Here’s the preseason primer piece where I talk about how the different players fit together within Odom’s systems and offer hopes/PT projections.
I like the point in the Barksdale segment about what Odom’s ideal 4 looks like. He’s flexible enough that it can be hard to tell at times, but I think you’re right with the analysis. Also…didn’t Odom say in some interview that last year’s VCU team was close to his envisioned style of play? Or maybe he just said they were really fun.
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Are you already done with the whole piece???
Yeah, I have heard him say something along the lines of VCU being the closest thing he’s had to his ideal style of play (paraphrased). But this should be the best roster he’s had to execute his vision!
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No I’ve only made it through Barksdale lol but I can’t help but post (gotta get those leaderboard numbers up)
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I was going to say!
I’m imagining a 4-man frontcourt rotation this year that’s pretty simple - two Centers, two PFs… but if we deviate from that at all, I’ll be fascinated to see which direction it goes. I don’t see it right now.
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I just wanted to thank you for this piece and highlight my two favorite parts:
You pointing out that De Ridder “plays with control and violence”
You seem to anticipate fans holding signs that read “ Hoos Thijs guy?!” 
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Excellent work as usual. Thanks!
I’m similarly high on Onyenso and White. I was surprised a little at how high you were on Lewis—particularly on defense, given how extensively you documented his struggles. I hope that you’re right that the coaching, system, and surrounding talent all combine to light the fire in him to give 110 percent 100 percent of the time.
But I also arched an eyebrow when you listed him in your best defensive backcourt instead of Mallory. I think you made the case in this piece that Mallory could be more disruptive, even at much lower usage.
Otherwise, I couldn’t agree more with your analysis and I’m even more excited for tipoff!
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Thanks for the thoughts!
In my original piece on Lewis I highlighted some moments where he was really good defensively. The end of the Ohio game in their tournament, for example, where he was jumping passing lanes, playing aggressive and disruptive ball denial, shutting down the drive, bothering the dribble, looming large over his assignment, etc. His frame, length, and athleticism absolutely makes him one of our three best defensive guards in terms of talent and the ability. He also should just be our most well-suited mark on most SFs, but can guard smaller comfortably, as well. Of course, he has to be consistent (I want to say continuous but I’ll leave that to CTB world). He wasn’t often locked in and he was often caught not being very alert off the ball… I do think the team culture, regular deficit on the scoreboard, and lack of accountability matters, though.
When the game was competitive, especially toward the end, he was locked in… and if that doesn’t translate to any time he’s on the floor for us, I don’t think he’s going to play a ton! Plus, we have more talent around him now so he doesn’t have to save his energy for 30+ mpg - he’s unlikely to go more than mid-20s max. I’m optimistic that being held accountable along with other players setting the standard, along with good rest, will elevate him - but it’s no guarantee. It’s possible that it’s an actual limitation of his to keep his concentration throughout a game on the defensive side, which is why I called it out in my piece on him.
As for Chance… I don’t think he’s often going to be one of our three best defensive guards this year. I do think that he could be, situationally, depending on the matchup. Would he be better than just having Eli and Jacari harassing the ball instead? They’re both quick, disruptive and have much more length to contest shots to boot. Remains to be seen. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some situations where Chance can be even more bothersome on the ball than Jacari - but I don’t think that will just be universally true; and I think Jacari (and Eli) are probably better all-around defenders at this point.
But, yeah, regardless Chance, I think Lewis is still part of our best defensive backcourt assuming he plays up to his potential. He’s like a legit 6’7” mobile guy with fluid movement who has the ability to be incredibly bothersome in passing lanes, very intrusive contests, and can help you secure the glass really well (he’s probably a very good option when Tillis is on the floor). If you’re deciding Chance is the guy you want defending the point, ideally you’re not bumping Lewis at SF to get him in your best defensive lineup; you’re bumping one of the other guards.
To your point, it’s all projection. Maybe Chance, Eli, Jacari does end up being our best defensive lineup this year in actuality… but I don’t think that’s our ideal best defensive lineup or the one with most potential. If that ends up being true, then it probably means Lewis hasn’t been able to make the defensive transition well, which would be bad for the team in totality.
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Mallory’s a very good athlete and I literally bumped into him accidentally before prom last year and he is solid. I always thought of Anthony Gill as being this burly warrior of a dude, and then I ran into him at Harris Teeter. While he was a burly warrior for a hoops player in his UVA days, for a normal person he was a skinny beanpole.
Chance isn’t like that. He isn’t solid for a hoops player, he’s solid for a football DB. And he’s got reasonably fast hands and is wired to be aggressive on the court. On the other hand, he’s like the anti-Kihei. He’s not really jitter-buggy, he knows how tall he is, and… to call a spade a spade, he was perfectly aware his calling card was scoring. He’d coast on D (I heard jokes that Austin, who took pride in his D, was Chance’s defensive caddy) and spend all his energy scoring.
He’s got the tools and attitude to be a disruptive defender, he just didn’t have a lot of call to do it in HS. Well, I’m sure Coach Altizer didn’t tell him to coast on D, just that his incentives to throw 100% of his energy at scoring were overwhelmingly strong. I’m sure he’s working on it hard, but I think it’ll be a while before his defense comes together.
Somewhat along those lines, he’s a fine passer with great court vision who anticipates how stuff develops on the court well. But its worth noting that even his senior year, STAB played someone else at PG surprisingly often and I wonder if it’ll take longer than we expect for him to fully get the hang of being a PG.
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Physically, he sounds like Jontel Evans but with offensive skills.
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Good stuff, and thanks to both of you, @Cuts_from_The_Corner and @ElliottHoo. I’m on a nine-hour flight right now with janky Wi-Fi, so I can’t easily go back through Cuts’ previous pieces.
I’m an unreconstructed optimist by nature, but even conceding that, I believe that there is a very winning vibe surrounding the program right now. And I’m hopeful that both Lewis and Chance are going to step up given the attitude and expectations of their coaches and teammates. I also believe that the presence of professional players on this roster will have an incalculable impact on the culture of this team.
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Always fun to read your comprehensive reports. Maybe you’re trying to be provocative, but penciling in Ugo as a starter? Maybe Ugo was poorly used at Kansas State with only 10 minutes/game, but even looking back at Kentucky, in his second year, he was the 9th man in the rotation in minutes. He was never even close to starters’ minutes at Kentucky or Kansas State. If you watch him play, it’s easy to see why: he’s passive on offense and undisciplined on defense. He’s a good one-trick pony: he’s a physical presence in the paint. I think he’s going to be a very useful role-player like a Jack Salt, but if he’s playing starters’ minutes, Virginia is in trouble.
And 10 minutes per game for Elijah? In the last three years, the poor guy has played a grand total of 150 minutes of competitive basketball. He missed his senior year in high school, played sparingly in his freshman year, and missed his sophomore year. Penciling him in for any minutes is just wishful thinking based on (now ancient) video of his physical talents. And that video shows he’s an exciting slasher who can’t shoot. I think he was 1-15 from deep as a freshman. Even as dynamic as he was, are you really going to play him over Thomas, White, or Lewis? I certainly hope he’s a wonderful story of rebirth, but projecting any minutes for him is fantasy at this point.
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I still haven’t read the whole thing, just bits and pieces, so fwiw:
On Ugo v Grünloh, I take Cuts to mean they’ll basically platoon roughly 50-50 but with Ugo as a starter (making it 51-49). I think it’s essentially a race between Ugo’s offensive development and Grünloh’s adjustment to the college game and defense generally. I’m more inclined to take the Grünloh side and say more like 60-40, but tough to say until we see them both.
On Gertrude, I remain optimistic but not as optimistic as I was a couple months ago. Proving grounds and the lack of recent clips both suggest he’s just not playing much. Proving grounds also suggested that at some point in the summer his stats were still pretty meh, except for steal rate. My bottom line: it’s gonna be a slog. He has played only a very little bit of basketball in the last 3 years. I’m very encouraged to hear he still has explosiveness, but I think it’s probably a slower road back than I thought when he was blocking shots and dunking in the first clips from the summer. But I’ll be thrilled if he’s ahead of schedule!
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Also want to point out that Ugo started all of 3-seed Kentucky’s games from Jan 31 to the end of the season. And averaged 20+ minutes (at least eyeballing it)
Cuts’ piece on Ugo goes into the situation at K state.
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Ugo: Buying low on those who have escaped Jerome Tang has worked fairly well recently for a variety of programs.
Gertrude: The upside for his minutes is that he can do something different from everyone else with his transition potential. Joe Bamisile was a huge chunk of VCU’s transition offense, so that should be the model for Eli.
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Also Odom plays his backup center a lot generally. Fermin has not been an impactful offensive player ever but he can block shots and finish easy stuff at the rim, so he got 40-50% of the minutes at VCU for each of the last two seasons.
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True… but false. He did start the last 14 games for Kentucky in 2023/24 because Kentucky was trying to right the ship – that team was considered one of the worst defensive teams in the KenPom era. But Kentucky went 8-6 in the games he started. The end of that season, including their first round flameout loss to 14 seed Oakland in the NCAAs, was considered a disaster. And Ugo was not very good in those 14 games. Well, he had a couple halfway-decent games, but otherwise he was underwhelming. He was nearly useless offensively. He’s a really good physical defensive shot blocker, but that’s it.
I think you guys have really high expectations that don’t match Ugo’s reality. I like him and I expect him to play a lot, but I see him as a shot blocking role-player who can defend the paint. I think his floor is 10 minutes/game, but his ceiling is probably less than 20. I don’t see him anywhere near 50/50 with Grünloh if Odom wants to play fast.
Was only addressing whether he has ever played starter’s minutes — he has.
Joe’s a good comp from an athleticism standpoint, but Joe also shot something like 35% from deep, right? If Eli can do that, then you guys may be right. But that’s a big if.
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Bamisile was 32% last season, career 34% guy. The uncertainty band around Eli’s shooting should be large - just doesn’t have very many attempts. But Odom isn’t shy about green lighting even mediocre 3pt shooters.
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