3 Q1 wins is what i hear
4 Likes
The ACC is def getting 4 teams in the tourney, now we need to finish strong enough for the committee to consider a 5th
2 Likes
They just need to win one of their big games left (Duke, VT, Clemson), I think. Surely they wonāt whiff three timesā¦right? They will probably rue not giving themselves another Q1 opportunity in the non-con, but they literally did the same thing in 2021-22 in terms of having good predictive metrics and not enough Q1 opportunities to build their resume.
Thatās not good news for us. Not long ago the narrative was that ACC was weak and probably only gets 3 teams in. Since then the ACC teams have only played other (weak) ACC teams.
Think we really need a UNC or Duke win if Wakeās case is really that strong.
2 Likes
I still think we are sitting ok if we can go 2-2 the next two weeks. That said assuming the two are BC and GT we might be headed to Dayton.
The split with WF still favors them since the loss in Winston Salem was so lopsided, so they could easily jump us in seed.
3 Likes
As the NET turns!
Wake Forest NET is up to 26 today! It rose 14 spots after the drubbing of Pitt. That now gives us 3 Q1 wins! Unfortunately NC Stateās loss drops them from 75 to 80 so we lost a Q2 win. Syracuse is 84. Would be nice if they could both get into the top 75. OUr NET up two this morning to 48.
7 Likes
I think wins over BC/GT get us in. But we still would likely need to avoid some catastrophic loss in the ACC tournament to a team outside the top 100 (GT/UL/ND) or getting humiliated by someone.
6 Likes
Thereās been talk over the last couple of weeks of SOR metrics being weighed more heavily for selection and quality metrics more heavily for seeding. Will be interesting to see if this holds up on Selection Sunday. If it does we will be a perfect Dayton candidate given our SOR far outpaces our quality metrics
2 Likes
Part of me likes the Dayton path. A win would give us confidence and get the NCAA monkey off our back again. Also expect that weād be playing a mediocre P6 team which seems like our ideal type of NCAA tournament opponent
2 Likes
Just. Get. In.
10 Likes
Last year this was definitely the case and makes sense. The committee should reward teams based on what they did (performance metrics KPI/SOR), not what they could do (predictive metrics), at least when it comes to inclusion. Then you can use the predictive based metrics to help sort through the teams and seed them.
Last year the last 3 teams in Pittsburgh, Arizona St., Nevada had performance metrics averages of 54. 49.5, and 43 respectively. While the predictive metrics were 67.3, 68.7, and 66.
The first 3 teams out were Oklahoma St, Rutgers, UNC and their performance metrics averages were 47, 52.5, and 49 but their predictive metrics were much better at 38.3, 33.3, and 39.3 So the predictive metrics were much worse for the last 3 in as opposed to the first 3 out. The performance metrics were slightly better as a whole for the last 3 in.
Also another thing that separated those teams were winning % vs Q1 and Q1/Q2/Q3 combined
Q1 %
Pitt 4-4 0.500
Arizona St. 5-6 0.455
Nevada 4-5 0.444
Oklahoma St 6-12 0.333
Rutgers 4-7 0.364
UNC 1-9 0.100
Q1/Q2/Q3
Pitt 12-9 0.571
ASU 14-11 0.560
Nevada 18-10 0.643
OSU 13-15 0.464
Rutgers 12-14 0.462
UNC 14-13 0.519
It also didnt help Rutgers that they had 4 Q3 losses. Texas A&M now has 5!
3 Likes
It would be interesting to play as an underdog or at least even with our 1st round matchup. Should take some stress off. With this team my best hope is round of 32 and I would call that successful.
2 Likes
Twss
3 Likes
Folks, this is why you miss 10 of 11 FTs so that you donāt damage your opponentās NET while getting the win!
8 Likes
1 Like
Most years a play-in team gets to the round of 32 if not further. I think there is something to getting the first game nerves out a game early. The flip side is every year two of the play-in teams never get to the round of 64.
1 Like
Yeah, I donāt know how I feel about Dayton, since weāve never taken that path.
Part of me thinks it would be good to shake those first game jitters. Part of me thinks if you lose, it would feel like we were never part of the ārealā tournament.
But it would still be better than the NIT.
5 Likes
I get this for sure. With that being said, playing a mediocre P5 is what weād be doing in a 7-10 or 8-9 matchup. So Iād rather not have to play pre round of 64 if possible.
I also think if weāre playing in Dayton itās because we limped across the finish line and the season is kind of dead because weāve completely stalled.
1 Like
Getting to the NCAAT with this group will be an accomplishment IMO.
2 Likes
Our performance variance is so huge, it is hard to say. In any case, the variance does not favor much of a run.
1 Like