Oh I agree 100% with all that. Still it’s even better when you beat the competitors head-to-head.
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Am I alone in caring very little about finishing first in the ACC? I want to see a great regular season where we get better over time, but March Madness is the place.
Part of it is that it looks bad when we dominate and win the ACC and “underperform” in March.
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… You might be the only one, haha.
But no, in all seriousness, I definitely get prioritizing March. But I’ve said before - my personal hope for any season is to put something in the rafters at JPJ, so at least one of either ACC regular season title, ACC tournament title, or Sweet 16/better. Those are things that go in the books and on banners forever.
Also, I think we overthink the “looking bad because of difference in tourney and regular season results”. Dominating the regular season is an amazing and separate achievement, and all those wins we rack up will put Tony in the hall of fame and are things I’ll remember fondly forever. There’s 350+ teams and only one can win the title in any year, so the tourney shouldn’t be the only measure of success. It’s an incredibly important one, but I love conference titles too.
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I would agree for the most part, but the best path to the sweet 16 or greater is a higher seed, which predicates being as high as possible in the regular season standings and on a lesser degree the ACC tournament… so while I get your point, I think the two ideas are related.
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For sure. I guess my point is that if there’s a scenario where we win out but don’t win the ACC … I’m not sweating or that upset. (That’s not the case this season, just a hypothetical).
In relative terms, would much rather see strong game play at end of season + over perform in March than an ACC regular season title and underperform in March.
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This may be my contrarian-ness, but in general, I’d like to see “build towards March” be more of a program philosophy than “build towards the doldrums of the ACC season and then cross fingers March works out.” One could fairly ask how those things are different, but that’s a longer post.
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I went back and checked the last 16 years or so and almost every national champion also won the conference regular season in that season. The only two teams that weren’t close to winning the regular season were both UConn teams (2011 & 2014). Other than that Duke was 1 game back in 2015 and surprisingly Villanova was 1 game back in 2018. Every other champion had at least a share of the conference regular season so I think winning in the regular season is the best indicator of winning in March.
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I feel like I read your data and come to the exact opposite conclusion: winning the regular season conference crown doesn’t seem like a particularly good indicator… it’s at like 60% or so in the last 11 tourneys. Not that high!
I’d read that post, because I’m not really sure how different those two things would be in practice. Or how different they would be to the staff in terms how they pursue them. This is a thing in the NBA but for NBA-specific reasons IMO: 1) many more games in the regular season that mean getting guys rest has an impact in the playoffs, 2) 7-game series that changes how you have to scout and prepare to be scouted.
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2 broad themes: (1) build resilience** and (2) develop more of your high ceiling, high variance guys earlier in the season.
I think in some seasons it doesn’t matter (like 18-19) but in many, maybe most seasons it does.
** system resilience, not personal resilience. Tony can’t really build personal resilience IMO
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Some intriguing games tomorrow:
- Vt@Miami - is that a must win for the Hokies. Only a 4 point spread kinda seems low but Tech has looked better last two games
-Clemson@BC - Does BC have some Conte magic in them? Clemson is bound for a stinker and a loss here would put us firmly in the drivers seat for 1st place in the ACC
-WF@Duke - probably a must win for Wake’s tourney hopes barring some late season magic. Feels like their last two teams have been a step in the right direction but likely two non-tourney teams
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I hate to spoil this, but no. No I don’t think they do.
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You’re probably right but crazier things have happened
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BC +3.5 at home is a bit Fishy to me - Vegas knows…
But that may just be cause Clemson games seem to come down to last minute anyway
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I’m looking forward to UVA playing a healthy UNC, Duke and Clemson … if they are all healthy it will offer a truer glimpse into the March potential of this team … I’m a little trepidatious about it knowing in the past - our best March runs were teams with multiple NBA caliber guys on the roster … currently I don’t think we have any that would contribute much to an NBA team next year …
Actually at Tech on Saturday should be good as well as they are now the healthiest they have been all year …
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I’m feeling good about the Clemson and Duke games as both are at home, and I feel we match up pretty well. Tech is going to give us their A game and we always struggle in Cassell so that could easily be an L.
I predict we drop @VT and @UNC but win the remaining games, although can’t sleep on NCST at home as they could be a tougher out than expected. That would be 16-4 in ACC and should be enough to win the conference.
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Our conference SOS is very favorable - both per Torvik (lowest ACC SOS) and eye test. Lville and VPI twice. Duke and Clemson only at JPJ. And one that won’t show up in the metrics – UNC at home without Bacot or Nance.
But b/c I’m a skeptic like @DavetheWave 
I also think it will be good for this team to get tested against Duke, Clemson (normal sized balls, hopefully), and a healthy UNC.
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I see 15-5, no idea who the L’s are though. I’d like to think we handle Clemson at H, Duke is always a herring for us so I could see us dropping that one. Then yeah, 2 of VT UNC and State, maybe ND as well, they can be squirrely.
Excellent points about being tested. More than happy to see us drop some to be better prepared for March…care far more about a SS or E8 run than winning the reg season
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It is tough to win the reg season, the ACCT, and then make a run in the NCAAT. Unless you are a dominant team. Not gonna happen for us like that this year.
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