So on TB’s top 30 KenPom offenses, the top 3 & 4 scorers combined for:
2018/19 Guy, Hunter Jerome, Diakite: 44.2 PPG, 51.6 PPG. KenPom #2
2015/16 Brogdon, Gill, London, Tobey: 43 PPG, 50.3 PPG. KenPom #8
2020/21 Hauser, Huff, Murphy, Clark: 40.3 PPG, 49.8 PPG. KenPom #17
2014/15 Brogdon, Anderson, Gill, Atkins: 37.8 PPG, 45.4 PPG. KenPom #21
2013/14 Brogdon-Harris-Gill-Anderson: 33.3 PPG, 41.1 PPG. KenPom #27
2017/18
Guy-Hall-Jerome-Hunter: 36.4 PPG, 45.6PPG. KenPom #30
First thought is Brogdon-AG-London is closer to the big three than I would have guessed. 2013/14 doesn’t fit the exercise well because after Malcolm and Joe the 3-6 scoring was very balanced. How do we think this year’s squad stacks up? My guess is the top 3 scorers will be Beekman, McKneely, and Rohde in some order. Dunn is imo the most likely 4th leading scorer. Do we think those guys could get up to 36-38 PPG from the top 3 and 45-46 PPG from the top 4 we saw in the 2014/15 and 2017/18 seasons? I think it’s very possible. I think at a conservative projection we are looking at:
Reece: 11.7 PPG. I’m going with Devon Hall’s senior average. I expect a similar late career jump is a low end outcome for Reece this year.
IMac: 10.6 PPG. What Ty averaged as a sophomore. Joe, Malcolm, and Kyle averaged more
Rohde: 10.1 PPG. Armaan Franklin averaged 11.1 his first year after transferring in. Think slightly worse than that (on hopefully better efficiency?) is a reasonable baseline for Rohde.
Dunn: 7PPG. The 4th leading scorer on a college team almost has to get to 7 points by default. I expect us to be halfway competent so even if it’s not Dunn our 4th leading scorer will get at least 7PPG.
So as a baseline I have us at 32.4 PPG, 39.4PPG. I suspect we’ll see another 3-4 points spread amongst the Reece/IMac/Rohde group. Can Dunn, or anyone else, get up in the 9-10 PPG region and give us a legitimate 4th threat?