Caffaro was pretty rough when he got run that year. IMO it was as simple as you just always needed one of Dunn or Shedrick to pair with BVP or Gardner. BVP and Gardner were defensively bad for us but ALSO didnāt compliment each other offensively. BVP was best with Dunn in Inside Triangle (we played Dunn on the wing and teams didnāt realize how badly they could cheat off of him yet) but he offered the ability to defend bigs or roam to help BVP. And Gardner was best with Shedrick in Sides.
They found playing small ball against UNC who had neither Bacot nor Nance available to them and they sat both Gardner and Shedrick to do so - and that somehow turned into playing Gardner and BVP together as a primary fixture which didnāt work.
Much better. 25th on an adjusted basis over that stretch.
The caveat is only one defense was in the top 100; GT at 79.
I joked in the early season that we needed to find some teams that play nice, chill defense, and we have and have taken advantage. Need to keep it going against more athletic defenses.
Yeah, the best shot would be to make it as one of the ACCās 2 auto-bids, but that would require finishing like 6th? Maybe a little lower if a team or two declines. Though I donāt know if the ACC gets to just roll their auto bids down if they decline, or if it gets released to the next best at-large. It would be a very bad look for the conference to have bargained for these auto bids and then have teams not want them.
Per Torvik, we have roughly a 25% chance in each of our next 3, then small favorites against FSU and a coin flip at Cuse. I think we get 2 wins out of it, but 1 is more likely than 3. If we get 2, weād have to go 2-1 in the ACCT just to get to 500. I guess that might be possible if weāre like the 10 seed playing the 15 seed and then the 7 seed.
I donāt think the team would be particularly motivated to play in the NIT, but weāll be done before the portal opens and it shouldnāt delay our coaching search anyway.
I think the more relevant poll is just who do you want back. For me, thatās everyone except TJ Power, and maybe Bliss depending on exactly what his injury situation has been and heās been doing to team morale.
Ames, Saunders, and Lang: I donāt want them to leave like I want TJP to leave, but if they did, I wouldnāt be bothered.
Weāre being a little harsh on Saunders as heās returning from missing a few games and is clearly rusty, but heās just too much of a tweener at the 4. Still would love to retain him if possible, but think heās more of a role player than key piece.
Yeah, we played our best ball of the season when Saunders was out. Surprising to me too, as he was up there as our best front court player. But it shone a bright light on his lack of rebounding and desire to play more on the perimeter.
Really only think Duke, Clemson, and Louisville are effective locks for the NCAAT right now, meaning Wake, SMU, and UNC are the teams you need to āroot forā.
1a. SMU looks good with computers but their resume lacks a single Q1 win; they play Clemson this week for their last āstatement winā opportunity before the ACCT.
1b. Wake is hated by the metrics but they do have two Q1 wins and a solid 7-6 record against Q1 and Q2, plus just beat fellow bubbler SMU. They get a shot at Duke as well for another Q1 win in a couple of weeks.
1c. UNCās not in as of today, but could be if they run the table to close the season which means beating Duke in 3 weeks as well as avoiding ābad lossesā to us, State, VT, Miami, and FSU. Anything less and I think theyāre out.
So letās say one of SMU or Wake makes it, the ACC gets four teams in the Dance. The ānext tierā of ACC teams right now ahead of us for NIT bids would be Wake/SMU, UNC, Pitt (15-10, 6-8), Stanford (16-10, 8-7)), and FSU (15-10, 6-8). I think the Wake/SMU loser would accept an NIT bid, as would Pitt and Stanford.
UNC has already declined the NIT once in recent years and could see it as ābeneath themā again, especially if it means Hubieās on his way out.
FSU would be an intriguing case, as to whether theyāre okay with the NIT being Leonardās retirement tour. Zero clue which way theyād lean, but I donāt think they look down on the NIT they way UNC would.
The ACC gets two auto-bids, but isnāt limited to two overall. Keep in mind the Big East, Big XII, and B1G have their own postseason tournament this year, the College Basketball Crown in Las Vegas, that will siphon 16 teams away. That could mean more spots for the ACC and SEC, so maybe the ACC sees 4 teams? If so, UVA, with a strong finish, could grab that 4th spot if UNC skips.
About that strong finish, weāre 13-13 (6-9). Three wins of the remaining five plus a win in the ACCT are all bare minimums just to finish with a winning record, which I believe the NIT still wants. Means we have to beat at least one of Wake/Clemson/UNC. We also have to compete with GT whoās also sitting at .500 overall and could make a similar run for NIT competition.
All in all, I say our shot at the NIT, hinging on so much (ACC gets 4+ teams in the Dance, the CBC opening up extra NIT spots for the ACC, UVA finishing strong enough to get in the discussion, and teams āaheadā of us declining an NIT invite), makes the whole proposition maybe 10% at best. Much more likely our season ends in the ACCT.
Yeah, same. I was absolutely in love with Saunders coming into the season, 100% thought he was going to be our best player. Hasnāt worked out that way, clearly.
Iād love for us to hang onto ARob, Cofie, Sharma, Gertrude, All-ACC PG Rohde, and iMac. Dai Dai is kinda on the edge, another good game and Iād add him to the list. To be clear, I doubt we even hang onto half those guys (if we keep Ron, which I donāt think we should but its not up to me, weāll do well to keep 30-50 mpg off the current roster. Less if we get someone else), but thatās who Iād like to keep.