Assuming Kihei doesn’t come back, out of a possible 200 mins per game, I feel like about 135 of those are already decided. 35 for Reece, about 30 each for Franklin & Gardner, and Shedrick/Caffaro sharing the 40 at C.
What I’m interested in does TB play Franklin at the 2, and play Murray/Milicic at the 3? Or play McKneely a lot in a 3 guard lineup? Or do Bond or Dunn make an earlier-than-expected contribution?
I do know the thing that will make my head explode is if none of those happen, and Poindexter plays a good chunk of Kihei’s minutes while Murray, Milicic & McKneely barely play.
If that latter scenario happens then I’ll legitimately start to wonder if the game actually has passed Tony by because that would mean either he’s lost it or the first years and last years class are no good (if they can’t unseat Malachi freaking Poindexter for minutes). Luckily I don’t think this will be the case and actually expect a deeper rotation next year because we’ll have a lot more playable depth than this year. I’m expecting something like 2017 with Guy and Jerome playing a lot despite having a number of veteran guards
I think McKneely rounds out our starting 5 given his ball handling ability and experience in the packline. We will see the starters especially Reece and Gardner play a lot as expected, but we’ll be able to spell Jayden and Franklin more with Traudt/Igor and Murray/Bond. My hope is that Tony really expands the bench in non-con and settles on a 8-9 player rotation where we ride the hot hand so it’s not always a given that Franklin plays 30 minutes for example; he could play 10 and Murray could play 25 on a particular night if Taine is playing better. I’d also like to see us tinker with small ball lineups where Traudt plays the 5 and bigger lineups where Igor or Jayden play the 3 in a pinch. I’d just really like to see us leverage the talent we have and get as many shooters on the court as possible.
The big advantage we will have is returning a number of experienced players in the packline so I do expect a much better non con next year just given that familiarity while we work in younger guys with less experience. My biggest question is what to do with Reece’s back up PG minutes if LJ doesn’t reclass.
I’m also being a little TIC here as I don’t think even remotely that Tony has lost it, but I would be pretty annoyed and incredibly frustrated if we’re trotting out a 7 man rotation next year with Malachi in the mix. That would mean only two of Igor, Carson, Taine, Isaac M, Isaac T, bond, and Dunn would be logging minutes. Can’t have that without expecting a lot of attrition and it would set a concerning precedent about favoring experience
I think there’s a huge variety of possibilities for how the minutes breakout next year. In the interest of keeping it simpler though, I’m assuming Kihei and Kody leave, Gardner stays, and LJ doesn’t come. In that scenario, my best guess on minutes/game is:
Definitely in the rotation:
Reece 30-35
Gardner 25-35
Franklin 20-25
Kadin 20-25
Papi 15-25
Isaac M 10-20
Isaac T 10-20
Maybe in the rotation:
1 of Bond or Dunn (other just spot mins) 10
1 of Igor or Taine (other just spot mins) 10
Poindexter 0-10 (depends on if Isaac or Franklin can give of support or not)
Other walkons just spot mins
Also, if Kihei stays and/or LJ comes, they would be part of the definite minutes group and reduce the mins of everyone else except Reece, and especially those of Armaan and Isaac.
That’s what I think Tony will do. And I should say, I’m picking 2 of the 4 first years to play real minutes and assume the Isaac’s are the likely ones - easily could be Dunn and Bond instead.
My guess by the start of ACC play (assuming Kihei leaves and London Johnson doesn’t reclassify - as I think either would take up one of the starting guard positions) is:
Reece
McKneely
Franklin
Gardner
Shedrick
Major parts of rotation:
Caffaro
Traudt
Igor or Taine or Bond
And I’d think, going back up to 12-13 scholarship players, Bennett will need to broaden the rotation from 7 to 8/9 players at minimum or it will be transfer city.
That’s a pretty good personal take honestly. Some people are expecting Malachi to take a leap going into his 3rd year. Logging major minutes in the ACC as newcomers are usually reserved for the one and done type of kid. If these recruits a remotely close then yes it’s a possibility. On the other hand what’s the chance of more than one of them with that type of ability. So in other words all this stuff is fun but sometimes we as fans hype ourselves up way too much for our liking. Truth is even with these recruits it’s still gonna taupe ample time to help. Let’s just hope the gelling is a bit quicker than it happened this year.
If London Johnson doesn’t reclassify, looking doubtful btw, you need another ball handler. I’d keep an eye on that in the portal. This is assuming Kihei is gone and McKneely doesn’t fit there.
Even with a shorter bench, TB just went tighter rotation so there are definitely guys unhappy with pt and lack of game experience. Could still be “transfer city”
You’re laser focused on just one side of the court with not very much concern for experience. You’re going to be disappointed if you think Bennett feels the same way.
I think this is most likely however you have to add Malachi in this mix for ball handling and after his experience this year he will proly be more aggressive offensively when he gets chances. You saw glimses of it in the first half vs FSU
I would have given him second half minutes Saturday. But I dont count, of course
Not one end of the court. I’m focused on net results combining both ends since basketball players play both ends unlike football.
Maybe it’s just me but I’d rather a guy score 12 and give up 9 than a guy score 2 and give up 6. But the 2nd guy plays defense though - so much better than the first. While he also wears out his team on offense physically and mentally because they have to play 3 on 5 on offense.
Watch the 2019 game against Syracuse first 24 minutes vs the last 16 minutes. Amazing how great offense demoralizes an opponent where they aren’t as good on their offensive end.
Bad offense energizes opponents on their offensive end. I know this from playing and coaching too. Not many things are more depressing than not scoring for 5-6 minutes at a time…. The players feel it - on both sides.
And 3 Man Weave debates it every offseason! The results seem to mirror what you are saying more than just continuity=good. Young teams that stay together have leaps the next season while old teams stay mediocre. Of course, that analysis doesn’t work as neatly with multi-year transfers.
This is simply not true. And realistically the highest rated of the kids (Traudt and Johnson if he comes) face much tougher roads to PT than McKneely and Bond given roster construction.
Franklin in particular is IMO the most likely for a big jump in productivity if he gets more minutes next to a good shooter.
Franklin + “shooter” + one PG = potentially a big jump in productivity from our guards, with a fair amount of continuity, but the productivity jump would come from someone not currently in the rotation.
Edit - sorry, that’s not quite right. I’m positing a jump from Franklin from both his normal variation, and from the effect of playing next to a better shooter.
Are you guys expecting McKneeley to come in and shoot in the low 40s from 3 at a decent volume? Kihei is at 37%. I’m not so sure that someone is going to come in and shoot much better than that at high volume from the 2.