I think a close loss to either team weād be fine. But another 25 point loss could sway itā¦
Iām honestly more thinking if we can manage a win over Duke the bump weāll get in metrics will push us very close to the 2 lineā¦
Committee can say oh these tournaments arenāt that important but itās just like anything else another data point to look at. The boosts weāll have gotten will matter.
Should also add that the 13/13 could change as more results go final tonight.
Thatās a baaaad loss for Bama.
Huge win for Ole Miss. Hopefully weāre ahead of Bama regardless of tomorrow
There will be no 3 seed for Bama.
Coming into today ^^^
Todayās results:
2 Illinois Q1 loss (Wisconsin)
āā
3 Iowa St Q1A loss (Arizona)
3 Nebraska Q1A loss (Purdue)
3 Gonzaga
3 Purdue Q1A win (Nebraska)
āā
4 Alabama Q2 loss (Ole Miss)
4 Virginia Q1 win (Miami)
4 Kansas tip vs Houston in 10 minutes Q1A
4 Vandy Q1 win (Tennessee)
āā-
5 Texas Tech
My guess is that Illinois and Iowa State are too far ahead of us to catch with todayās win. Weāre probably fighting (after today, not necessarily on Sunday) for the last two 3 seeds with Nebraska and Gonzaga. Kansas joins the group if they beat Houston.
All the teams still alive have chances to add major scalps to their resume. So we absolutely donāt have a top 3 locked up, but we have a great case for it now, and we can have a better case late tomorrow.
I donāt see how 30-4 acc champs donāt get at least a 2 seed. I think someone like Illinois can be bumped down to a 3 pretty easily
I think this year is a uniquely challenging one for the 2-4 seed lines though
I think Michigan State could also drop from the 2 line - down 11 to UCLA in the first, but may even drop if they lose in the semis.
MSU is down 13 to UCLA.
Also Nebraska lost by 16 and UVA is now going to be above them in both kenpom and WAB going into tomorrow.
I think the argument against is pretty clear: our schedule SUCKED. Like Gonzaga and st Maryās are the only worse in the top 30 bad. And weāre much closer to their level of SOS than any other top team.
And we benefited a lot from people missing when we played themā¦ our best win was at Louisville without Brown. The 2 healthy high ranked teams we played we lost at home (UNC) and got blown out on the road (Duke).
Beating Duke tomorrow would help rectify this. But have to remember committee is people, theyāll take into account Duke down 2 starters.
I do think thereās a path to a 2 seed that is still very available to us, but Iām not really counting on it. I think a 3 seed is almost locked now, especially if weāre atleast competitive tomorrow night.
my problem with this argument is that Gonzagaās schedule was even worse and they are also missing one of their best players, have been materially worse without him, and heās not coming back for the ncaat. I dont understand how they just get a pass.
feels like bracketologists want uva to be a 4 and cherry pick stats to make it happen
also on games with guys hurt - i assume every team has had some wins with key opponent players out. no way we can go into that level of granularity with seeding.
Flimsy, at best. Dude hasnāt played but about five games since New Yearās Day.
How are they getting a pass? Theyāre in the same cluster with us for almost the exact same reasons. Talking 2/3 seed. I donāt think either team has a great chance of a 2. But both are definitely in the 3 argument (I have uva ahead of gonzaga)
they should be a low 4 at best (or a 5 if huffs injury were taken into account) and yet almost everyone has them above uva entering today
they dont have an elite win, their resume is probably going to end up in the mid-low teens, they have a really bad loss, and they play more like a top 20-ish team than a top 10-ish team without Huff
Huh? He played in 11 since well actually since 1/24.
Thatāll change now though because the predictives have changed today.
And they were 7-4. Kinda makes the argument worse.
They lost to the same teams we lost to UNC and Duke and then Clemson who we havenāt played for 3 of thoseā¦ what win do you think was better on our resume?
I can still seeing us getting a 4-seed. Weāre #13 in KenPom and Torvik. So, by predictive metrics, weāre the top 4 seed. (We could pass Vandy for #12, though, so their game is one to watch.)
Also, the committee likely already has us on the board as a 4 seed (might even be a 5, though Iād bet on 4). If theyāre āladderingā rather than holistically reassessing, we might only move up if someone just above us falters. So again, eye on other games.
