🫧 Bubble Watch

[Raleigh_Hoo]

My update today
Last 4 Byes:
TCU
Oklahoma
Colorado
Virginia

Last 4 In:
Mississipp St.
St. Johns
Seton Hall
New Mexico

First Four Out:
Texas A&M
Providence
Pittsburgh
Indiana St.

Next Four Out:
Ohio St.
Kansas St.
Wake Forest
Oregon

Now I will admit the final 6 could be interpreted by people in different order for various reasons. Looks like I might be in the minority right now keeping us out of Dayton. But our Q1/Q2 combined record of 10-9, no bad losses, and good results based metrics (SOR=25, KPI=36) I think means we are in unless like 4+ bid thieves win.

With that said of all the bubble games today, we have the easiest game by NET. So lets just beat State.

[Foresthoo]

Huh? Palm has us in Dayton in this update this am. Had us as a 10 yesterday.

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

[Hoos9412]

@gohoos1130

I really think this could be the year where the bracket comes out and we are like 8-10 teams off the bubble (9 seed or something) because the committee actually valued the acc and our resume.

I think if we win tonight this is a very likely scenario

[Hoos5004]

I think the eye test is part of it, but I think part of the “eye test” is winning games. That part works for and against us. When we’ve lost we lost big, but 23 times we have gone out and gotten it done, and more than a handful against teams in the tournament or on the bubble (including a convincing win against TAMU).

I struggle with some of the love teams are getting that have 18-19 wins. At a point you have to win games. That part of the test hopefully helps us. Beat the Pack tonight! Go Hoos!

[AdventiveQuasar]

@HoosGotYourBack

According to SVP there is a new metric called “the eye test” so apparently they will be checking the vision of our players very closely this weekend–worried about Ryan’s vision as he took over the Kadin Shedrick role of using his face to stave off a defender last night.

I hate Jay Bilas for starting this whole eye test talk as a way to get around the measures we have been told are the criteria being used and still keep us out of the dance.

The “eye test” ends up being just a worse version of quality metrics that are already on team sheets. If you just want to judge teams for selection by team quality, 1) that’s not quite how the selection committee interprets their role, 2) there are better ways to do that than squinting and comparing teams on the limited number of games one’s stupid human brain can hold in memory. Like…how many of the bubble teams have SVP and Bilas watched more than 5 full games of? Probably less than 50%, right?

[Hoos5004]

I think I’d rather be a 10 than a 9 though. But whatever gets us in.

[rushdacote]

I think this is the wrong way to look at it.

@newjerseyhoo

I think we’re safely in, but when you’re this close to the cut line, nothing is assured. A victory tonight should remove any doubt.

This is I think the right way.

@Hoos9412

I think we are confusing things with the ‘need x amount of wins’ talk. Really what we need is to avoid bad losses and not have teams behind us catch us. Really for us it’s about not getting blown out tonight and not having a big East bubble team make the final, New Mexico win the MW, etc. Just don’t get blown out tonight and we should be good

If we win a Q2 and all the other teams win Q1s, we move down relatively. Maybe they pass us, maybe they don’t, but it’s a bad outcome for us.

[uva123]

From his article that talks through his bracket updates: “Thursday’s bubble winners all get a chance on Friday at the kind of win that could seal the deal for them. Virginia is the only exception, needing to win the conference title in order to make the field. The Cavaliers face NC State on Friday after the Wolfpack stunned 2-seed Duke on Thursday.”

[Raleigh_Hoo]

Keep in mind Palm has ranked rather low in the bracket matrix. Over the last 4years he has ranked 142nd out of 174.

[Foresthoo]

Wow, that’s ridiculous.

[uva123]

For sure. But it’s just another example of big media outlet trying to establish that we’re on the outside looking in or should be

[EmbracePaceUVA]

I’m confused because he just had us higher than other brackets.

[rushdacote]

This is what I’ve got for bubble games today, with the Vegas line and my guess where they’ll be on today’s Bracket Matrix update:

Noon Michigan St +7.5 (8th last in) vs Purdue Q1
1 PM Mississippi St +10.5 (6th last in) vs Tennessee Q1
5:30 PM St. John’s +9.5 (4th last in) vs UCONN Q1
6:30 PM Ohio State +4.5 (5th out) vs Illinois Q1
7 PM Texas A&M +5.5 (2nd out) vs Kentucky Q1
7 PM Pitt +7.5 (4th out) vs UNC Q1
8 PM Providence (3rd out) +4.5 vs Marquette Q1
9:30 PM UVA -2.5 (5th last in, but so close 5th to 2nd last in) vs NC State Q2
10:30 PM Colorado -2.5 (2nd last in) vs Wazzu Q1
Midnight New Mexico -2 (1st out) vs Colorado St Q1

Plus root for FAU:

7 PM FAU -5.5 vs North Texas (AAC QF, FAU championship opens up an extra at large)

[dave92]

@rushdacote

If we win a Q2 and all the other teams win Q1s, we move down relatively. Maybe they pass us, maybe they don’t, but it’s a bad outcome for us.

A similar thing applies to the teams who have Q1 opportunities. Every one of those teams is thinking “Win and we’re in,” but if all of those competing bubble teams get Q1 victories (and maybe throw in a couple of bid-stealers), you haven’t gained ground. It’s never only about what you do, it’s what you do relative to your competitors.

[Hoos9412]

Just win baby! Realistically I don’t see anyway they leave out a 24 win, 3rd place power conference regular season, power conference tournament finalist, top 25 SOR, and no Q3 loss team that was presumably ‘in’ entering champ week. Seems to me it would be unprecedented. Granted, winning as many games as we have while getting blown out as often as we have appears to be unprecedented so maybe we would be the team to break history. But we have a ton of things working in our favor

Win tonight and I would be absolutely stunned if we are left out of the field

[Mr.E.Recruit]

Win the ACCT and get an 8 seed.

[newjerseyhoo]

ESPN Bubble Watch says: “UVA looks to be in pretty good shape for a bid.” Eammon Brennan has us as “should be in,” and says: “For as ugly as they can be, they look likely to get in the field, and likely without too much more drama.”

I hope he’s right, because I could do without more drama.

[HoosGotYourBack]

Our brand this year is drama

[dave92]

I want to win the ACCT despite the fact it risks putting us in an 8/9 game lol. Nobody wants to be an 8 or 9.

[hoosincebirth14]

He has us in right now so that makes no sense