'21 - '22 Outside ACC Basketball Chat

We love to see it

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Well this is a new one. Do they cancel the game if positive?


Michigan is now 7-7. Their best win is San Diego State at home. They are still 31st in KenPom.

Normally I am a big advocate for KenPom but this season it’s been pretty ridiculous. At this rate they’ll be 7-9 and still in the top 50


Reminds me of Minnesota from two years ago. They kept losing games but the metrics loved them.


Michigan oddly right next to VT. While I disagree with those 2, us being the in the 60s seems pretty dead on.

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That’s why it’s nice to add the more outcome oriented metrics like KPI and SOR. Michigan is 82 in KPI (We are 75). I don’t know where to find updated SOR but Michigan was 96 in the latest team sheets on warrennolan.com. The Hokies have a similar split: bad in KPI and SOR but good in the predictives (like KenPom). After watching the Hokies and in particular their guards, I think the predictive stuff is way to optimistic.

Why dont we just look at the metric of wins n loses


You’re too young to be saying that old guy stuff! :joy:

Longer version: we don’t do that because there are 350+ teams in D-1 college hoops and they weren’t all created equal.

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All the more reason to not worry about ranking all of them.

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Cause thats too easy… and too logical

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This is a fickle fanbase when it comes to rankings.

  • KenPom was king when it favored us. Now it’s not.

  • Ranked in the Top 10 of the polls? When we lose to that bad non-con team the narrative is we had unfair expectations.

  • Ranked outside of the Top 10? No respect.

Somewhat true probably of all fan bases but UVA’s fan base is somewhat like the kid who has a late growth spurt to make the varsity team / cool kid club and still carries the insecurities. Or tries and plays the underdog narrative.

Now let’s go Hoos. Just win.


Kenpom is built to predict what will happen next. So it still thinks Tech is a pretty good team.

March Madness brackets are supposed to be based on who has earned it.

So it’s reasonable for Tech to be high on Kenpom, but it was bonkers that Lunardi had them in the tournament.


March Madness brackets are supposed to generate clicks. Lunardi is doing his job.

Also, the tournament isn’t played in January. So I would think that these brackets have some element of where the think teams will end up. At least until you get closer to March.


That’s a fair point.

But…… I’d argue the last place team in the ACC still doesn’t belong lol


Here’s where I’m really confused on Bracketology…

Tech is 8-7, 0-4 in conference, 124th in WAB at -1.9, all bad numbers. But they are projected to finish 18-12, 10-9, and I’m not sure where that puts them in WAB, but I’m assuming they would be better there too.

Minnesota is 10-4, 1-4 in conference with 2 losses to Michigan St, at home to Illinois and at Indiana. Wins at Mississippi St and at Michigan. Current WAB rank is 44 at 1.1. But they are projected to go 18-12, 8-12 in the Big Ten. They are not going to put an 8-12 team in the tournament.

So my issue with whatever is going on is, are these brackets actually based on what a team has already done? Then yes Minnesota should be in the current field, but Tech should be nowhere near it. Or are they based on projections of what is going to happen. Because then yes, I can see Tech as a bubble team, but Minnesota would at best be a next four out or below. And I’m saying this as a Minnesota resident and fan!

Confusing stuff…


Yeah, this is basically why bracketology on Jan 15 is silly. They’re not basing it on “if the season ended today” but they’re also not basing it on a prediction of the end of the season so they wind up doing this weird hybrid thing.

It’s all a bit silly, but it’s also fun.


This isn’t really our fight this year but the way Jesse Newell does his AP ballot is silly. He basically just copies KenPom. That’s dumb. There’s no point in human ballots if you’re just gonna copy the computer. I wish Ken himself would put Newell on blast and say this, because Ken thinks the point of human ballots is to reflect the sum of knowledgeable eye tests of various beat writers.

But now to put the voters on blast who put Auburn #1: they have zero good wins in the non con. They lost to the only good team they played in noncon (UConn) and they’ve won one impressive conference game (Bama on the road, their arch rival). They’re a top 5 team, not a #1 team.

To be fair still having an AP top 25 in this era is silly. Only purpose it serves is helping people who only tune in from time to time know which game to watch on the rare day they watch college sports. From what I’ve seen over the last 10+ years most voters would rather not have the burden of voting. Their employers make them do it. They just don’t have GAs they can pass the ballot off to like coaches do for the coaches’ poll lol

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Fun watching high level game - Purdue Illinois… both top 20 teams have freshmen coming in and playing… I noticed at least 2 of them made mistakes and stayed in through their usual rotation… Wonderful idea