ACC Basketball November

The ball never touches the ground and they had Ville running around lost on defense. Like they were chasing their own shadows

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Him or Fanta. Definitely that podcast

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And so this is the question- how is it these mid major teams- NCCU, Stetson & Bellarmine are *already running an efficient offiense/defense, meanwhile (even though we won) us and other ACC teams seem to really not be able to grow until later in the season. Do our teams have a complicated offensive set? Is our coaching not getting these guys ready for the season right out of the gate? (I donā€™t count TB in this last scenario because we know heā€™s a good coach, BUT our offensive and defense schemes seem to take alot of time to master, and is dependent on experienced leadership).

In other words what are these teams doing to breed this much confidence, and EXECUTION into their team, day one.

Those teams you named may have more seniors and less turnover. Tony talked about NCCUā€™s experience and strength.

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Small sample size that doesnā€™t hold when you look at the whole college basketball landscape. More low majors lost the buy games by a metric ton than were close in the second half.

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I think I basically reject the premise. It was a bit true last year, but the low and mid majors are, in general, dealing with the same roster turnover issues as everyone else. NCC had two new transfer starters. Stetsonā€™s leading scorer was a transfer.

Iā€™m not sure I buy the theory that ACC teams need more time to gel, in general / in the new era. It was maybe true last year, but it might not be true this year.

Basically, I think FSU is a special circumstance (injuries and NCAA hold out). Louisville just kinda stinks and played the worst team in D-1 with their inability play help defense. And we struggled a bit because ā€¦ well, weā€™ve got a whole thread about that!

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NCC has a guy that averaged 10 per game last year that went 0-7 against us for what it is worth. I think same position as our JG so maybe just a wash there

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Just thinking of the two UVa teams that bookended our 2014-2019 run:

  • Our 2014 team struggled out of the gate. We fumbled through different lineups as we were incorporating a new PG and often two other new starters (Brogs most of the time, Gill some of the time). So basically 2.5 new starters. And we struggled finding the right offense. We didnā€™t get humming until ACC season.
  • Our 2019 was basically awesome wire to wire. We were really only incorporating two new rotation pieces - Kihei and Brax, and only one new starter (first it was Brax, then it was Kihei). Dre hadnā€™t been a starter, but he was all but a starter the previous year.

I think some of the younger / higher turnover Power 6 teams follow the first format: like Arkansas last year. And also UNC. They werenā€™t young, necessarily, but new coach and new schemes, and new roster pieces. Then there are teams like Duke last year that had all sorts of new talent but we were basically good from wire to wire. So yeah, Iā€™m not sure what any of this means. What else is new.

Addendum - then there was our schizo 2015-16 team that had almost everyone back, on a senior-led team. They lost to GW, and then lost three early in ACC play. But they also handled two top 10 KenPom teams, including the eventual natty winner (Nova and WVU) in that same stretch by double digits. So itā€™s all a bit ā€” :man_shrugging:

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FWIW, I donā€™t think OOC games are going to get easier as things move forward. With the new transfer rules, there will be a lot of players with P6- level talent moving to mid-majors because they were impatient sitting on the bench. Theyā€™ll develop into quality players, but not at their original schools. Of course, this might be off-set by overachieving (or, underrated) players at mid-majors deciding they want to prove themselves at higher levels. It will be interesting to see if there is an equilibrium in the flow of talent, or if one direction has an advantage.

Good pointā€¦could end being raising the ceiling for P6 and raising the floor for mid-majors. Best talent moves up and the dudes sitting on the bench who play a little in P6 will move down to find playing time.

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And, I have a suspicion the flow of talent will be to the advantage of mid-majors.

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Especially if the flow is uneven (e.g., 2 heading down, 1 heading up) from a numbers perspective as I suspect it will be.

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I am not sure about the net directional talent flow, but I do expect mid-majors will utilize their inbound talent more. Whether that results in better outcomes is for more analytical minds than mine.

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I was going to disagree, but then it occurred to me that P6 teams are generally going with smaller rosters because of transfers. That means fewer players on P6 teams and therefore more players who, a few years ago, would have been on P6 teams but are now available for mid-majors. So, mid-major stars will move up, but on the whole there should be more P6-level talent in the mid-majors than before.

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My lukewarm take is that it seems like a mixed bag for the mid-majors. The risk is they sacrifice continuity for access to better talent. And the other risk is that their best talent wants to bolt for a chance to play on TV and a better shot to go to the tourney.

Ohio lost BVP and Mark Sears to high majors. And it gained only one down transfer (Wiznitzer from Louisville, who Iā€™ve never heard of).

Charlotte lost its best player to a high major, but has also kept its hopes alive through a lot of down transfers from high majors (Milicic, Braswell, Jallow all came from power conferences).

I think thereā€™s a theory of the case that they might get better talent from HS because there are fewer spots at the high majors (e.g., because they are leaving more spots for up transfers, or restricting roster sizes). Iā€™ve tended to think that might be the case, but itā€™s too early to know (1) if itā€™s happening, and (2) what effect itā€™s having.

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I think BVP played 4 years at Ohio however. Tough to say they lost him (unless was only 3 years)

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Yeah, and got everything but a doctorate. But they still lost him. He couldā€™ve played there another year and chose not to (I assume he couldā€™ve stayed ā€“ some Ivies have rules against grad students playing, but Ohio must not).

The Covid 5th year is complicating a lot of this analysis and complicating a lot of teamsā€™ roster planning.

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Put another way: If Kihei left UVa for Ohio this year did we lose Kihei? I will delete momentarily

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Iā€™d say yeah, but itā€™s a bit semantics over substance. The upshot is the same ā€“ couldā€™ve returned but chose to go somewhere else.

However, Iā€™d contradict myself slightly and say we didnā€™t ā€œloseā€ Sam or Jay, even though they couldā€™ve returned for the 5th year, too.

Like I said, that 5th year of eligibility is an odd situation that confuses our typical thoughts on this stuff.

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Yea I get it. Going to the NBA doesnt count as college to college does. I am just being an ass

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