In most years, it does. This year has a higher bar. Looks like ~5 âusually good enoughâ teams arenât going to make it. But I hope youâre right.
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On the chance we do get in, the screams will be loud from all corners that we shouldnât. If that does happen, we REALLY need to not have a 65-45 stinker in the 1st round. We might not win, but we need to at least justify it a little bit with a respectable performance.
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whatever this is @Hoos9412
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Lots of deserving teams around the bubble, and the noise will be legitimate from several fan bases. We will have a legit gripe if we donât get in as well.
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It says deserves right on it lol notice he has the play in at the 10 line because the last 4 in teams have better resumes than the bid stealers
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My latest bracket, probably wont change the at-large field:
Last Four In (last team listed is last team in):
TCU
Michigan St.
Texas A&M
St. Johns
First Four Out (First team listed is first team out)
Oklahoma
Virginia
Seton Hall
Pittsburgh
Next Four out:
Indiana St.
Providence
Kansas St.
Wake Forest
At the end of the day I think the last two teams in are the most uncertain. I THINK it comes down to 4 teams with different strengths/weaknesses. Texas A&M, St. Johns, Oklahoma, Virginia. When considering all factors, I think Texas A&M and St. Johns will be the picks. BUT, the last 3 years the BM has missed one team. Depending on what the committee values most this year and how much they factor in conference tournament performance I could see any 2 of these 4 getting those last two spots. I do think TCU/Michigan State are safe. Probably FAU too.
I give our chances 25%. Prepare yourself that we wont get a bid, but there is a chance.
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What makes MSU safe? Thatâs been the toughest to get my head around with the losses and lower resume metric?
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Whatâs funny here is that our quadrant wins/losses line up really closely to Colorado, who is likely safely in
NET of 24 is very good for bubble team, performance metrics average is 47.5 bleh, predictive metric average is 19 very good.
Quad records 3-9 Q1 not great, 6-5 Q2 ok. 9-14 Q1/Q2 not great, Q1/Q2/Q3 15-14. Not great but usually good enough.
Biggest wins are Baylor neutral court, Illinois home.
I just think that overall body is better than the teams below them.
Our resume numbers really pop off the screen.
Some teams are likely to be the 1st to not make the field based on different criteria the last 3 years.
No team in the NET top 35 has missed the field. Indiana State at 29 best chance to do that. St. Johns is 32.
No team in the SOR top 30 has missed the field and only one in the top 35 has every missed the field. UVA 30, Oklahoma 31
No BPI Top 25 has every missed: St. Johns 24.
One reason I flipped St. Johns and Oklahoma is the above stats. Again UVA has a shot. It wouldnt shock me if the last two in are St. Johns and Virginia, and Texas A&M (because no team with 4+ Q3/Q4 losses has ever got an at-large) and Oklahoma are the first two out.
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Hater!
Just kidding, appreciate all your projections and knowledge about the process
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There is zero doubt in my mind the committee wasnât going to take just 3 acc teams. State winning last date was the one thing that killed us(along with about six other things the last two days we would have survived)
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Itâs been a tough few days
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well assuming weâre not making it iâm quite excited for this offseason
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This might be my least favorite thread this forum has ever had
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I got a fever, and the only prescription is more Haslam!
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My hope is that the glaring bad losses and head to head loss to us jumps us with TAMU. OU for me is more complicated. Very similar resumes. Think our ND loss is similar to their UCF loss. Itâs close. Hoping that the committee simply values the ACC enough to make it five and takes it from the Big 12âs current 9 projected in. OU losing in the first game of their tournament and 6 of their last eight, just hoping optics push us over the finish line. That said OU would have a legit gripe. Thanks for the great work!
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Before the madness over the past four days, the ACC teams with life were UNC, Duke, UVa, Pitt, Wake, Clemson, and Syracuse.
Collectively, they were:
2-1 vs Big 10
5-0 vs Big 12
1-2 vs Big East (thanks, Carolina)
2-2 vs PAC-12 (thanks, Duke)
8-7 vs SEC
In games vs safely in or bubble Power 6 teams they were 11-7 (that 7-5 vs the âoutâ teams probably hurts the conference though).
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