I’m not bashing you. It’s nice to have someone do some in depth pieces on Virginia basketball. It’s just that in this situation – projecting 21 minutes per game for Ugo as our starting center – is so obviously contradicted by every piece of evidence that it calls your judgment into question. If you look at Odom’s rotations, playing style, and roles, and then consider the totality of Ugo’s career, you don’t see any evidence for Odom starting a true center who is extremely limited offensively and playing him 21 minutes per game. It’s a bad fit. Ugo is a long-legged seven footer who can run the floor, but hauling his 250 pound frame up and down the floor for 21 minutes per game at Odom’s pace? “I fell in love with the fast game,” Odom said in his introductory press conference. “You can see that at all my different stops.” Instead, it’s glaringly obvious that Ugo will have a big, important role as a defensive stopper, but as a rotational and situational piece, not a starter. And that Grünloh’s skill set is a much better fit despite obviously being the weaker defender.
Your comment that “I do think having the best defender back there will be the most valuable thing” to Odom is a total misread of Odom’s style. Odom has proven, over and over, that he will trade defense for offense. That’s not to say that Ugo won’t play an important role. Odom likes to anchor his defense with a shot blocker and then have his wings play aggressive help defense to try to force turnovers and start the fast break. Ugo can do that, and I expect we’ll see it early as Grünloh get acclimated. But Ugo can’t do it for 21 minutes per game. And Odom gives up a lot on the offensive end of the floor to get it. You know Odom is drooling over the pairing of Grünloh and Hall – if those two can execute together, it puts so much pressure on the defense that you’re going to have lots of room for Thomas, De Ridder, and White to feast.
To me, the best case scenario is that Grünloh develops quickly and plays 20+ minutes. Maybe a lot more. Remember, Grünloh has been averaging well over 20 minutes per game for Rasta for the last two years – in the last 95 games Grünloh has played, he’s averaged 23 minutes per game. In the last 64 games Ugo has played, he’s averaged 11. Grünloh has a lot to prove at this level, but Odom is obviously betting on him. If, by February, you’re right and Ugo plays more than Grünloh, it’s probably a very bad sign for the team.
You see Grünloh and Ugo averaging about the same minutes, with the edge to Ugo. But their games are radically different, and Grünloh fits what Odom wants to do. And the only evidence you have to the contrary is a happy-speak coach’s quote about Ugo’s offense in practice.
There’s always a danger, as a writer, that you fall in love with your own conclusions and can be blind to what the evidence actually says. Again, I’m not bashing you, just your wild projection about Ugo’s playing time that is not backed by any evidence. The great thing you do is you provide evidence – you show the tape, you break down the film. In this case, there is simply no evidence supporting the idea that Ugo is going to play 21 minutes as Odom’s starting center. And there is plenty of evidence to the contrary.