VT 3-1
FSU 1-1 (still play UVA)
ND 1-2
UVA 1-2 (still play FSU)
So we’d be in the 12-13 game vs ND with the winner most likely playing SMU but possible Wake or UNC.
Don’t get too attached to the match up. Playoff Status has our odds between 10% and 14% for every seed between 9th (last Tuesday bye) and 15th, so it’s still completely up in the air.
In case of two-team ties:
Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame
UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, ours is currently GT [7-8], they have a few 6-8 wins)
TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home 3/4)
Syracuse (away 3/8)
Well, the Hokies had a bit of an offensive explosion in the second half - more than doubling their first half output to score 25 points, giving them a grand total of 36 for the game. Impressive!
VT 2-1
UVA 1-1 (still play FSU)
FSU 0-1 (still play UVA)
So we’d be in the 11-14 game vs Syracuse with the winner most likely playing UNC but possibly SMU or Stanford.
Don’t get too attached to the match up. Playoff Status has our odds between 12% and 15% for every seed between 9th (last Tuesday bye) and 14th, so it’s still completely up in the air.
In case of two-team ties:
Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame
UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, we’re currently 2-1 against the 7-8 teams while Tech is 0-2)
TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home 3/4)
Syracuse (away 3/8)
VT 3-1
FSU 1-1 (still play UVA)
ND 1-2
UVA 1-2 (still play FSU)
We’d again be in the 12/13 vs ND. SMU is projected with more wins than Wake so our 2nd round and QF opponents flip to Wake then SMU.
Don’t get too attached to the match-ups. Playoff Status has our odds between 12% and 15% for every seed between 9th (last Tuesday bye) and 15th, so it’s still completely up in the air. We even now have a 5% chance of missing the little dance with NC State and BC both getting to 4-12.
In case of two-team ties:
Hold H2H tiebreak over UVA
Cal
Notre Dame
UVA Holds H2H tiebreak
NC State
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Virginia Tech (comes down to best ACC win, we’re currently 2-0 against the non-VT 7-9 teams while Tech is 1-2)
TBD Tiebreak
Florida State (home 3/4)
Syracuse (away 3/8)
The crazy thing is that NC State could easily go 4-0 with Syracuse, GA Tech, Pitt and Miami as their remaining games. The Pack looked pretty good yesterday against Wake. I’m fearful that our chance to get into the ACC tournament might come down to @ Syracuse. Florida State’s defense looked really good yesterday and they’re going to give us trouble.
I think if we lose the next two, @rushdacote may have to revive ACC-T bubble watch.
Win one of the next two, and I feel pretty good.
But it’s roughly 50-50 that we win one of the next two.
In the M-Red simulator thingie, if you go with their default, we make it as the second to last seed. But that assumes we go 1-3, with a win at Cuse. If you flip the Cuse game, we miss out.
TLDR - if we win one more ACC game, we will probably go to the ACCT. There are scenarios where we go 1-3 and miss, but Cal and Cuse and NC St would collectively have to pull a lot of upsets in those scenarios.
Sorry, @dave92 just realized you pretty much said this already
And one more thing - if we go 1-3, we are actually better off losing both of the next two and winning one of FSU / Cuse, with whom we will have tiebreakers.
My comment above about Fla State’s defense might sound crazy, as they gave up 89 points to Louisville, but if you watched the game like I did, then you likely saw that Louisville had the athleticism and skill to break their press that we don’t have. Fla State looked like a vintage Leonard Hamilton team: long, athletic, and quick.
Syracuse
Pitt
Virginia Tech
Boston College
SMU
Notre Dame
NC State
North Carolina
Miami
Florida State
Louisville
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Clemson
Virginia
Illinois
Duke
California
Stanford
