FanDuel currently has us at +550 to make the final 4, which implies a probability of 15.4% and I wish I could short that.
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Iāll go out on a limb and say at least 60 min per game combined for Isaac, Dunn and Shedrick.
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I wonder if because the regular season is *so long, and if we donāt win a game or play well there is always tomorrow. *Or we are used to not playing well for a stretch during the regular season, but know that we have enough time to turn the game season around and based on those ālong termā habits that we take that approach into the NCAA tournament at times.
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Yeah, I think itās closer to 10% or so
I buy 10
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Is that the recipe for making the final four? I see a UVA team that shares the ball, really well and their play is getting better and better. Right now UVA has 5 (almost) guys averaging double digits points. Potentially could be 6. Thatās a very well balanced team and the emergence of Dunn and McNeely is going to pay dividends in the tourney time.
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Yeah I donāt get this line of thinking (that we canāt make a final four). We are currently integrating new weapons in our arsenal and have great team chemistry. There are no real dominant teams this year just a bunch of really good teams (of which I believe we belong). If anything, I think this particular team is less vulnerable to a bad upset given the versatility and experience of this group. If we have a 3 seed itās probably 50/50 whether we even have to play a 1 seed to make the final four.
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Curious ā¦ in your mind - what makes up a dominant team?
2018 Villanova was probably the most dominant March team of the last 20 years and yet they were 14-4 in conference play and it took OT to win the Big East tournament against Providence who was a 10 seed and lost 1st round in the madness.
One might say that 2015 Villanova at 33-3 was even more dominant in the regular season but they lost in the 2nd round to 8 seeded NC State after winning the Big East title game by 17.
2016 Villanova lost 5 games but won it all.
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Is there a way to see Kenpom ratings each year before the NCAA tournament? I think that would be a decent way to see which years had one or two dominant teams. I think itās hard for humans to differentiate teams at that level especially on a year by year basis.
Right now I think there are clearly 2 dominant teams ā¦
Both Houston and Tennessee are outscoring opponents by 20 points per game which is largely unheard of this deep in the season ā¦ especially for a Power 6 team. Iād probably say that Houstonās conference is 7th or 8th.
Yes, but you have to download a .csv file and sort it, and thatās a lot of hassle, even for a dork like me
Only 1 loss with Phil Booth in the starting lineup, one of the most āunsungā great hoops players of the 2010s. Also, I always thought the Bagley/Carter Duke team couldāve beaten them, since they had no good big, but instead Self coached circles around K in the Elite 8, and Nova had no issues with Kansas.
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Maybeā¦ but imagine those 2 bigs trying to guard the quick Nova dudes.
and for Tennessee this year Vescovi has missed 3 games and Jordan-James has missed 8.
and for Houston they had Walker get hurt in December and hasnāt returned - was averaging 15 min per game. and Sharp has missed 4 games. (15 min per game) including the loss to Alabama.
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Yeah, and Bagley was (still is?) kind of a cipher on defense.
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Iām not going to venture an opinion on our final four chances because Iām not that smart (but just smart enough to know that). But I do think this seasonās ceiling is Shedrick. If heās functional for 10-15 a game when we need him for matchups, then I think we can make a deep run in March. If heās the dude who showed up yesterday fouling 3 point shooters and getting abused by Jesse Edwards, then I will be thrilled just making the second weekend and would not be shocked if we get bounced in the second round if we catch a bad matchup with a strong big. Part of what helps our guards play defense is knowing theyāve got help behind them which lets them push up on opposing guards, helping defend the 3 and letting them stay out of foul trouble by not being over aggressive cutting off drives. Right now, we just donāt have that and I think itās the driving factor behind why we are heavily reliant on offense to win games at this point.
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Its impossible to gauge because making a Final Four is impossible. Only guarantees (outside of UCLA maybe) in my Lifetime were Houston in 80s and UNLV in early 90s. Duke won back to back 91-92? But hardly guaranteed
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+30 adjusted efficiency on kenpom is typically a good benchmark. I realize there are a couple teams close. 2018 it was us and Villanova (before the umbc game) which checks out. Also if you remember how many elite teams there were in 2015 - 6 teams of 30+.
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The 2007 Florida team felt like a pretty good bet to get back to the Final Four.
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True. But I lived in Brasil then so didnt really know
I was so mad that year. Did a bracket challenge with a bunch of friends. My roommate, who followed no sports, was like āI bet the tournament final will just be the same as the football final - Florida over Ohio Stā. And I said āThatās dumb and wonāt happen.ā Well guess who won?
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So Shedrick comes in and has the best offensive rating and the best defensive rating of anyone on the team in his 11 minutes ā¦ but wasnāt good??
Counter argument is we didnāt use him enough in the dunker spot over the zone to force Cuse to stop jamming the high post ā¦ I think you are confusing Sheds defense on Edwards with BVPās ā¦
Oh and he didnāt foul Bell on the 3 ā¦ that was inept college officials not knowing how to officiate the offensive leg kick into a defenderā¦ and that play happened because BVP was butterfingers on the rebound attempt
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