2022-23 Lineup Conjecture fun

Yes those 4 games totaling 6 plus a 14 and a 6 in their first 2 games - so 26 in all.
You’ll see just how tough a road that was when I post the totals for all champs this century.

Ah ok. forgot about round 1 which we now know we should never ever do

I disagree with the notion that we lucked out with the draw in 2019. We played the hottest teams basically every round. Even Oklahoma destroyed ole miss in round 1. Oregon was on a crazy run. Purdue, auburn, and TT were playing fantastic basketball.
On paper the seeds do not do those opponents justice.

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Is this right? Auburn beat Kansas, UNC and Kentucky to get to Minny?

We definitely had favorable path but we earned it I think

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yeah, but KU was meh that year (4 seed?) and at least we can point to having handled UNC in the dome, as well. I was sort of excited to get a chance to play UK but the way Purdue was playing i’m not sure they were any less of a challenge than UK.

It’s weird b/c even us “getting” a 12 seed vs Oregon is not really reflective of how they were playing. feels like just as hard a game as Wofford or Houston (UK path)

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Same. I really wanted to play UK that season

My bad - you’re right - no way to know about this year’s game performance with the M’s playing all of Statt’s Malachi’s and some of Armaan’s and Clark’s minutes.
Just my opinion based off what I saw and how the team’s energy was when they played vs. when Statts and Poindexter played. - Lots of slumped shoulders.
Taine only played 7 games of significant non garbage minutes, 4 of which were against Power 5 teams.
He shot 12/22 FG’s – EFG% of 69%
(He didn’t miss a 2 pointer - 4/4) and scored 35 points in those 95 minutes and had 3 turnovers, 8 rebounds, 1 block, 2 steals
Also - even overall on the season Taine is 2nd on the team in Effective FG % only behind Shedrick. And by the way Igor is 3rd.
In case you’re wondering - Stattmann is dead last and Franklin is 2nd to last.

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Purdue beat 6 seed Villanova by 26 and then won a classic against 2 seed Tennessee (who was very good). Not to mention edwards had one of the greatest tournament runs ever.

Oregon was on a 7 or 8 game winning streak going into our game. They destroyed 5 seed Wisconsin in round 1. Completely overwhelmed them.

You woulda rather had Guns Ups path? Not me

Yes. Purdue played at a crazy high level vs Tennessee. That helped us… in the end ha

Edit: I also was beyond confident with our team
against anyone that year. Especially teams who never played us before. Not sure we wanted Duke again

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Here are the sum of seeds for all national champ opponents during the madness each year.

To Explain - in 2021 Baylor played a 16, 9, 5, 3, 2, and 1 totaling 36

2021 - Baylor 36
2020 - None
2019 - Virginia 48 (Played a 5 and 3 seed in Final 4)
2018 - Villanova 37
2017 - UNC 34
2016 - Villanova 29
2015 - Duke 39
2014 - UConn 28
2013 - Louisville - 51 (Vacated title)
2012 - Kentucky 37
2011 - UConn 39
2010 - Duke 38
2009 - UNC 35
2008 - Kansas 48 (played 2 one seeds in the Final 4)
2007 - Florida 36
2006 - Florida 46
2005 - UNC 42
2004 - UConn 40
2003 - Syracuse 34
2002 - Maryland 36
2001 - Duke 40
2000 - Mich State 43
1999 - UConn 45
1998 - Kentucky 38
1997 - Arizona 38
1996 -Kentucky 36
1995 - UCLA 35
1994 - Arkansas 44
1993 - UNC 33
1992 - Duke 39
1991 - Duke 41
1990 - UNLV 54
1989 - Michigan 36
1988 - Kansas 39
1987 - Indiana 42
1986 - Louisville 45
1985 - Villanova 20 (1st year of the 64 team tournament)

p.s. UVA’s path to the final in 2016 would have totaled a 42 and in 2018 would have totaled a 45 and in 2014 a 44.
p.p.s. To answer Fresh’s question … Texas Tech had a harder path in 2019 to the final than all previous champs except the very 1st one - Villanova.

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85 Nova run just wow. NCState proly looked similar in 83?

Man so special when we won it all. However it happened our team responded

Edit: would have to just assign some high number to States run with less game(s)

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It is probably worthwhile to do this calculation excluding at least the first round if not the second. If you’re a one seed you’re going to be starting with a 24

NC State actually did play 6 games in 1983 and totaled a 30 - but did beat 2 one seeds.
Nova beat a 9, 1, 5, 2, 2, and 1

Maybe - but isn’t the point the ease of the path?

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But part of that “ease” is earned. It’s the reward for being a 1 seed

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This info is great though looking back as these are teams I maybe saw twice during the year and no clue their trajectory. Thanks yo

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The thing is, this approach doesn’t really tell you the “east of the path”. Seeds aren’t fully reflective of what teams are the best because they are based on resumes from an entire season. Teams that sustained injuries late, had a fall off in form, etc. are over-seeded, and teams that caught fire late, got healthy, etc. are under-seeded. Seeds are rewards for a team’s results over a season but aren’t a true ranking of their quality. To determine the actual difficulty of the path, you’d do better looking at Kenpom or Torvik and and maybe restricting the time period you’re looking at.

Case in point, we were a 1 seed the year before but lost maybe our most important player to injury during the ACC tournament, so we weren’t necessary the best team in the country anymore after that. If we’d been missing Hunter the whole year, we probably aren’t a 1 seed. Oregon during our run was punished for some early mess ups, but they were as hot as any team in the nation to end that season. Anyway, it’s interesting, but I don’t think it actually is measuring what you’re saying it’s measuring. There may be no perfect way to do it, but I’d say this is probably less close to ideal than using other metrics.

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Fine - just say it directly that I wasted 90 minutes for the benefit of the forum readers!!!
:crazy_face::rofl::crazy_face::joy:

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Honestly it’s a cool analysis generally speaking. Just have to keep in mind that each run is different

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Yeah, I should clarify, it’s definitely interesting. I just don’t think any team’s championship run should be judged in that way. You get to play the teams you get to play. We played those lower seeds because they beat the higher seeds, haha. I mean, what do you want? The higher seeds were given the chance to get to us, and they didn’t.

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