I would feel much better if NIL weren’t a thing. Those millions in Kentucky (or hundreds of thousands) are going to be hard to turn down. Otherwise I’d be feeling as good as you could going against Cal
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If he’s really 6’5", maybe Taine Murray can defend the wing in a Brogdan way? He certainly seems strong and athletic enough. But international players always arrive with a lot of mystery, so who knows if he’ll be a hit (like Salt or Diakite) or a miss (choose your own favorite).
Think of how much money he could make being Kyle guy like at UVa. Think people are underestimating how well players can do at UVa basketball.
Since we’re all busy micro-analyzing HGN’s words (which I’m sure he’s not a fan of), I’m gonna say its something like:
1% to get Brice (or wherever you want to peg “its not realistic”) is low, because:
- Yes, if we get Bond, we almost certainly won’t get Brice as well (lets say that’s 2%)
- We’re in good shape with Bond, but a LOOOONG way from 100%. Maybe a 40-60% chance of getting Bond, kinda in that neighborhood. Lets say 50/50 for easy math.
- If we don’t get Bond, we have a fighting shot at Brice. Its too early to be very precise on that, though our odds are obviously a lot worse than our chance of getting Bond since he’s so far along and down to a small group. Brice’s a smart kid who values good academics, and there seems to be some positive feeling. He’s gotten a zillion offers, but UVA is clearly at least one of the better ones. Lets say UVA has a 20% chance of landing Brice if we don’t get Bond.
- So, our chance of getting Brice is about 0.5x0.02 (if we get Bond) + 0.5x0.2 (if we don’t get Bond) = 0.11. Given where things stand now, we have about an 11% of getting Brice and that will either go up sharply if we miss out on Bond (in which case we’ll care a lot more about it) or down sharply if we get Bond (in which case we’ll care a lot less about it).
- 11% doesn’t seem super high compared to a 50/50 chance at Bond, but for a talented 4* kid with a horde of suitors in the early stages of recruiting, its definitely a “very real chance”.
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I think they’ll do quite well but UK players in general are going to blow almost everyone out the water except Duke. And that’s before you get to him being the son of a UK legend
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Cal is gonna be a master at using NIL
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I’m sure that he will do fine at uk in that regard. Just think there is a benefit to go to UVa as well that may make that difference less obvious. If he goes to Kentucky and gets crowded out by five stars, that initial gold rush may dwindle if he’s not getting PT
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AAU event this weekend. McKneely and Julian Phillips amongst others. Will be interesting if Tony is there himself front and center.
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I agree. I’m generally down on WFS’s negative comments about current players, which is a pet peeve of mine, but I don’t have an issue with his opinion on the chances of various recruits picking VIrginia. In fact, I’ve been liking a lot of his recent comments because he’s got a good sense of humor…
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He certainly did nil with the #1 recruiting class last year.
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hahahahaha. nice shot
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You’re right though. With that fan base and the fact that Cal is a used car salesman, maximizing NIL is right down his alley.
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He has already been doing it when guys declare. Sets up events after season where guys can make money who have already signed with agents etc
Don’t think the hope is to straight up beat out Kentucky. At least I don’t think that’s a likely outcome. The hope is to position ourselves as the leading alternative for when DJ Wagner and hopefully another 5 star guard commit to UK. Then hopefully he sees the full inn there and goes for the best coach and program fit once the hometown school isn’t as attractive of an option.
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While I still think landing Sheppard is a low probabily for UVA given all the factors in favor of UK, this may be a counter-example to the usual successful UVA recruiting effort in the sense that the longer it goes on the better for us. It would mean that Sheppard and his family are really considering other schools, and, as you say, it becomes more and more likely that Cal will offer and sign a higher rated recruit at the same position.
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Rick coaches Mashburn and Richard coaches Jr. closest thing I could think of immediately.
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Wait. Didn’t JJ coach Bryant and Brandon and BJ?
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Also worth noting that Sheppard is still a ‘23. It has an extremely long way to go and is one of the few recruiting battles that even has the possibility of outlasting Keels’.
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And Anthony Oliver and his son AJ, yes
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Now, wait a second here. I don’t know what you’re talking about with this remark. I can’t recall every comment I’ve made on here, so perhaps I’ve let a negative remark slip out here and there, but the extent of my negative opinions on current players or next year’s team amount to the following:
- I’m not a fan of the Reece/Kihei combo
- I think guys might be too optimistic on Taine’s immediate impact. Not that I’m not bullish his potential long term
- I’m concerned about post depth next year
- I’m not sure we have all the right pieces to have a really good team next year
So I think you’re way off base on this one. If that’s too negative, I don’t know how you can make it through a day in this world.
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