It’s that time of the year again! Let’s goooooo!
Since 4 seeds play 5 seeds (at least in theory), should we care more about regional location and who the #1 seed is in our bracket, rather than what seed we get? Or perhaps it is just about respect and wanting the 4 seed.
Being a 4 seed means more to avoid those pesky 12 seeds like Charleston or Oral Roberts.
Only reason I care about seeding is being a 4 seed would lock in one of Greensboro, Orlando, or Albany for next weekend. As a 5 seed we could go anywhere. Would also like to be in either the East or South if we happen to make the second weekend
In Vegas for a conference for the second weekend. One of the few here that wouldn’t mind UVA landing in the West.
If Bracket Matrix true seeds survive today, and you go down the list of the top 16 one by one and put each team in the closest location available, you’d end up with this:
Edit — Columbus is closer to West Lafayette.
Birmingham / Alabama + Houston
Des Moines / Kansas + Baylor
Orlando / Indiana + Virginia
Sacramento / UCLA + Arizona
Albany / UConn + Xavier
Columbus / Purdue + Marquette
Denver / Texas + Gonzaga
Greensboro / K State + Tennessee
The overall win pct of each seed drops from 78% to 64% in between a 4 and a 5 seed. There’s been 15 12 seeds who have pulled an upset in the first round over the past 10 years.
To put it more clearly, you’re absolutely right. I don’t wanna see us on that 5 line playing Blowjob Bob and having to deal with Max Abmas in our opening game of the tourney.
While this is true iirc if you look at just the last few years 13’s have outperformed 12’s.
Outside of the history, most of the 12’s and 13’s are in the same range on KenPom this year. Not sure there will be much of a difference for the first round. Same with 4’s and 5’s for the second round. 5’s might actually be better analytically
The 4-13 matchup is still scary. 4’s went undefeated last year but every game was decided by single digits, and unfortunately we know all too well what it’s like to be on the receiving end of that upset. But looking at BracketMatrix projections matchup-wise I like the 4/13 line far better than the 5/12 this year. That’s always subject to change though based on what the committee decides.
It’s because the committee never (or almost never) puts a high major below the 11 line, and those 9-11 high-major teams have lost a ton of games. Meanwhile the mid-majors at 12 and 13 have won a ton of games, albeit against lesser teams throughout the year.
Put a shit team like WVU at a 13, which is where they would really belong (if they even should make the tourney), and they’d lose to a four, just like they’ve lost to good teams all year.
The committee has released more transparency about how they go about the process and I believe it was said most of the field is set and seeded by Sat afternoon. Point being, last night likely wouldn’t have dropped us off the z4 line.
Mainly don’t want the VCU/Dayton winner in the first round. That seems cruel to force a 5 seed to play the A10 champ.
Looking at bracket matrix now there is a clear gap within the 13 line. Yale and Lafayette are the opponents we want. But I would feel just as bad about Kent State (they probably scare me the most of all the non-A-10 12-13 seeds) and Iona as I would about Oral Bob or Drake
Seems there are teams that suddenly become hot in the NCAAT, well beyond what they were doing the regular season. The team executes well, there’s a key guy they rally around.
My candidate for the UVA player going HAM is Armaan Franklin.
As a point of reference, most 12 and 13 seeds are like playing Wake Forest (in terms of entire regular season efficiency) or Miami if you weight recent performance more heavily (efficiency over the last month).
Not very much a distinction between potential 12 and 13.
VCU, Drake, Iona and Yale stand out as the hottest teams recently.
My other candidate is Reece. He won’t need to play 3 nights in a row again and look how dominant he was against UNC after some rest
Selfishly want the hoos in Greensboro i could oull a double dip watch Dre and Hawks against Ty and GW on fri then just up for a 2nd round game.
Oral Roberts hasn’t lost in two months
Yeah they are next on that list. Playing top 50 ball.