The reason that the either-or proposition has been brought up this often is because even the Championship team (maybe even Tony- though I can’t be sure), mentioned that even though we lost to FSU in the ACC tournament it allowed them to Rest?/Refocus? on the NCAA tournament- per Unbelievable.
The last day of the ACC tournament (Sunday) is only one or two days before the 1st game in the NCAA tournament so that’s why the Championship team losing on Friday/Saturday were probably happy to rest until our Monday/Tuesday 1st round game…(Although we could have played on Thursday/Friday now that I think of it). Either way a 5-7 day rest period was probably appreciated at that point.
Yeah, and I also understand that some argue the regular season should be used for experimentation and development (even at the expense of losing games) so that the team is playing its best ball in March. (Or at least they say they want that, until we start doing it and losing, lol.) But I can’t be a fan and be hoping we lose. Plus pinning the whole season on the crapshoot of the NCAAT is a recipe for madness.
Oh yeah I agree! I think that we should win *whatever hardware we can, because that also means the media is talking about it. Clemson this year has been leading the conference for over a month now I believe, and rightfully so, whenever the sports pundits talk about the ACC- Clemson has to be mentioned. So of course I like that for us as well
I liked the way one poster put it the other day (sorry I forget who): I just want to hang banners.
Let’s face it, this team is almost certainly not going to win the national championship. We are very probably not going to make the final four. We are unlikely to make the elite eight. And I don’t know if we put sweet 16s in the rafters.
But we have a very real shot at winning the ACC regular season.
As a thought experiment, it was reasonably clear to me that the 2019-2020 team wasn’t likely to reach the Final Four. The Sweet 16 seemed like a good aspiration for that team.
By contrast, it seemed realistic for that team to win the ACC tournament. In my mind, I played out the inevitable thought experiment, “Would I accept losing in the round of 32 if we were to win the ACC tournament?”
Using the “banners matter” philosophy, that year I was willing to accept an ACC tournament championship in exchange for a round of 32 exit.
Losing in the ACCT semis gets you one more day of rest before your first-round game. So you have 6-7 days instead of 5-6. Yeah, doesn’t seem like much benefit. I think the stronger argument is that 3 games in 3 days really wipes you out in a way that 2 in 2 doesn’t? But still. Hang the banner.
By the time we get to the acc semis (should we be so fortunate) there is a strong probability that we will be playing a team I hate, so yeah I’m gonna want us to go ahead and win that game
I want to give a bit more substance to my thoughts, since I’m a bit of a heretic on some of this stuff:
First - the importance of the NCAAT, relatively speaking. My view is that NCAAT is far and away the most important part of the season, but it is not the only important part. Also, it’s not natty or bust – I think it’s great for the program to rack up final 4s, sweet 16s, tourney appearances etc. Regular season banners and ACCT banners are super cool, too.
Second - also, this stuff isn’t in a vacuum. We’ve been really awesome in the ACCT and the ACC regular season. Our tourney outcomes have basically been natty and disappointments. The natty was great; but the disappointments were disappointing. Hence my increased focus on March…
Third, sort of drawing these things together – Is there a way we approach the regular season and/or the big dance that makes our disappointments more likely? I started a bit on that the other day, but my view is “maybe” …
If we win regular season I think ACCT only matters if you lose early in NCAA but if that happens then the story is how you underperformed. We need March Madness success. More Final 4’s more Elite 8’s. Our seeding would suggest we were due a lot more of those than we got. Would easily trade a ACCT when we have reg season for NCAA success (or chance at NCAA success in multiple years)
Positive addendum – I don’t think we have a 6-game tourney run in us, but I think we do have a 4-game run in us (fingers crossed) so all in all, this has probably been a pretty good year for Tony to run the strategy he’s running this year. I think there’s a material chance of a final 4 berth, which would be pretty awesome. Don’t make me define “material.”
If UNC can make the final four last year with that team than UVA can certainly get to the final four. Who inside the top 5 right now scares you? They’ve already beaten two teams that would be sweet 16 caliber opponents.
Okay, I’ll go against character and add another negative here. A lot of posters are annoyed that our team metrics (11 BPI, 13 Kenpom,14 NCAA Net, and 18 Torvik) don’t match our current poll rankings (4 and 6). I’ll posit that this discrepancy does matter. I still think UVA has the best chance to win the ACC, and hopefully the ACC tournament (tired of VT crowing about their win last year), but since 2012 whenever we were considered “elite” and received a 1 or 2 seed in the NCAA tournament (2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019), our team metrics were better and basically matched our ranking. It’s no coincidence that in 3 of those 5 years we finished S16, E8, and NC, while in the other years, we only made it to the second round once, lost 1st round twice, and were NIT twice. I’ll concede that in 2012 and 2017 we were limping into the tournament with injuries and dismissals and 2021 was a Covid disaster, and also our team metrics are currently near the top among our non-elite teams. But right now our overall profile suggests that a Sweet Sixteen finish would be the best to hope for, and a 2nd round loss is the likely finish.
Others have already detailed our current deficiencies (lack of a long, athletic wing defender and/or inside shot blocker who can be on the floor more than 15 minutes a game, lack of overall height among our top 5 offensive players, etc), but I’ll add that I think our team’s identity offensively and particularly defensively is a work in progress later in the season than usual for a Tony team. Many have praised our team’s flexibility, but can we switch seamlessly from a small ball three point shooting team to a taller, more inside to mid-range team with better defensive potential? Last night against Syracuse, that switch seemed kind of janky.
On the positive side, we haven’t seen a Tony team quite like the current one before, so maybe it will defy the usual narrative and the team will hit its full stride in February and March. Probably need Kadin to up his game considerably and for Dunn and iMac to continue improving rapidly for that to happen though. I agree with Dave and others that the upcoming three games at VT and home against NCState and Duke will reveal a lot, with at UNC and home against Clemson completing the tale about whether UVA is a first or second weekend (and beyond?) team in the NCAAs. On the other hand, even if we go lose two or more out of that group, maybe karma will further reward Tony and we’ll still go on a thrilling NCAA tournament run after a disappointing 2020 through 2022.
Probably some more Kadin (15+) and a little more Dunn, but it’s also apart from MPG, things like get those two and i-Mac a bit more comfortable with what we are doing offensively.
