🏀 2025-2026 Bracketology

How are they slotted as a 13? They’re 70th in KenPom. Their resume must be atrocious.

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Anybody have a Silver Bulletin sub? They released their COOPER (cute, right?) NCAA men’s hoops ratings. Here’s the Top 16. I’m curious to see where they rank the Hoos.

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Games with seeding implications for the Hoos today:

Pitt / NC State - we really dont want to play Pitt tomorrow. Need a Q1 opportunity for a shot at a 3 seed (plus a loss to Pitt could knock UVA off the 4 line). Would be great if NC State could blow the Panthers out and push their NET up a bit.

Arizona St / ISU - bit of a long shot, but I think UVA can pass ISU if they lose this game and UVA wins 2+. ISU is 13th in WAB going in.

Ole Miss / Texas - Texas has dropped out of the top 40 (42nd) and is no longer a Q1A win. Would help if they could climb back in.

Cal/FSU - Just need FSU to not get blown out so that win doesnt drop out of Q1. Currently 70th in NET, want them to stay top 75.

Would also be nice if Maryland, Northwestern and Butler could pick up wins but none of those games is likely to move the needle much.

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In a hypothetical that will no longer be relevant later today…if Maryland won the Big 10 tournament, how would they be seeded?

I think Georgia maybe did something similar (but weren’t quite as bad as Maryland) awhile back.

Edit: UGA was seeded 14th after their conference run in ‘08. Forgot how bad the SEC used to be. Lost in the first round to Xavier.

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Heh, 14th is exactly where T-Rank sticks them in that situation.

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Georgetown was a 12 seed in 2021, but that was the weird Covid season and they weren’t truly atrocious, just pretty bad.

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Here is my latest bracket:

Last Four In: Indiana, SMU, VCU, UCF

First Four Out: California, Va Tech, SDSU, New Mexico

Net Four Out: Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Cincy, Auburn

https://raleighwx.blogspot.com/

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NC State currently struggling with Pitt :grimacing:

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How the fuck can VT still be hanging around? What are we talking about here?

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the bubble is insanely week this year. everyone on it keeps losing

T-Rank’s team sheet ranks view is a nice quick way to compare teams, since it has all the team sheet metrics and an average of them. Here’s all teams, sorted by resume metric average:

VT is close to Indiana (Raleigh’s last at-large in, and a common at-large in right now) in resume metric average. But obviously their resume isn’t getting any better.

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They likely wont make it, but they have the classic bubble resume, 2 Q1 wins, 6 Q2 wins, no bad losses. Two nice wins over us and @ Clemson. Resume metrics though are blah WAB=53, SOR=58, typically not good enough. And mediocre performance metrics of BT=55, POM=58. I doubt they make it in, but compared to other bubble teams, the resume is comparable.

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Mike Young already essentially conceded that they were out in his post game press conference so it would be awkward if they made it

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It’s just tough when they have 12 losses compared to High Point with 4. Granted I think they had an injury for a lot of those but I doubt the committee is looking at MVC injury reports.

How close is Cal to getting in? Does a Cal win + UCF loss do it?

You didn’t ask me but given that I think we’ll get probably two bid thieves out of MWC/A10/MAC I think practically they would need to beat Duke to feel safe.

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KenPom sounding a lot like @AdventiveQuasar here, suggesting we rely on WAB as an objective measure for the NCAAT rather than deal with the mysterious whims of subjective committees.

Come to think of it, I’ve never seen Ken and AQ in the same place at the same time… :thinking:

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My take on that: I agree a single objective measure (like WAB) would be “better” in a fairness sense, but this is an entertainment product and people LOVE having these arguments each year. The debates fuel the fan bases for months. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature.

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Would love for VPI to be the first hoops team that has folks sit out the NCAA tourney because they’re already in the portal

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