2023-24 Rotations and Lineups

Yes

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I’m now prepared for Harris to start next to Beekman, then (perhaps) play more of a back-up role as the season progresses and as others prove themselves on D. After all, he was recruited for this very reason, to be a KC replacement.

We all know that CTB is a Defense First coach, love it or hate it. There will be more low-score games in our future.

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Hilarious.

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I remember thinking we were going to win another title after the first game of 2020-2021 season. We ran 5 out and just looked absolutely unstoppable. Then we lost to San Fran the next game lol

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Dude that game had us all giddy. Towson?

Edit: 21-22

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I was hoping that he was a hedge against both Reece and Kihei leaving after last year instead of direct replacement for Kihei.

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I’m waiting to see the first 4-5 games when it comes to lineups. The automatic Dante = Kihei = bad combo with Reece is a bit premature. The similarity with Kihei is height, but that doesn’t make them the same player (I think that Dante appears to be much different offensively for starters). If Reece has become a creditable 3-point threat, then I can see times they are both on the floor.

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Yup. But now Nick Timberlake is gonna win a natty (haha). Agree @htraylor , Kihei proved that he was at least a good shooter early and often. Harris hasn’t.

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Dante was absolutely recruited as an option to replace Reece should Reece leave (paired with another 2023 rookie guard like Blue Cain or maybe Bliss). Had Reece gone pro as was projected in December, Dante was a no-brainer transfer take at the time, two years of Big East starting experience plus a redshirt semester to get comfortable in Charlottesville.

That said, Reece came back and Dante is here. And Dante still is a former Big East Tourney MOP, rising RS Junior with high major experience and a redshirting semester to get comfortable, whereas (the admittedly probably higher ceiling) Gertrude is new to college ball and has meaningful injury rust. Dante playing 20 mpg gives us a higher floor, especially early on, with good size and shooting from Rohde and iMac plus whatever improved offense a healthy and determined Reece is going to put up.

I still like Dante as a defense-first bench option, especially against smaller guard-oriented teams. Imagine VT’s Pedulla getting shut down by Reece, finally breaths easier when Reece heads to the bench for a breather, only for Harris to now be harassing him.

Harris is kind of the guard version of Minor to me. He had to score at his last stop, but here he gets to be surrounded by plus scoring options on the wings and can focus on defense and supporting stats (rebounding in Minor’s case, assists for Dante). If he can do what good-Kihei did and hit his room and rhythm kickout 3’s at a 35% clip while keeping his A:TO ratio at better than 2-to-1, then I’m totally cool with him for 20 minutes a game off the bench.

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Year 6 for him?

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Working all morning, treating myself to a coffee break and a check of LRA aaaand—Kihei wars. Awesome. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

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Only if he actually shoots them when open. Hasn’t been the case the last 4 years at UVA.
But he won’t fear late contests since he is an actual ACC level athlete.
I just don’t think you can be a high minutes guy at that size in the ACC unless you make opponents fear your range,

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It seems like the collective fear is a starting/primary backcourt of Reece, Dante, and iMac, which makes me, at least, flash back to that terrible stretch of games this past Feb. where we were undersized at all 5 positions, and teams could have 1 dude defend Armaan/iMac tight and 4 defenders packing the paint.

If Dante is the first guard off the bench, then I’ll probably feel at least 25% less angst about our lineup choices this season.

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Because, sadly not joking about this, Kihei was our most confident post player. Both Hauser and TM3 attempted more 3s than 2s, 35+% of Huff’s shots were from 3, and Kihei easily led the team in FTA (it was one of the worst teams at drawing FTs in all of college hoops).

Tons of spacing, no interior threats at all. McKoy embracing an interior role, and the coaching staff embracing McKoy, really would have helped that team a lot offensively.

Edit - Just realized I was using KenPom’s rate adjusted numbers on FTA. In terms of FTA/game UVA was comfortably last in '20-21. Technically we had 1 more FTA on the season than Iowa State, but they played 1 fewer game, so their average was better.

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One of the reasons I start hyperventilating when I think of Harris playing with Reece is that the staff’s last 4 seasons don’t really scream out ā€œtrust us to coach good offense, Haney! No need to worry!ā€

Post natty offense, adjusted:

  • 234 (unspeakably, unwatchably bad)
  • 17 (good, but was it? see below**)
  • 85 (meh)
  • 72 (meh+)

** We had two of the best shooters in the NBA currently, plus a center who shot ~39% from 3, at decent volume, and who was a PNR finisher monster in previous years. And we only finished #17 in offense? I mean, there are various reasons why, practice restrictions and limited time to gel high among them, but I think you have to chalk that up mostly to staff not using its resources very well.

And I say this as someone who used to defend Tony from an offensive perspective. His last 4 years as an offensive coach do not inspire confidence. Someone want to talk me out of this? Or do folks want to think my offensive concerns are just haney being haney? (psst - they’re not)

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My issue with this is that Reece being ā€œcredibleā€ means he’s fine. Enough to make teams respect him, but not a threat to plan around. Based on his whole career to date, that’s probably what we should expect. If Harris is only that too (which his stats scream he is - or that’s he’s a bad shooter) that means we have one true shooter on the floor when those two are out there - Rohde or McKneely. Maybe Groves plays the 4 in that situation but then is that even a good defensive line-up? And we’ve heard little about him this preseason so I’m not expecting much.

Our offense does not work well when we do not have elite shooting from the guard positions. It just doesn’t. There’s a reason all our best teams featured Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrentes, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome at the guard spots. For the past few years staff have tried to experiment with getting shooting from the bigs instead, just not having much shooting and going more to the midrange, etc. It sucked for the most part and led to meh offenses that were easy to game plan around by opposition in games that mattered since it’s so much easier to shut down. Dynamic guards with elite shooting rule basketball, particularly in the post season, for a reason.

I don’t want to do another season where we are mediocre shooters from the guard spots. I’ve watched the movie before, several times, and I’d just rather we didn’t. But maybe Harris has learned to be a 35% three point shooter and it won’t matter.

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For me I think Harris should probably be used more than Nigel Johnson and less than Kihei…

We’ll see how he ACTUALLY looks before I make any overarching conclusions though.

I think if he’s the first guard off the bench playing 15-20 minutes a game and overlapping with Reece for 5ish, maybe 10 minutes max…. No one is really upset with that.

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Ha ha, I’m going to give out an award for the most politely worded ā€œHarris has been an awful shooter so far, but maybe that changed, because the future is unpredictableā€ post. :joy:

My view is that he has a range problem, and range problems are hard to overcome, but who knows. I’ve been wrong on the internet before. Several times a day, in fact. (see, I won’t be winning the award)

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Personnel was a very big issue. I’m the furthest thing from a Kihei defender but it’s a fact that we won a natty and had a phenomenal offense with Kihei playing meaningful mpg. I think a big reason why the subsequent offenses weren’t good (other than 2021, which I really do think Covid is to blame for that), we had Kihei playing too large of a role and his supporting cast was not great. I do think that changes this year. I also think Dante is more different from Kihei than he’s made out to be. As long as Dante understands his role offensively and the surrounding personnel are what they’re supposed to be, he can be a net positive. I don’t really care too much about his 3pt % because that’s not what his role should be. I just want him to help make things easier on the others. That’s his job.

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Minor quibble. Brogs is my favorite UVA hoops player of all time, was robbed of national POY his senior year and could pretty much do anything on a basketball court (and in life). But his career best 3FG% was lower than the career average of the other 4 guys and was only better than the 3rd best 3FG shooter on the team his senior year.

I agree with your overall point that CTB offenses struggle when they don’t have elite outside shooting, especially from the backcourt and having depth to your 3pt shooting helps a lot with being elite at it.

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