So barring something crazy like VTs insane turn-around in the second half of last season… it appears based on below the ACC should have a shot of at least 7 maybe 8 teams in the NCAA tournament…
I hate to champion VT in any way shape or form, but they’re a good bet for another back-half of conference play surge. According to KenPom, VT has played by far the toughest conference schedule of anyone in the ACC so far (whereas Notre Dame has gone 1-8 against the easiest conference schedule. Could they might be even worse than they look? Our schedule has been roughly middle of the pack) and the back half eases up for them.
That having been said, it doesn’t ease up quite as dramatically as before. Last season they started conference play 2-7 but then 6 of their last 11 games were against teams ranked 105th or worse by KenPom. They went 9-2, but by far their best win over that stretch was beating eventual 10-seed Miami at Miami and the only other decent team they played was UNC who beat them solidly. That was the mother of all “ease ups”.
This season, 5 of their last 12 games will be against teams ranked 140th or worse by KenPom, which will help them a lot. But this time they have a bunch of actually hard games mixed in with the cupcakes. They still have Home and Aways to go with both Duke and Miami, we don’t suck this year, and they have a game with sneaky-good Pitt (who probably would have been their 3rd toughest game opponent during the back half of last year but are only their 6th toughest this year).
So, I do expect VT to go on a run, and it might get them publicity. But it also might not because they’ll be so far behind the 8-ball when it happens that no one might care. If you finish hot but end up at 8-12, does it really matter? Though they’ll probably get some annoyingly favorable coverage as a “hot” team coming into into the ACC tournament thanks to having just played a bunch of games against Louisville, GT, BC, ND, etc.
Similar to last year though, if Tech goes on a great run to close the year it still very likely won’t be enough. Had Tech not beaten duke in the ACCT final last year they weren’t getting in the tournament. I think they need to sweep Duke, UVA, Miami, @Miami to have a chance at making the tournament. Anything short of that and I think they fall short and frankly they don’t have the talent to not lose a game they should win. They are going to continue to wear down with their started playing so many minutes – especially Pedulla who has been AWFUL lately and looks exchausted
I think we see conference results “come home” a bit in the back half. I think us, UNC, and Duke will get double byes. Miami, NC State, and I guess Clemson (begrudgingly) will compete for the 4th.
VPI will improve with Cattoor back, and a slightly easier schedule, but I don’t see them doing enough to get in the dance. Best non-con win is Penn St. Meh.
FSU will be the team nobody wants to play down the stretch, but they built themselves too big of a hole, and won’t be able to win enough games at the ACC-T.
Yeah, if VT really catches fire and wins all 5 of those games, then they’re probably set. Because they’ll probably also beat 'Cuse at home, putting them at 12-8 in the ACC and 22-ish wins before the ACC tournament. Plus, it’d be huge for their metrics. I think that’s unlikely, but if it happened they’d be infuriatingly smug about it.
And it’d be disastrous for Duke, because they still have road games against us and Miami, plus both UNC games. They’d probably end up 11-9 or even 10-10 in the ACC with 19-20 wins before the ACC tournament. If they lose their first round ACCT matchup on top of that they could well be NIT-bound.
I would add… the reason they won’t want to play them is not because they think FSU will make the tourney, but give them a Quad 3/4 loss. Glad we are already through that gauntlet trap game scenario.
Yeah, 100%. I am deeply grateful UVA finished the series with FSU with a pair of wins before FSU fully got themselves together. The Q3/4 losses FSU is going to hang on 2-3 of Clemson, Syracuse, NC State and Pitt are going to really dent their bubble chances.
Edit - Especially Clemson who still have two games to go against FSU.
I think Clemson has banked enough wins and has an easy enough remaining schedule to lock them for a double-bye. 13 wins might be enough to get a double-bye and they should be able to clear that. UNC and Duke both have tougher remaining schedules by a decent margin.
Our schedule has played out nicely. FSU twice when they’re way down but also caught them early before they figured it out. Clemson at home only. Duke at home only. Louisville twice when they’re practically gimme games this year. Syracuse twice when we match up really well.
Rest of the schedule sets up very nicely. @Cuse and @VT b2b is tougher than it looks but if we keep playing like this then I see 2-0, 1-1 at worst
Yeah, just mathematically, it’ll be tough for Clemson NOT to get a double-bye. They have some tough games coming up, but they’re already 8-1 and still have games to go against GT, BC, Louisville and ND plus a home game against 'Cuse. It’d take an absolutely epic collapse for them not to get 13+ ACC wins. If anyone can do it, its Clemson, but its really unlikely.
For Clemson I think it comes down to guard health … with Hunter and Hemenway both still out … can they win the next 3 games vs Ga Tech, FSU and BC before playing Miami and UNC???
Hemenway has the dreaded @DavetheWave plantar fasciitis … also Likely means the Hoos get Clemson at their healthiest on 2/28 …
Also NC State needs Smith to have a chance to win games against most …
Agreed on NCST, although apparently they’re saying Smith is day-to-day now. They were appropriately super cautious with him in the arena because he reported some neck pain and numbness in his arm after the fall, but looks like all the X-rays came back clear. So he may be back pretty soon.
Duke’s at 5-3 and still has @Mia, @UVA, @UNC, and @Cuse along with tricky games @VT, and home vs UNC and Wake. If they get a double bye, they will have earned it.
Did I really just hear one of the TV announcers diagram in detail how good Duke’s switching defense has been tonight when they’ve given up 38 points in the first 15 minutes of the game?