My rough intuition is that the results of non-conference play lead to each conference having a certain range of NCAAT slots, because even if a team who did well in non-con falls on their face in conference play, that means some other team is picking up quality wins and boosting their resume.
I imagine if we looked at the TourneyCast at the end of non-con play, the summed probabilities of ACC teams getting in would be within a slot or two of what it is right now.
I simply canceled my Twitter account, and that has made my life much, much better. 
Unless you have teams that performed really poorly in non-con, so much so that theyāre absolute land mines for other teams in the conference with little opportunity to be much else.
I think of FSU ironically driving the conference down by being decent in ACC play. Or any Louisville or Notre Dame win.
Look at the Big East. Georgetown and DePaul are godawful, both lost terrible OOC games. But the rest of the Big East consistently beats them. Meanwhile, we lose to Notre Dame and Miami loses to Louisville, and so it makes the whole conference look bad through the inevitable transitive comparisons.
I just have a hard time taking any of this seriously when the same people hyping up a 3 bid ACC and 2 bid PAC 12 are trying to tell me the Mountain West will get 5 bids. How the hell is a lower ranked conference going to get as many bids as the ACC and PAC 12 combined? Just doesnāt make sense when you look at the actual metrics
This is a good example of what drives me crazy. The Mountain West is very exciting to watch, BUT it is the current darling of the college basketball media, and in two weeks it will be something else; most of them have no credibility at all.
Thereās a better chance the Acc gets 5 bids vs 2. I would bet the conference gets 4 or 5 in. The gaming of the metrics puts the Acc at a disadvantage. The conference did much better OOC this year. Can I conference as a whole get out of playing 250+ net teams or scheduling neutral site power 5 ganes? Youād rather play away especially in the early season while teams are still figuring it out
Regular reminder than Rothstein is a kind of a hack. He does surface research on every single team so seems informed because of breadth, but itās all pretty shallow. I donāt think he could tell you what blocker mover or continuity is.
Alright, who do yāall want tonight? Absolutely hate both programs but someone has to win. Tech is surprisingly ahead of us in the NET (really riding that Iowa State win) so do we root against the bubble team?
Either way, I think VT wins. Theyāre good at home and Duke, on top of not playing well lately, just never plays well in Cassell. Itās even more of a house of horrors for them than it is to us.
Duke, beacuse as you said we are likely gonna be in bubble comp with them.
Having watched the ACC (try to) protect Duke with explicit bias two weekends straight, itās clear that Duke is going to be propped up enough to finish 2nd the ACC this season whether we like it or not. I want UVA to finish strong enough to be in that 3rd position, at least no worse than 4th, come March. Meaning our competition at this stage is Wake, Clemson, FSU, and to slightly lesser degrees State and VT.
Who foresaw Florida State being this good at the end of OOC? Or, is it better for them to be lucky than good?
Donāt forget they added Primo Spears just in time for ACC play when the ā2x undergraduate transfer limitationā rule was suspended. Itās not the only reason for the improved play, but he is making a difference.
I canāt vote for Dukeā¦ever! A VT win puts us ahead of Duke in the standings (assuming ND win), and we will have a crack at both of them. Also, I am not just assuming Duke will finish 2nd; they have not been especially good, honestly. Overrated in my view. I suppose in some sense I will be watching dispassionately because I vehemently hate both of them; but I never want to root for Dukeā¦just canāt do it!
Iād prefer Duke wins. VT probably has 3 better wins than us if they win tonight. If we lose at VT, might be tough to put together a better resume than them by seasons end
Prediction: If number 30 on Duke keeps his game on the block Duke wins. If 30 tries to showcase his 3 pointers for the NBA Duke loses.
I think heāll have a lot of pick and pop opportunities. Canāt see Lynn Kidd covering that well.
I would let him pop
Duke -3.5 seems like easy money.
Too many qualifiers in this statement. We just have to take care of our business regardless of what happens. In this situation good teams do just that.