Not only that, but approved an extension of Kitchings!
Only big difference is one is her guy and one isnāt.
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Not defending Kitchings, but itās not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Bronco and company were in years 4, 5, and 6 when there was pressure to change things up. We are just now entering those years of the Eliot/Kitchings era.
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8 wins he def stays. 6 or less and he should be shown the door. Hell, he should show himself the door. 7 wins is on the fence either way. See if recruiting HS has picked up. And if funding is still solid for more portal entries. The good thing is I think about half the portal entries have another year or two left. Thatās a positive and there is some good young talent on the team. there is room for hope but they have to win this season.
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6 wins has to be the the bar. Itās interesting that Vegas is becoming very high on the Hoos. Iām seeing O/E at 7.5 which is a big jump from the spring.
Historically Vegas has been spot on with their assessment of the Hoos
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Iām with you here. Iād fire him at 7 wins unless the schedule turns out to be materially harder (e.g. top ~30 schedule in the country instead of one of the 2 weakest power 4 schedules) than it currently seems.
The goal here canāt be to get back to regularly being above .500, even if thatās the historical standard for the program.
We are apparently going āall inā on football. The north star has got to be to make football an asset rather than a liability to UVAās case ahead of the 2028 round of realignment. In a 16 team playoff world, that means being ranked and playing in games with playoff implications.
If Tony canāt get us there, weāve got to pull the trigger and bring in someone else who would then have a 3 year runway to get to that outcome.
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Well yes, its also not apples to apples because Bronco had actually accomplished some things at this point.
Isnāt funding going to be the same year-to-year for the whole roster going forward? ~$15m for the roster regardless of donors (a few local business deals non-withstanding)? Same as everyone else (likely less)?
Iād fire him at 7 unless one of the wins is tech, but no shot we fire him at 7. (Iād also have fired him at the end of the last two seasons/never have hired him to begin with though)
Iām actually pretty frustrated because this is a schedule and cash infusion that sets itself up for an Indiana type trick-of-the-schedule playoff appearance, but because we had to give that money to a coach who hadnāt accomplished anything here or as a HC he isnāt able to use the money as effectively as a new coach like Cig. We could be last yearās SMU or Indiana with a strong season, but I just donāt see it with this coaching staff.
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If you canāt get your shit together in three years (four, including his OC stint at NC State) you have no business being an OC.
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I think 5 and heās fired. 6+ he gets another year, but no extension. Probably no extension no matter what he does short of 10 wins, heās still got 3 years after this one. Maybe an extension with no increase in the buyout or something.
But letās be serious, when has UVA ever fired a coach after a winning season or even a 500 season or even a 6-7 season after a bowl loss? Thatās not happening.
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Everything has to be prioritized through the filter of positioning UVA for 2028 realignment.
A 7 win football program is just as good as a 5 win program.
History be damned, we are resourcing it more now than ever in order to break historic norms. Weāve got to aspire to be a top 25 or 30 football program by 2028. Top 10 in basketball and top 30 in football (and the ratings that come with those types of programs + VA carriage fees + UNC tandem) should position us ok ahead of the next seismic shift in college football.
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For me: go to a bowl thatās not in a Baseball stadium in Boston or NYC, preferably with a breakfast food or mayonnaise sponsor. Beat VPI. Get doused in and/or eat the food product / anthropomorphized food product.
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I donāt understand how these statements donāt contradict?
Iām afraid we are way overrating the relevance of these going forward. Mediacos are spinning their cable networks out left and right, Cablecos are feeling more and more empowered to fight back on carriage fee hostage taking with these sports rightsholders, and ESPN is launching their digital flagship product this September with a clear emphasis on that for the future. Decisions this go around are not going to be made based on carriage fees.
I still like our chances as long as Bubba Cunningham and Greg Sankey are in their current jobsā¦ but if those guys move along Iām afraid it gets more dicey.
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I shared in Lisaās joy when I too finally cracked the code.
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Essentially a 5 win and 7 win team is effectively the same ā not nationally relevant and not helpful to UVAās strategic long term outlook.
The top 25 last year were all 9+ win teams. Tony will have better talent to date and the easiest schedule thatāll heāll probably ever have at UVA this Fall. Heās got to show the potential that he can get the program to 9+ wins. With this schedule, Iām not sure we should settle for anything less than 8 wins this year.
Agree on carriage fees. They still matter today but are rapidly losing relevance. Thatās why getting our 2 revenue programs to national relevance and capable of ratings at or above the average power 2 team is critical. Carriage fees may still matter some, but overall ratings potential will matter more, imo.
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The good news is that a 16 team playoff means more regular season games and thus teams that will be nationally relevant (and can be big ratings games). We need to be playing in some of those games, even if we donāt make the playoff.
6 or 7 win teams donāt generate that type of viewership weād need to feel good ahead of 2028.
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Okay, I agree with you on most of that then. But I do think getting back to a bowl does make a difference in what youāre able to pitch to recruits (and donāt sleep on the extra practice ahead of the portal!), so I think there is a delineation at 6 and then again around 9. I would agree 6 and 7 are the same thing though, barring that additional win being against Tech.
8 would shut me up about Elliott for a bit because my friends wouldnāt listen to it (unless/until he slams back down to earth the next year). Iād face more side-eyes than now from my friends at 7 wins, but it probably wouldnāt stop me from preaching my anti-Elliott agenda, so I guess 7.5 is my personal line for next season.
Unfortunately Iām not even going to pretend playoff is in the cards even against this terrible schedule (even though it should). I just simply do not see Desā offense operating at the SMU/Indiana level that would require.
God imagine if this was the 2019 team looking at this schedule with the cash infusion we just got and new facilitiesā¦ Or we still had Bronco and were eying year 2 of LaNorris Sellers (longshot once SC came calling, I know!)ā¦ Makes me wince thinking about it.
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Agree with 7.5 wins as the benchmark for me feeling hope for Elliott. Iād still have plenty of fun watching a 7-win season, but under the circumstances E needs to do more than just muddle through to a low-tier bowl.
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I agree with your general argument. Only minor quibble (and quibbling is why weāre all here right?) is I think 25-30 range is just not reasonable for UVA. I think being top 45-50 with the occasional year where weāre in the conference championship game is probably what the goal should be.
Then pair that with a more elite basketball program, strong overall athletic department, and the attractiveness of Virginia to the SEC and BIG and I think weāre in a good spot.
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6 including win against VT and heās definitely not getting fired unless Urban Meyer has asked for the job. 6 with loss to VT then he should be fired but wouldnāt shock me if making a bowl was advertised as progress.
7+ heās totally safe, probably gets some sort of token contract extension.
5- heās gone unless thereās a really emphatic win against VT to end the season (which seems like an impossibility if the team comes into that game with 4 or fewer wins)
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Luckily the schedules are more than manageable for the next 5 seasons. They have the potential to get 8+ wins each season, but obviously recruiting needs to pick up, OL and DL must be really good and the QB position needs to improve substantially. Maybe that starts this upcoming season. I hope so. Here is a link to future schedules Virginia Football Future Schedules - Virginia Cavaliers Official Athletic Site
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