Tracking A Transfer: Malik Thomas
The longest piece (by like 2,000 words) in the history of the site which, if you’re a reader (thank you), you know is saying something!
Please excuse some typos and running out of steam on editing - wanted to get it out
Just watching the self creation so far, and you’re right: he’s playing at the verge of out of control, but somehow harnessing it enough. Not a quick twitch guy / not explosive, but he’s very savvy and skilled.
And playing right at the verge of out of control lets him draw plenty of fouls (one pet peeve I had of some latter day Bennett offenses is that they didn’t really like to push the issue at all…)
One of the core questions I have going into this year is which one of these guys will struggle keeping their confidence up when their role changes, they aren’t the go to anymore, their minutes are a bit less, etc.
For Thomas the confidence seems to be a core feature of his success. The intention and decisiveness he plays with makes him so good and I could see him really faltering if he loses it - given how much he does play on the verge of out of control.
I doubt Thomas will be the guy whose role shifts in ways that hurt his confidence. Seems like a lock.
Who do we think is most at risk of this?
Yeah - he’s not “athletic” in the traditional quick-twitch sense where that’s an advantage. For example, he was clearly a step slower than Calmese at Washington State and he wasn’t blowing by guys in the open floor - but he’s not slow either and there are a ton of instances where he just flat gets fully around guys because of how good he is and he surprises them with his willingness to try it and his skill to do it.
No shade to Ty Jerome - but he was on the slower side so when we talked about “savvy” and “skill” with him, it usually meant shot making, body control, and length for a PG. He’d finish awkwardly around the hoop, that floater suite, that ability to gain a very small advantage, put a guy on his hip and lean away and still make a bucket.
That’s not Thomas. I mean, he will hit a floater and is good at making difficult shots, and he is crafty, but he has more success just straight up beating guys badly at times because of his handle, and strength which is backed up by “fine” quickness.
Probably Lewis. Maybe Jacari, just because he doesn’t have the reps at this competition level
I don’t get the sense Thomas is ever at risk of losing confidence. I mean, I’m sure there’s a breaking point for everyone, but he pushed it pretty far that I saw and I never saw him stumble across it. He’s just one of those dudes who knows he has it.
My guess for this would be Devin Tillis. He’ll be coming off of the bench after heavy minutes and he’s used to the ball being in his hands a bunch on offense - I don’t think it will be nearly as much. He won’t be asked to play like he did as much - he’ll probably be more of just a shooter and connector here who occasionally goes to work on a mismatch. I could see that taking him out of rhythm some.
I think Tillis is the one whose role seems like it will change the most. But in order for him to play his new role effectively, to the extent I’m accurately pegging it, I don’t think he will need an abundance of confidence, if that makes sense.
If anything, he will need more deference.
Lewis’ best case scenario for us and probably for him, is if he can become more of a long, disruptive, wing defender, to go along with his offense. But a more baseline good outcome would be if he’s something like a microwave scorer off the bench. I think that can be a tough role for anyone, especially someone who is used to more minutes, and it seems like you need a lot of confidence to do it well.
Just spitballing, though, given that I don’t really have much of an idea of what these guys are gonna look like together, and I’m only starting to understand their individual attributes
That’s fair - Lewis was my second pick for this.
I’m also on record saying that I think Tillis’s game will translate least effectively at this level, though, which could also pose confidence issues.
Odds are more than one of Lewis, Tillis, Jacari, and Thomas can’t make the jump, but the thing I keep coming back to on Thomas is his ability to get to the line. Athleticism is a big part of that obviously, and he will be taking a big step up in the athleticism of the defenders on him, but it is also a lot of skill and savvy that I think projects well for him.
I also liked the stuff in Cuts’ piece about him being a solid playmaker (apologies Cuts I haven’t actually gotten through the full piece yet 
). That should translate reasonably as well if Odom can get him out of some of the tunnel vision. If he is an above average playmaker with the shooters we have around him, we could be really good. A lineup with him running point for a bit next to Jacari-Lewis-De Ridder-Grünloh could be pretty deadly on offense. No one you could leave alone behind the arc and a couple of guys that can stir the drink out there as well.
In an ideal world if someone has to underperform it would be Tillis and Lewis because they have the projected smallest roles and best players we can use to replace their minutes.
The flip side of confidence and performance potentially diminishing in smaller roles is that as usage rate goes down, you theoretically see increases in efficiency. So even if Jacari struggles a bit to be dominant, I would think his %'s might see a bit of an increase from better looks not being the focal point.
I think Lewis has the toughest transition, as microwave bench scorer is a hard role to take on and he has a big jump up in level. Jacari is my next pick, mainly given the change in competitive levels (although I suspect he transitions well to it by midseason). And I think Tillis will be fine as a bench glue guy - which is to say I have low expectations (7th or 8th man) and think he can meet those.
Hall and Thomas I think will both translate fairly smoothly given their high level experience. Same with the Euros.
My question is: what happened with Malik at USC in his first two years? If it was just a matter of building up confidence or being a right fit with the team’s style of play, then I’m not too concerned. But if it involved personality issues (especially being a very vocal guy), I’d be more concerned.
This was my thought, too. Lewis’s role will change the most in ways that can impact confidence, even though Tillis’s role may change the most overall. Plus, what Lewis will be required to do is one thing really well (catch and shoot), whereas Tillis can offer a few different things depending on need, not all of which require a ton of confidence.
I don’t think this is true of Lewis, though (that he’ll only be asked to catch and shoot). He’ll definitely be asked to do that a lot; but they’ll also leverage him as a slasher.
Not someone who plays in isolation - they’ll look at Hall or Malik or Jacari there, but someone who will curl around a screen and get downhill with momentum. Lewis is an athletic dude and is solid in the midrange too, he just doesn’t thrive at driving from a standstill.
He’s also really good in transition as a ball handler and finisher.
I expect they’ll use Lewis in more ways than they use Tillis this year; because I just don’t think playing out of the mid-post is where they’re going to want to be as often as getting their guards going downhill (and because Lewis should translate better athletically).
One of Jacari of Sam Lewis as the third guard. I think Odom is going to ride with Hall and Thomas a lot and rely on trusting them in this bridge year.
Just saw @haney and @Hoosnick beat me to the punch. Also have we talked a lot about Jacari playing in the Summit League?
My big hope for Jacari is defense. Summit all-defense team but poor metrics on a bad defensive team, which one of those is real?
My biggest concern is perimeter defense, so I really hope he can be a 3-and-D guy who takes tough defensive assignments and spaces the floor. If he can do that I feel alright, I don’t need him to be a super dynamic scorer otherwise.
I think there’s some sleeping on Jacari happening. He is a very good scorer - especially shooting off of the dribble. And, while he’s not as strong - he’s a much better athlete than Thomas - faster, quicker, jumps higher.
He’s got a nice handle, great footwork and good body control and was actually a marginally better outside shooter than Thomas as well - and also got into a lot of those shots on the move. Those three guards (Hall, White, Thomas) will almost certainly all be called on to initiate offense and to be conversion points… almost interchangeably (leaning more on Hall to create).
White should be the best defender of the three - but I wouldn’t put him in that box. He’s neither shut down enough on defense nor one-dimensional enough on offense for the “3 and D” classification.
This is why I think both Lewis and Gertrude have an opportunity to carve out bigger roles than I’d thought, though.
*There’s actually kind of a crazy amount of similarity in White and Thomas’s games in how they play offensively and their splits (FG%, 3pt %, FT%) are almost identical - White is a better defender, though, and Thomas better at getting to the line.
Just finished this. Thanks! Great work, as always.
Will write more later if I have some time, but I don’t think I’m that optimistic on Thomas’s defense. I think he’s limited by his physical tools. I do agree that a reasonable case upside is Odom being able to better harness his aggression. I think it’s more likely that Lewis hits his defensive upside, because there’s a clearer path. Lewis’s issue seemed to be less physical than mental and playing for a coach who didn’t seem to stress defense
And I’ll look forward to whatever you do on the international bigs
Thanks and I actually agree - I’m down on his defense more than any guard. I don’t think it’s all physical though - I think it’s also impatience within a non-attacking scheme.
I think you may have mentioned this before, but I do wonder who’s going to cover the jitter bug/quick guard on the other team. If we park White on the biggest scoring threat 1-3 (and of course it may be the same guy most times) who plays the quick pg? Not Hall, guessing we park him on the weakest guard? This where Gertrude gets a lot of run? Some situational defensive run for Chance?
I still think Lewis is being undervalued internally and externally. He’s one of the more talented players on the team. If his role is diminished I bet it’s because they other guys just end up being really, really good. I like Nick Kalinowski a lot but I think his take on Lewis lacks nuance. He basically thinks he’ll be terrible.