Best finish is a three. Feel like even with an ACCT win could still see a scenario where we’re a 4.
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This would be so fucked up
0.0% chance they get a 4 as acc champion, even if the final is against fsu.
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Cheering against Kansas, Purdue tonight.
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I dont think Houston, Uconn or Florida are completely unpassable if they lose early enough. Well…okay Florida might be unpassable but Uconn can take another bad loss still.
Remember, Duke is worth almost a full WAB.
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I will have to see what the updated metrics say in the am. But there are 6 still possible bid thief scenarios, ACC, Big East, SEC, A-10, Big 10, MWC. So, theoretically, the last 6 teams in, still have to wait for that to play out.
Based on my morning analysis, with an at-large spot going away with Miami-OH, the last 6 in would be in order, first team listed is last team in:
Texas, SMU, VCU, Missouri, Santa Clara, NC State.
I think Miami-OH will be in Dayton, but I think they are a lock as the committee will honor their 31-0 reg season. VCU could fall out of my bracket most likely if they pick up a bad loss in the A-10 tournament. I think Oklahoma is the only team out of the bracket, that could win their way in short of winning the conf tournament.
If all that makes sense.
Ill add to this, if St. Louis picks up a bad loss, I may have to reevaluate them too as their total resume is not that impressive.
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There’s not a lot of difference between the 8 and 9 spots on the S-Curve. They’re probably slotted in the same region as S16 opponents too.
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Honestly for seeding, I think we should all be Purdue fans. I like our resume stacked up against theirs the best. If they fall short to Michigan in a title game and we beat Duke I think they look weaker compared to us than a MSU, Nebraska, or Illinois that made it to the title game. Someone’s gotta make the championship in that conference that’s ahead of us (hopefully) so I would rather it be the weakest of them.
Could FSU sneak into the field if they make it to the title game?
I think they have too big of a hole to climb out of.
Purdue only getting a single bye makes this a bit tricky. Northwestern is only Q2 but still worth maybe .4 WAB. Purdue will have higher WAB than Illinois tomorrow. Also right now im just hoping for a 3 seed and I think Purdue losing makes that significantly more likely so I’ll be rooting for Nebraska tomorrow.
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They are at 62 now (-1.1). There’s a way to do the actual math that I’m too lazy to do but I think they’d get to around the cutline (45, +.1) with wins over UNC and Duke and a loss to us. Maybe +.9 Duke, +.6 UNC, -.1 UVA loss?
So no bid stealers in the ACC or Big 10, so we are down to 4 possible bid thieve leagues remaining alive, SEC, A-10, MWC, Big East.
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Its obviously not likely, but Georgetown does have some practice at this.
Lunardi is shameless with his biases. Going into yesterday, he had UVa at 14 overall and Kansas at 15. UVA beat a team that is ranked higher in the NET rankings and on KenPom than the team Kansas beat and by a larger margin than Kansas won by, and Lunardi flipped them.
The committee will (hopefully) ignore these small changes and use their own eyes and opinions… but it’s still annoying.
Part of me feels like losing to Miami will somehow give them a reason to move us down to a 5.
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UVA is half a WAB ahead of Kansas and 5 spots ahead on NET there is no way Kansas is ahead entering today.
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As has been said many times, at the end of the day Lunardi is consistently one of the lowest ranked ‘bracketologist’ when the dust settles year after year
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UVA currently 8-3 in Q1 is what I’m seeing this morning… hope the committee has their eyes open
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In the race for a higher seed, keeping eyes on the following games today, on top of us winning against Miami, obviously, which is the most important part of this.
Nebraska v Purdue at 6:30 on BTN
Cornhuskers are .04 ahead of us in WAB and right ahead of us in the NET. Purdue is .42 behind us in WAB and 3 spots ahead in NET, so feels like one where we gotta root for Painter to win.
Iowa St v Arizona at 7 on ESPN
Cyclones are .18 ahead of us in WAB, albeit 6 spots ahead in NET, but Arizona is not at risk of falling from the 1 seed line, so Iowa State losing would be a huge help.
Michigan St vs UCLA at 9 on BTN
Sparty is .38 ahead of us in WAB and two spots ahead in the NET, so if UCLA somehow pulls off a win here that can go a long way for us, too.
Not sure how precisely Torvik WAB corresponds to NCAA WAB, but BT thinks that a win here is worth .58 WAB, which would push us up to 7th in NCAA and BT WAB, all else being equal.
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