I think either 538 or the athletic has looked into it and found that it does with early games. I think a perfectly valid point is that we should push it a bit against lower seeded teams. More possessions means that vastly superior talent will win out as the sample size progresses. But the idea only applies when there is a big difference in talent differential.
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I think it is probable that weāll have a championship level lineup in the next 5 years. When it comes to being the final of 68 teams in the field, all bets are off. Gonzaga and Duke have a championship level lineup every year, but the tournament is a beautiful mess and crazy things happen. All you can ask for is a roster that gives you chance
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We really lucked out getting to play Carsen Edwards that year 
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At the end of the day, to @JoeBoxley point the tournament is a crap shoot, and the best team does not always win or even do well. However, the teams that perform at a high level and make the Final 4s also showcase a couple NBA caliber players. That Hoosiers dream ish is left at the movies.
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Dave, Iām amazed at how much you complain about the championship run. You almost seem annoyed by it.
āHoney, if you would have pushed harder and started your breathing exercises earlier, our beautiful, healthy, dream-come-true baby would have been born an hour earlierā¦and if you would have allowed the 3 Mās in the delivery room, labor would have been completely painless.ā
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haha. Tough to prepare for that.
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The real life jimmy chitwood was Bobby plump who went on the play for butler and in the nba.
So even the Hoosiers championship team (Milan High School) had an nba player.
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Never liked that movie cause we didnt get to see what the opposing team went through to get to finals!
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That may be the most rational reason Iāve ever heard for not liking that movie and way better than my itās stupid and it doesnāt work that way view.
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Hereās more info on the Bracket Breakers thing. Last year, their stuff was on The Athletic.
https://news.furman.edu/2021/03/18/2021-ncaa-tournament-how-slingshot-will-find-us-march-upsets-cinderellas-and-underdogs/
āSlower pace = more upsetsā is one of those things that makes some intuitive sense, but Iām skeptical how much it holds true in practice. For example, I think our efficiency is tied to our pace. Itās not just an equation where you multiply points per possession X number of possessions.
My quibble with some of our early round games recently in the Bennett era is more that we donāt attack matchups / mismatches enough.
Hereās the Athletic article, for anyone whoās a subscriber.
Prior to the tourney (and prior to our Covid shutdown) they predicted us as having a 36.6% chance of ADVANCING (thatās right, not of being upset, but of advancing), which seems like it was a glitch.
Top 3 overdogs (1-6 seeds) likely to lose:
- UVa (36.6%) (4-seed, lost to Ohio, Covid pause immediately prior)
- BYU (46.7%) (6-seed, lost to play-in winner UCLA)
- Wiscy (46.8%) (9-seed, beat Roy and forced him into retirement)
Top 3 underdogs (11-16 seeds) likely to win:
- Ole Miss (29.9) (NIT)
- GT (25.5) (9-seed, lost to Sister Jean, didnāt have the ACC POY because of Covid)
- VCU (19.5) (10-seed, DNP-Covid)
Hard to draw much from last year given the Covid wackiness. Also shows how much seeds can change in the last few days.
Wahoos
Complain?? Love the title. Maybe I wasnāt clear.
I was simply trying to state our title had little to do with pace and everything to do with talent and shot makers. We had more great shot makers from all 3 levels on that team than any other team in UVA history. And we had more of them than any opponent we played in the madness.
And thatās what it takes to win in March. There may be one defensive struggle type game in a 6 game run (Oregon) ā¦ but most teams that get to the sweet 16 can flat out make shots.
So we had to match Auburn down the stretch. We had to match Purdueās shot making, we had to match Texas Techās shot making.
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It was like having Wally Walker, Barry Parkhill/ Sean Singletary, and Bryant Stith level bucket getters on one team
Man those three in 19 just amazing especially Dre matter of factly deciding he would win for us vs TTU
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To your point Fresh about our path vs. Texas Tech that year.
The sum of the seed numbers Texas Tech played in 6 games was 26. (2 one seeds and 2 two seeds)
The sum of the seed numbers for UVA played in 6 games was 48. (Didnāt face a 1 or 2 seed)
But path usually matters for all champs.
Maybe except 2018 Villanova who just obliterated everyone in their path.
In 6 games they won by 26, 23, 12, 12, 16, and 17
Would be an interesting research project to see the sum of the opponentsā seeds for all NCAA champs since there were 64 teamsā¦
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confused. isnt two 1s and two 2s an sum of 6?
Iāve seen that study before. See if I can find it.
No doubt we had a favorable path in 2019. I will push back on treating Oregon like a typical 12 seed. By March, Oregon was way better than an average 12 seed.
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Iād argue the only favorable match up we had during the tourney was Auburn in the final four without Okeke. That Oregon team was terrifying (going off of memory, they were playing like a top 5 team by KenPom metrics in the previous 10 games before playing us) and I would have rather played Tennessee than Purdue in the Elite 8 in fear that Carson Edwards would get hot. Texas Tech didnāt make the finals by accident, so arguing that we lucked out by playing them seems a little silly to me.
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Oklahoma in the 2nd round was a relatively weak opponent in my opinion. We also caught a break that TT big man (Owens?) hurt his ankle before our game.
But Iām certainly not apologizing for winning it all that year.
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Oh and by the way weād be a tournament team this year too.
Iām sorry but stating this as fact is a little ridiculous. I pounded the drum as much as anyone to play Igor and Taine more for their long-term development, but they are clearly not playing for a reason. This would imply that Tony is seeing them play well in practice but is choosing not to play them at the expense of a tournament appearance, for what? To avoid ruffling any feathers with the veterans on the team? How low is your opinion of Tony?
I think you have to come to terms with the fact that you arenāt present in practice. You have ZERO clue how Igor is picking up the defense or how well Taine is protecting the ball against his counterparts. Again, Iām firmly in the play them anyway because our ceiling is low with this team but Iām not deluding myself into thinking they are difference between us being a tournament team or not. In fact, Iād argue we would probably give up more defensively than they would add on offense but itās all pointless to argue. I just donāt appreciate the insinuation that Tony is committing coaching malpractice because thatās really what youāre doing. We are also talking about international prospects who more often than not take a lot more time to get caught up to the speed of the US game.
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