It’s officially the offseason, and in the midst of the final out being recorded signaling the end of another great year of UVA baseball I like to do a fun exercise of projecting out next year’s starting lineup/pitching staff just to break the sadness and angst a little bit. Gonna split this up into two posts, first being the lineup and the second being the pitching staff.
Gotta emphasize that this is a very rough draft of what we’re likely to see, it doesn’t factor in any potential 1st year contributions as that would be impossible to do without knowing who is actually making it to Grounds, and while it will feature some of the transfer portal additions we currently know about we’ll almost certainly be adding more in the next couple of weeks/months who will earn playing time for us. It’s also assuming every player who played/is projected to play next year returns to the team, which definitely won’t happen. There will be attrition, and we’ll lose a couple of guys who are very good players but will be told in the offseason that there’s not a clear path to play every day for them and decide to go down a level where that’s more of a guarantee. It sucks but it happens just about every year. Anyways with that being said here’s how I think it shakes out on paper:
STARTING LINEUP:
1st: Henry Godbout (2B)
2nd: Eric Becker (SS)
3rd: Henry Ford (RF)
4th: Antonio Perrotta (1B)
5th: Chris Arroyo (DH) (JUCO transfer)
6th: Anthony Stephan (LF)
7th: Luke Hanson (3B)
8th: Trey Wells (C) (JUCO transfer)
9th: Aidan Teel (CF)
The question last offseason was ‘How do we replace the bats of Gelof, Teel, and O’Donnell?’ and we responded with a 2024 season where we put up a historic amount of runs and HR’s for our program. Do I think that gets replicated in 2025 and we take another step up? No that would be too much to ask, but there is more than enough talent returning to this lineup for us to have another elite campaign.
The trio of Godbout/Becker/Ford should all be fixtures in the top half of our order, and I’m very high on Perrotta who didn’t get very many AB’s this season but is a big, SEC sized 1st baseman who showed a lot of promise and pop in his limited time. Arroyo is a former Florida Gator who went the JUCO route this past season and put up big numbers as a two way player. He can play OF/1B/P but I slotted him at DH because it’s the easiest place to put him right now, especially if he does end up working his way into our bullpen as well. Stephan and Hanson both could be looking at platoon roles depending on how our defense shakes out, there’s gonna be a ton of competition in the OF and at 3rd this offseason. Guys like Walker Buchanan, Tommy Roldan and Tristan Head will get their chances if they stick around, and it doesn’t even factor in the potential return of Harrison Didawick, who according to a well sourced poster on TheSabre could be returning to work on his defense and raise his draft stock. If Harrison does come back you would easily slot him in CF along with being in the cleanup spot and then have Teel/Stephan platooning in LF. I have Ford in RF because it was mentioned during one of our regional games that the staff likes him there next year, but we’ll see how true that ends up being. He could maintain his position at 1B or even move over to 3B depending on how his defense translates. Final position of note is Catcher, right now Trey Wells the JUCO transfer from Wayne State looks to be the frontrunner but I’d imagine we’re gonna add at least one more player from the portal for depth. Wells is a big boy at 6’5, 225 so he fits the new mold that KMac is looking for from our hitters.
Main guys
Fri: Evan Blanco LHP
Sat: Jack O’Connor RHP
Sun: Bradley Hodges LHP
Midweek: Joey Colucci RHP (JUCO transfer)
Closer: Matt Augustin RHP
This is a fairly conservative projection all things considered, the weekend rotation would basically be what we would have had this season if injuries didn’t happen. Blanco was expected to be at best our Sunday guy, but Hodges going down and O’Connor being inconsistent to start out before also going down forced Evan into the Friday role where he was an absolute bulldog for us. It’s hard to move him out of that spot as of right now, but I would not be surprised if Bradley and/or Jack push him down the pecking order a bit if they come back strong after their respective recoveries. Joey Colucci is a JUCO transfer from Harford Community College and former Maryland Terrapin who had an exceptional past season on the mound, going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 83 K’s in 63 IP with only 18 BB’s allowed. To be honest I don’t know what the level of competition is like where he played, but those are impressive numbers regardless and he’s a projectable kid at 6’5, 220 who throws low to mid 90’s currently with his fastball. Putting him in the midweek slot could either be an undersell or an oversell, we’ll see. The closer spot will be wide open and honestly who even knows if it exists anymore with how modern bullpens are utilized, but I’m putting Augustin as our top arm out of the pen. I’ve got really high hopes for him after a very strong end to the year and think he’s got a very high ceiling, so much so that depending on the circumstances and his development curve he could be a dark horse for the weekend rotation if either of Hodges or O’Connor aren’t ready to return.
Top available arms out of the pen
Chase Hungate RHP
Ryan Osinski RHP
Bryson Moore RHP
Aidan Teel RHP
Will Riley RHP (VMI transfer)
Auggie Richie RHP (JUCO transfer)
Kevin Jaxel RHP
Cullen McKay RHP
Blake Barker LHP
Chris Arroyo LHP (JUCO transfer)
Tommy Roldan LHP
Dean Kampschror LHP
Lots of talent here, and also lots of question marks. There’s gonna be guys who transfer out from this group, it’s inevitable, but we should still have more than enough arms to rebuild a bullpen that was wildly inconsistent in 2024. Hungate was rock solid for us most of the season and I would assume will reclaim his spot as one of our first middle relief options. Osinski pitched well in the latter half of his appearances despite his low K rate, and I think with his frame along with being better acclimated to ACC level competition he could be a valuable piece for us. Same goes for Barker and Teel, both of which were far too inconsistent but showed flashes of having great stuff and life on their fastballs. Will Riley is an incoming transfer from VMI who analytics love, he was a starter for the Keydets but I think profiles better as a reliever, with a fastball that touches 97 and a wipeout slider. His raw numbers are flat out bad but advanced data shows he got zero help from his defense (VMI had a bottom 100 fielding pct in the country just to give a basic idea) so hopefully with a better supporting cast around him he can find more success. Jaxel and McKay both are in need of a major bounce back, they had great first years here and then lost all of their consistency and confidence in their second years. Each of them have such high ceilings but need to re-find the strike zone without having to throw it right down the heart of the plate. And finally I keep hearing about how high the staff was on Tommy Roldan before he got lost to injury, he’s a two way player who is our highest ranked HS prospect from the 2023 class so I’m expecting him to give us some kind of production in 2025 whether it be on the mound or at the plate.
Overall I’m looking for significant improvement from this group next year, we struggled mightily at times but with some key arms returning and some quality additions from the portal (and hopefully from our recruiting class, fingers crossed) there is enough talent here to make a major turnaround.
This is incredibly well done. I have a couple (much less detailed) thoughts on positions. What do you, or anyone else here can jump in, think of this middle infield:
1B: Perrotta
2B: Hanson
SS: Godbout
3B: Becker
Obviously this is assuming everyone returns, and like you mentioned Ford moving to the OF.
Pitching wise, I’m expecting starters to go Evan, Bradley, Jack on the weekend. No clue what to expect on the midweek but your projection sounds right. Out of the pen, I’m with you I expect 2 top arms, Hungate and Augustin, with Riley the probably next in line most used option. Personally, I’m expecting Hungate to close, but I think both he and Augustin are fully capable of eating up innings as needed.
I think that’s just as likely as what I listed, if not more likely. With those three I think it’s gonna be an open competition and I would imagine Godbout gets the first crack at SS given he’s the most proven fielder out of those three. The only questions I have with him is does he have the arm strength, and also do you want to move him away from 2B where generally speaking he’s played fantastic. And I didn’t mention it on purpose, but if Luke Dickerson somehow makes it to Grounds he could absolutely be a day one starter there.
If Hodges and O’Connor can come back to their full form on the mound that’s a hell of a starting rotation, I put Hodges on Sundays just for the L/R/L split but realistically that’s not too big of a detail. The key to our bullpen at least looking at it right now will be finding reliable lefties, Tonas ate up so many innings for us in relief this year so that will be a huge hole to fill and there’s not a name that really jumps out at you as being the obvious answer. Kampschror looked decent as a lefty specialist but only had the opportunity to face one or two batters at a time, Barker has the stuff but as mentioned is very hit or miss, and Roldan is coming off his injury. It could honestly be Arroyo, he had solid stats at the JUCO level and was a highly touted player coming out of HS, got a little bit of time his freshman season at UF but not enough to draw any major conclusions from his outings.
Yeah I think Godbouts very high level fielding will
be what gets him first crack at short. Arm strength is hard to tell for him, but if it’s viewed as an issue I’m sure that’ll be his main offseason focus.
I feel like if Hodges was ahead of JOC going into the year, he’ll (most likely) still be ahead, atleast coming out of recovery. You’re correct too on LHP out of the pen, that’s a spot I’m hoping to see transfer action pick up.
Thanks so much for your work. It seems to me that TJ recoveries are very slow and the coaches are very conservative about their use. I would be very surprised to see Hodges as a regular starter early. Maybe by the end of the season.
Yeah that’s fair, it varies depending on the athlete but it can be a long and difficult process to getting back, typically around a year. I think that’s why the staff decided to add Colucci, Arroyo, and Riley, all of whom have experience as a SP in case we need someone to step up for the first half of the season.
I’m more optimistic about O’Connor being ready, good chance he misses most of the summer but should be ready by fall practice. That at least gives us another option in our rotation by next season’s start if all goes well.
I’ll try to provide more updates on draft stuff once that starts going fully into gear around the middle of July, but here’s the current MLB.com top 200 draft prospects: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft
Of note to us…
41: Griff O’Ferrall SS
56: Bryce Meccage RHP (HS commit)
67: Caleb Bonemer SS (HS commit)
70: Luke Dickerson SS (HS commit)
75: Ethan Anderson C/1B
103: Tomas Valincius LHP (HS commit)
108: William Kirk LHP (HS commit)
125: Trey Gregory-Alford RHP (HS commit)
127: Harrison Didawick OF
129: Casey Saucke OF
168: Aiden Harris 3B (HS commit)
Just to give some context into what these rankings might mean specifically in relation to our 2024 recruiting class, I decided to count up how many HS players ranked in the MLB.com top 200 ended up choosing the college route instead of going pro over the past two years and split it up by where they were ranked. Here’s what I got, it’s not an exact science because MLB.com isn’t a be/all end/all for rankings and it doesn’t factor in each player’s desire to go to college or what their asking price is in terms of bonuses. But maybe it provides a tiny bit of optimism.
2023 rankings:
1-25: 0/9
26-50: 2/17
51-75: 4/14
76-100: 5/9
101-125: 8/9
126-150: 9/13
151-200: 7/13
2022 rankings:
1-25: 0/13
26-50: 2/8
51-75: 3/9
76-100: 6/12
101-125: 8/15
126-150: 8/11
151-200: 20/24
To make it make more sense for where our recruits are ranked, Bonemer/Meccage/Dickerson are in the 51-75 range where 7/23 (30%) HS players made it to college over the past two years, Valincius/Kirk/TGA are in the 101-125 range where 16/24 (67%) HS players made it to college, and Harris is in the 151-200 range where 27/37 (73%) HS players made it to college. The coaching staff is apparently bracing to lose all seven of these guys but here’s to hoping we’re able to land at least a couple, because these are the kind of prospects who can be game changers for a program’s ceiling (aka win you a natty).
Yeah. This is suppose to be a weak draft overall and especially weak for HS players early. So the HS players ranked reasonably high this year probably won’t be as good as prospects similarly ranked in other years. But the teams have money to spend and most will spend it so it will be interesting to see how everything shakes out.
I know that Hanson and Becker had their struggles but VMI’s fielding pct was .962, well below anything we’ve ever seen here under BOC. I thought Hanson actually played pretty solid at 3rd in the postseason, the main question mark would be at SS with either Becker or Godbout.
Have to believe he goes this year unless he falls pretty far. Most who come back for a 4th year have low draft prospects. I am thinking Jay could go in the first 10 rounds given his time on USA baseball and late season outings.
Yeah it would be a huge risk for him to come back unless he goes undrafted.
For those wondering why it’s a huge risk and why people like me keep saying if Jay gets drafted at all he’s likely gone (and should be gone), with the way the MLB draft is set up currently college seniors who are out of eligibility almost always get a contract massively under their slot value if they’re picked. No eligibility means no leverage in negotiations to potentially return to school, which MLB organizations take advantage of and consequently low ball the fuck out of the player knowing they have no other option but to accept the contract if they wanna get their shot at the league. There was a senior pitcher a couple years ago who got drafted in the 6th round and signed for $1,000, despite his projected slot value being around $250k.
So in the case of Jay, who has one year of eligibility left, this is his last year of leverage. If he gets drafted late for not a ton of slot money, he could hypothetically bet on himself and see if he can show enough in his final year to work himself in the top 2-3 rounds where there would be less incentive to low ball him (or at least be picked high enough to where the low ball offer is still more than what he gets this offseason), but it would be a MASSIVE gamble and there’s no guarantee it would work.
McKay enters the portal. Not surprised by this, his ceiling is very high but he was so inconsistent this year and it was gonna be a long road back to the weekend rotation for him.