Heās got Nolan getting 31+ minutes, 116 O Rtg and 22% usage
In BBL, Nolan was at 22 minutes, 120.3 O rtg and 14.7% usage.
Seems like an optimistic projection. If I remember correctly last year, he underrated some of the international guys, so maybe this is an over-correction? Hard to knowā¦
Last year he built his international projections off of Nick Kalinowskiās work classifying NCAA-aged internationals. Not sure how heās going about this this year, but his Euro Rankings page has Adekunle as the top recruit:
You start looking around on the eurorankings Torvik page at the other guys near the top, and it starts to make more sense why Adekunle is ranked highly: Heās ahead of most other guys in terms of shooting efficiency and has a very solid 20 mpg role. A lot of the other recruits arenāt hitting those levels.
On roster spend: Richard Pitino said under oath in a court case last week that Xavier, a mid-tier Big East program outside of the top 50 in Torvik, is spending over $14 million on its roster, in case people still didnāt believe the big schools are clearing $20 million
That number doesnāt sound crazy. Itās pretty clear Xavier was a big spender this offseason. They added 10 new players and new players are typically more expensive than retained players. Theyāre also Xavier so they probably have to pay a premium to convince guys to go there over other brand name schools.
Washington, Nwoko, Westry, and Dominguez probably cost around $10M.
They have a top 15 ranked transfer class so $14M sounds about right. Idk why theyāre so low on Torvik (we spent a bunch last year and were outside top 50 on Torvik preseason).
Would love to know the breakdown of what this is: rev share, true NIL v Learfield type NIL, amount that needs to go through CSC, likelihood of approval, etc
(I donāt expect it, of course, just raises that question)
I think his point is that āif Xavier is spending $14M there must be dozens of programs spending $20M+ā or something like that.
My counter is that $14M is probably on the higher end of the spectrum of team spending even if itās coming from a program like Xavier. That amount bought them a top 15 transfer class (according to 247) and Iād wager thatās around where they would rank in terms of top payroll (maybe closer to 15-20).
I still think there are fewer than 10 schools over the $20M threshold.
So are we mid tier because weāre not historically Duke or UNC? The Big East is top heavy. The top 6 have all been consistently good to great this century.
I agree the financial demise of the big east is being overblown if Xavier has 14mm to drop
Mid-Tier is correct for Xavier. They donāt have the history recent or long term to match with St. Johns, Uconn or Nova.
At itās best X was the darling of the mid-majors before Gonzanga took that crown. But a good and historic program that has never seen a Final 4, canāt be considered top tier, current or historically.
Pretty clearly UConn, St Johnās, Nova are a top three, despite best efforts to kill themselves Georgetown is still a bigger program than anyone else after that, so at best youāre talking 5th in an 11 team conference, thatās mid tier. And maybe 6th or 7th depending on what you think of Marquette and Creighton
Iām behind in the dialogue. But I think it was pretty well known that both Providence and Xavier dropped cash this offseason. Donāt recall any other outliers. Other than Marquette spent seemingly big after forgoing the portal in years past.
So not sure that Pitinoās comments are revelatory or that we should jump to the conclusion that applies everywhere in CBB?
Can I ask a different question then: if we donāt think these spending figures that get thrown out are real, then what do we think is accurate? Followed by: what is the evidence?
Everyone poo-poos when someone throws a big number out there, but Iām not really tracking what the alternative figure/estimate is