Brogdon you ask?
You make a good point.
In Acc games he shot 41% from 3 his sophomore year and 41% his senior year.
And he shot 29% for his career in the NCAA tournament.
Devon Hall shot 7% from 3 in his Ncaa career.
Yes 7%.
Of course those aren’t the only reasons uva has struggled mightily to match our regular season success in the postseason—- but I would start there.
In this era you need multiple dudes that can shoot it at high averages to survive and advance. Because too many other teams in the dance will have those guys.
We could look if you like at any of the top 10 teams this year and see what their top 2 or 3 dudes are shooting.
And you really need a couple to shoot well above the others in order for the team average to be high enough to be top 10 caliber in March
Gotta make that low dude prove it
Well, looking at the collective, it’s a little hard to be super hopeful for next year. Reece probably isn’t going to become a volume three-point shooter, Armaan isn’t likely going to increase his percentage by more than 10 percentage points, and then our only other shooting hopes are first years or guys who have barely played this year. I don’t know, maybe I’m being too negative, but if we need multiple guys to hit at 35% or above to be truly competitive… eh. It might be another year down the line.
Still think the team will be solid next year, but until we have multiple guards who can hit the three at a good clip as central parts of the rotation, I’m not going to let my hopes get too raised. Although it would be kind of awesome to see Tony say “screw your modern basketball” and win a title shooting nothing but mid-range twos and dunks.
I’ll argue against myself and try to make Dave’s point for him:
- To be very good (top 25 or so), we need 2 guys at or near ~40%
- But if our 5 can’t shoot threes (Papi/Kadin) …
- And our 4 can’t shoot threes (Jayden) …
- And Reece is playing PG, and (prayers up on that one) …
- Then our 2 guard / wing slots might NEED to be filled by shooters
- Unless Armaan is just so good at the other stuff that he demands PT…
Really Fresh!? How has Clark been guarded all 4 years?
Kentucky’s second best 3 point shooter behind Kellan Grady is at 34.9%. Not counting Jacob Topping who is 4-9. They have the 3rd ranked offense at KenPom.
I’ll also say that in my opinion, people get way too hung up on bigs shooting the three. It’s a nice-to-have, but not a must-have, the way that good shooting from your guards is. The modern game is a guard’s game. That doesn’t mean bigs shooting a high clip doesn’t help take your offense to another level and give you more versatility, but on the order of things I care about, it’s way lower down.
Was just looking at them. True, but also:
- Still pretty good at 3p% overall (#78)
- But super low in volume (one of the lowest in the country)
- Most importantly, they’re #1 in OR% (Tshiebwe)
Arizona’s best 3 point shooter is 37.7%. They rank 12th in offensive efficiency.
Thats cause he hasnt proved it and he really prefers not to shoot 3s (I think) for the first three and a half. Also his slow was really really slow for those 3.5 years and defenders could get back to him when he was sort of getting the shot going
Thats more scouting report : play him to drive, be in passing lanes, if he hits 2 or 3 oh well. Of course until he makes 6!
Yes Haney. Lineups are a puzzle where the pieces need to fit. And a 2 guard that shoots 37% doesn’t fit with the other pieces we have next year.
That’s why I advocate for Armaan to come off the bench and not play with Gardner.
Reece, Isaac M, Igor, Gardner, Sheds
Then
Reece, Armaan, Murray, Traudt, Papi
As an example - it keeps 2 shooters minimum on the floor always. And also need at least 4 shooters in the regular rotation on any team that has too 10 aspirations.
Just think how effective and efficient Reece and Gardner (2 best players in Nov 2022) would be if the other 3 were any of Traudt, Murray, Milicic, McKneely, Dunn,
I think you have to acknowledge it’s a bit of a sliding scale. If Franklin stays $$ from the midrange, and we have another sniper next to him, he could certainly work very well with those numbers. 37 is fairly close to 40!
Right, you are making my point. There are different ways to be good at offense. Being an elite 3 point shooting team is one way, but there are other ways as well.
Agree on the puzzle part. Great point. Also why Malachi has earned his time this year
I agree with your overall point about needing shooting. Just think 40% threshold is too high to call the minimum for any player or team. Especially when Joe barely managed that for his career and Malcolm never managed it for a whole season.
I know the last 3 champs (Nova, UVA, Baylor) have all been 40% from deep but if you go back just a bit further UNC shot 35.5% and the first Nova team shot 36.2%. Duke was 38.7%. There is more than one way to skin a cat. I think saying you need your shooting guard to be able to hit shots is accurate but I don’t think he needs to be elite at it. And 40% is still the elite threshold unless I’ve missed something.
Just eyeballing the KenPom numbers, the real puzzle is our 2015 team (offensively). They were the #21 ranked offense, despite being mediocre from 3 (#125), just okay from 2 (#88), not very good at getting to the line (albeit one of our best - #232), and just okay once there (#62). We were good at not turning it over (#17) - that was our only good category. (Edit - we also had our best Bennett OR% at #73, but still just decent overall).
https://kenpom.com/history.php?t=Virginia
We basically had a nearly top 20 offense by just not being bad at anything.
This is definitely true, I’d just add that it’s just a lot harder to have an offense that is good without good three-point shooting. You have to work insanely hard at something else to generate good looks if your spacing is all screwed up, whether it be offensive rebounding, screening the crap out of things, etc.
I think our team right now is a good example - they’ve actually become pretty competent on offense by working their tails off setting screens and shooting off of curls in the mid range, etc. But all of that is exhausting and difficult to perfect. Having just one really dangerous three-point shooter would open things up so much and not require our level of execution to be extraordinary to have a ‘good’ offense.
Difference between 37 and 40 on 200 shots is 6 the entire season. 
I mean, 6 isnt nothing… especially if you play as many close games as we usually do. Adding an extra 3 pointer made to 6 different games over the course of a season probably turns at least one 1-2pt loss into a win
Obviously not a huge deal, but when you’re trying to win titles that could be the difference between starting the tourney as a 2 seed vs a 4 seed or something like that
Sure, I agree with you. It’s not nothing, maybe it swings a game or 2 or 3 and a seed line or 2. But I don’t think it’s the difference between a high upside elite championship caliber team and a mediocre one with limited upside.