Eh. The Zags win over Bama is single-handedly keeping them in the conversation.
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It’s not just the loss, they didn’t even have a Q2 game after the reveal. Virginia’s win over WF was better than either of their wins. So UVA went from behind Gonzaga in WAB to a full WAB ahead.
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insane to me that Gonzaga’s win over Alabama is viewed as so vastly superior to UVA’s win @ UL to make up for Gonzaga’s inferior resume numbers, whereas UVA is viewed as having no great wins.
Also I think the committee has showed us that they care more about wins and losses than efficiency metrics but every year bracketologists seem to convince themselves that efficiency metrics have more weight.
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Yea I mean this is a non issue if they lose tomorrow.
FWIW in WAB we have a better ‘top three’ wins.
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Big win for Santa Clara over St Mary’s. Seems like they are a lock now which means 3 spots left assuming no other bid thieves. I think SMU is in if the can win one ACCT game. VCU should be in if they win two games in A10 tournament. That would leave one spot for Indiana, Stanford, VT, Auburn, Cal, or maybe a Mountain West team. If Hansberry is out for VT then I think Wake will beat them tonight and they’ll be officially eliminated
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Fwiw, after the regular season, in bracket matrix, we are still a 4 seed. The second 4-seed
Starting to feel like we will most likely only move up with a notable win.
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ACC section of today’s Bubble Watch from Eamonn Brennan:
ACC
One consequence of all those losses [by other Bubble teams over the weekend]: Clemson is now a lock. The Tigers could have earned the distinction much earlier; they started 20-4 before a four-game losing streak that exposed some of the underlying brittleness of their resume. That’s still a thing: 36th in NET, 32nd in WAB, 38th at KenPom, with a weird habit of losing to mediocre opposition at home. But the actual bubble is much worse. Whatever happens in the ACC tournament — and they have a chance against North Carolina a — they’re getting in.
Lock: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Work to do: NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech, Stanford
NC State (19-12, 10-8; NET: 35, WAB: 43): For most of the past month, save some exasperated outbursts, Will Wade has been mostly reassuring local reporters that his flawed, frustrating team was nonetheless likely to make the tournament. He’s usually been right. But we are no longer as sure as we were. This team’s WAB ranked 31st on Feb. 10. Now it’s two spots above the WAB Mendoza line. Whatever the circumstances of Saturday afternoon’s 85-84 home loss to Stanford — insanely slept-on freshman Ebuka Okorie went nuts for 33 points — fact is the Pack lost six of their last seven, with the lone win coming over a UNC team without Caleb Wilson or Henri Veesaar. (As an Arsenal fan, we are hyper-sensitive to people accusing players of “over-celebrating” wins … but NC State might have over-celebrated that win.) This group has been a No. 8 or No. 9 seed for most of this Bubble Watch season, but they’re still drifting, and a loss to either Stanford or (especially) Pitt Wednesday will make Selection Sunday suck.
SMU (19-12, 8-10; NET: 39, WAB: 48): We put out a warning about Florida State Friday: That was going to be a tough game for SMU, coming off three straight losses, against a team that had rated out 36th in Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings since Jan. 19. Make it four. Some of this is scheduling variance: All of the Mustangs’ losses the past two weeks came against good and/or desperate teams away from home. Truly: Florida State is actually good now. We get it. But SMU is also good enough to have put this at-large situation to rest by now, and is instead playing on the first day of the ACC tournament as a No. 11 seed in a must-win game against Syracuse. Woof.
Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10; NET 53, WAB: 46): We instinctively felt bad for Mike Young watching Saturday’s devastating road loss at Virginia, a feeling only enhanced by seeing Young’s postgame press conference, where he recounted the mistakes that aided UVa’s win and asked reporters — rhetorically, obviously, while rubbing his temples and sounding a bit like Pete Bell — what the **** he was doing wrong. Broken record here, but the best news for Va. Tech’s long-shot tournament hopes was the rest of the bubble’s foibles. All hope is not lost.
Stanford (20-11, 9-9; NET: 59, WAB: 49): Don’t look now, but some teams actually want to go to the tournament. Enter Stanford! The Cardinal have been on the unmentionable outer fringe for weeks — they were on an early Bubble Watch, but fell off pretty quickly — and, bam, last weekend of the season, just like that, they’re back. This team is 6-2 since Feb. 4, beat SMU and won at NC State in that stretch, and is finally translating some of the classic Kyle Smith we swear to God this team is better than its record, we promise you guys Smith is a good coach data into actual results. (It helps to have Okorie, who is ridiculous.) The Cardinal are one of the only teams going in a positive cut line direction right now. They should beat Pitt Tuesday, and will have a mental advantage against NC State if they do. One of Champ Week’s most fascinating teams.
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I kinda think we’re 3 now based on WAB and SOR. Have to win Thursday to keep it.
Obviously doesn’t mean much, but didn’t the committee have us higher than the bracket matrix at the mid season reveal?
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Good question - I vaguely remember us being like the last 4 or first 5. Very close
I still think I’ll be surprised if five BIG teams end up seeded ahead of the second place ACC team. The BIG was obviously good this year but the ACC had a better (by recent standards) season across the board as well. Obviously not how the committee officially looks at things, but I still just struggle to see that outcome for some reason.
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No, looking at way back machine bracket matrix had us at 16 which is exactly where we ended up
Oh, ok. I must’ve been conflating it with Lunardi’s bracket.
Santa Clara has beaten exactly 1 tournament team and has a sub 300 loss. Man I love the WCC!
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I truly don’t understand 8 loss Alabama and Purdue being ahead of us in brackets. Virginia is 15-4 in Q1+Q2
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Something not enough people are talking about with regards to Gonzaga is Braden Huff. He had 18 against Bama, 20 against Kentucky, and 21 against UCLA. He’s not available so how do you evaluate the Gonzaga team without him? Their resume without him is 1-1 vs Saint Mary’s, 1-0 vs Santa Clara, and a loss to Portland.
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Also, it’s sort of fucked up to discount Virginia due to no top-tier wins when the only opportunity we got was at Cameron against the best team in the country. I know NCSOS blah blah but still…
Do I think Virginia could go .500 against teams like Iowa St, Michigan St, etc… yeah I do
Apparently that’s all you need to prove to the committee that you should be a top 3 seed. It’s dumb.
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Hopefully we learn our lesson with regards to non-conference scheduling this year. This was entirely foreseeable coming into the year that we could be underseeded.
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My concern is I feel like these perceptions lag. I fear we may pay a price for last year’s ACC this season.
Honestly I think our predictives are holding us back more than our lack of a “signature win” (whatever the hell that is). If we still had our predictive rankings from our early conference play stretch, we’d be a lock for a 3 seed I think. We just didn’t beat meh teams by enough down the stretch.
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Also Gonzaga isnt being penalized for dropping a game to Michigan by 40, losing a Q3 game, and not having any elite wins. People bend over backwards to a neutral win over Alabama elit and @ Louisville not.
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