Well, no. He hasn’t. That’s why I used the term “starters’ minutes” instead of “started a game.” He has started games, including a few for Kansas State. But he averaged 7 minutes per game in his first season, 19 in his second, and 11 in his third. Not starters’ minutes. The average starting college center plays 20-25 minutes and Ugo has never been close to that.
I’m not a hater. I like him and he’s going to play an important role this season. But I think his limitations are obvious.
I think Haney and AQ cover most of this pretty well here but, no, not trying to be provocative. I do want to challenge the general conception that Ugo is more of a throwaway/10mpg type reserve who won’t play much and whose game/involvement will look like it did at KSU.
Ugo and Grünloh will likely play about half of the game each either way. I think we’re going to be happy to have him in the game because he’s going to fortify the back end. He’s not going to be an offensive focus - but he’ll play the dunker/screener role well in the offense while potentially just being our most important defender given where his strengths are and how Odom schemes his defense. His shot blocking rate at Kentucky was the best in their storied program’s history. He’s strong and bothersome back there and holds up well to some of the most physical Centers in the game where Grünloh plays weaker and isn’t as consistent.
I do think having the best defender back there will be the most valuable thing considering I believe we’ll be very effective scoring the ball whether or not Grünloh is on the floor. We run so much both are going to play a ton. If Grünloh ends up playing more, it’s probably because he’s been very good defensively - and I’m here for that. But my expectation is that Ugo’s defense will remain a cut above and that his offensive ability as simply an open finisher and big presence to account for won’t be a liability. Keep in mind the staff have been vocal about how he’s a much better offensive player than they anticipated when they brought him in. That doesn’t mean he’ll be getting you post up buckets, but I do think it means he’ll be like a souped up version of Fermin/Bam last year. Anything in the range of 17-23 mins for each seems reasonable (23 may be a big ask from an endurance standpoint though).
As for Eli - it will all depend on his health. If his knee isn’t a continued issue re: needed rest throughout the season, to answer your question - yes, I would play him over those guys (for a change of pace pop of energy in most cases) both because Odom’s system requires a much deeper bench AND because he does offer things at a level that the others don’t. Specifically, defense, transition basketball, slashing, and offensive rebounding. He’s a much better systemic fit for Odom than he was for Bennett and stylistically. 10MPG from a motor guy like that isn’t going to limit your offense even if he’s a non-shooter - but I don’t expect that will be true.
He’s the biggest wild card. If he can’t go, then I still think you’re going to see another guard in the rotation (likely Carrere). But there’s absolutely a clear role for him.
And I’m projecting 21 - not a big leap. I don’t think his limitations are as stark as has been stated (unless you’re expecting someone who is going to go get you a bucket themselves) and I think Ugo’s strengths are the things that are most important to what Odom is looking for in his centers.
So 19 is not close to 20-25? I’m not sure what we are disagreeing on here… and to be clear I was focused on the last 1.5 months of the season. When he literally started and also played 20-25 minutes per game, which is your own standard.
I don’t think Odom values defense as highly as you do. He wants to score points. The “most valuable thing” to Odom is putting the ball in the basket, not having the best defender back there. I think if you put together Virginia’s best defensive lineup from this roster, you’d have Ugo and Chance and maybe Elijah out there, but you’d have guys like De Ridder on the bench. Odom’s not making that trade.
“I believe we’ll be very effective scoring the ball whether or not Grünloh is on the floor.”
I think this is the most telling thing: you’re underestimating Grünloh’s offensive potential while overestimating Ugo’s defensive potential.
But time will tell if you’re right.
Just to focus on Ugo again for a moment - I believe the staff when they say they’re surprised with his offense and with how much they’ve been talking him up this offseason because I’ve seen the flashes on film. He is an effortless finisher at the rim when someone else creates the opening for him. Great lob threat. Has pretty nice touch. Has more fluidity in his movement than you’d expect. Runs the floor well. FT looked a lot nicer at KSU.
I don’t buy that he’s going to start taking a ton of jumpers or that you’re going to be able to kick it into him for an effective drop step - but I also don’t think you’re going to have to. I do dismiss the notion that the offense is going to stagnate playing 4-around-1 with our shooters/creators in this offense.
VCU did it last year with 4 way worse shooters and their Centers were more limited.
C’mon man. Ugo is a three-points-per-game scorer over a three year career. That’s not a small sample size. Jack Salt averaged more points per game than Ugo.
Last year VCU had the opportunity to play a better offensive team than they did. They chose to play a true Center for almost a full game despite having Jack Clark who could have gone smaller and provided them a stretch-5. In my assessment, Odom treats his Center differently than any other position on the roster and most values their ability to play center field. The good news about Grünloh is that he also has the potential to do that if he can prove to be consistent/strong enough/reliable enough. I watched a lot of Grünloh and thought he showed some amazing defensive flashes - but the consistency wasn’t always there and there were times where the opposition was scoring with ease on the interior.
My point re: we’ll score plenty with or without Grünloh isn’t a slight on his abilities - it’s that I believe our offense will still be very good regardless. Odom’s offenses are often very good without an offensive-minded Center. His systems are designed primarily for the Center to screen, dive, and crash the board. There are more things he can do with a shooting Center, but not having one doesn’t bog things down; especially when you have such a talented diversity of scorers 1-4.
It’s all an assessment of what the team will need more; and I believe we’ll need the defensive pop more than the offensive one, generally speaking, and that Ugo plays the position that can most positively affect the greatest number of possessions and can’t be schemed around as much.
Ah, nice. A fun pedantic argument I can jump into!
Over the final 14 games of his 2nd year at Kentucky, he averaged a little over 21mpg/4ppg/5rpg. They played 33 games that year, so 14 is over 40% of the full season (including post-season), and those stats are entirely in-line with what UVA’s starters at center have done in recent years.
I think the real point is that a lot of teams get fewer minutes and productivity out of their starters than I might have guessed.
Right. Maybe he only scores 3ppg (I imagine he’d score more at 21mpg) - but he shot 70% from the floor last year and 77% from the FT line (small sample). We’re not going to need him to score a ton - we’re going to need him to be efficient with his opportunities - finish what’s created for him, and not bog everyone else down - which I don’t believe he will given how successful Odom’s offenses have been with similar player profiles at Center.
That’s what I mean by impressed with his offense - he has the ability to finish what’s created for him… and that’s all he needs to do on this roster if his defense is what he’s shown it can be.
Also want to add that, until I see these guys play some, my best guess is Ugo about 15-20 and Grünloh about 20-25.
So if you are roughly 10-18 or so, we are not far off! And you’re not that far off from Cuts prediction of 20-25.
And the stretch run for KY is relevant IMO because it shows that 20-25 is well within the realm of possibility.
Jack Salt also averaged 15.4mpg during his career while Ugo has averaged 8.8. So, if Salt’s average wasn’t 1.75 Ugo’s, then he’s actually scoring less/minute. He also turned the ball over more than Ugo.
Look, lets say they’re in the same ballpark offensively. Salt did not prevent CTB from fielding offenses that were mostly much better than anyone’s expectations for this season. So, Ugo’ll probably be worse than Grünloh offensively, but basketball offenses are complicated with lots of moving parts that interact in a variety of ways, so it’ll be hard to say with confidence that the difference will end up being huge.
I guess at the most stripped down level my hypothesis is just that the team’s defensive efficiency will improve more when Ugo is in the game than its offensive efficiency will drop off when the same is true…
And my confidence level on that is all of 2 minutes per game 
The key takeaway is that I think both are going to be good, will be used for similar but different things, and that both are going to have significant and important roles rather than either serving as more of a backup situation (like I believe Tillis will/should for TDR).
There are so many unknowns about this team, at this time. For me, one of the big unknowns is how quickly can Grünloh adapt to play in the ACC. I think that there is every reason for optimism, but it isn’t a certainty that he will be ready from day one. For that reason, I am very glad that Onyenso is on the team. He is experienced at a high major level. He doesn’t need to be a Tim Duncan. His presence will allow Grünloh to proceed at his own pace. It is my long held belief that a team needs three scoring threats to keep opponents honest on defense. If past performances are any indication, Virginia should be able to put three threats on the floor rather easily, and in multiple combinations. Any scoring from Onyenso would be pure gravy, and I think we have to believe that his ability to defend the paint has been established.
I think it’s also worth saying that if any Center does get like 25MPG + at the position it will be Grünloh and that would probably be an ideal situation where he’s holding up to the conditioning and knocking it out of the park on defense. That’s like our absolute ceiling situation.
I’m just not expecting all of that at once (the ability to play so many minutes without fatigue in this style probably being the biggest barrier to entry).
It’s a bigger difference than you think. Last season, Anthony Robinson and TJ Power averaged about 10 minutes per game and Jacob Cofie and Blake Buchanan about 20. Do you think they were comparable in playing time? 10 minutes makes you the 9th or 10th guy off the bench. 25 minutes per game – especially for a center – makes you not just a starter but top 3-4 in minutes played. That’s simply not happening for Ugo.
Personally, I’m expecting 10-15 minutes from Ugo and anything else will be a happy surprise. With the way this team is constructed, I think the opportunity is there for him, but it’s as a shot blocking specialist off the bench, not a starting center. And it’s certainly not based on his offensive contributions. But we may see a bigger role for him early in the season – and situationally against opponents with some muscle in the paint – just because of his experience and physicality while Grünloh gets acclimated.
Again, I’m not a Ugo hater. But after three years of play, the film doesn’t lie. There’s a reason he was ranked the 43rd-best transfer center in the portal. I’m all for optimism, but we’re getting into delusional territory with 25 minutes per game for Ugo.
And, I would like to add another thought. Again, it is an unknown. However, as important as scoring might be, if not more so, which of the two centers is the better defensive rebounder, and which can get the ball out the quickest? One of my assumptions is that to play an uptempo style, control of the defensive board by the front court is essential. There won’t be the same help from the back court to which we have become accustomed. Again, it is another unknown, and we will have to wait to see.
Jack Salt wasn’t the rim protector Ugo is. That’s his valuable trait
Ignoring everything else, I think you’re underestimating how exhausting it is for a 7’0” to sprint up and down the floor as much as Odom demands in his teams that run the most (which this one should be). Both years at VCU, the most a Center played was 21.4 mpg.
Even if we assume that Grünloh gets the start - I doubt it’s going to be much different in time share than just having the 2-3 minutes go his way.
Aren’t you the same guy who is predicting 20-25 minutes for Ugo? If it’s exhausting for Odom’s centers to run the floor for 21 minutes, why do you think Ugo will do more than that? It’s nuts, man.
But Odom actually played a big for 29 minutes per game at VCU last year. Jack Clark is a skinny 6’10” big man who could rebound and stretch the floor on offense. He could step out and shoot threes at 35%. Who does that sound like to you: Ugo… or Grünloh?
I think you’re pushing a bad position here. You’re staking your reputation on a wild longshot: Ugo averaging 20-25 minutes per game. It’s just not going to happen.
Weird hill to die on, man.