6-6 Last week
@HoozGotNext Locke of the Week: 5-3
So last week happened. It was a scramble to get to .500. A few late night Hail Mary picks got me back to .500 after a terrible start. But we are afloat and here for another run at it. Time to make some picks and make some money. I need to pay for all those Miller Lite’s I drank at Bobby Dodd last night.
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech over 64.5
Last week one of the more enjoyable games I watched all season (I missed most of Bama and Tennessee) was WVU and Baylor. The type of high scoring cluster f&ck I love the Big 12 for. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave us a thriller in the heat against Texas and lost their next two games. However, they are averaging 30 ppg on the season and facing a WVU team that has given up 757 yards and 7 TD’s in the last two weeks. Settling in with a Shiner and enjoy the show.
Clemson -14 vs. Syracuse:
I don’t have any real analysis here. The stats say the line is too big. My gut agrees with it. But I do know that Clemson is 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) as a double-digit favorite against AP Top 15 opponents since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. What’s that mean for Saturday? No clue. I’m just hellbent on proving that Syracuse is not a good team. Last week they escaped after NC States QB went down, the Houdini’d Virginia and Purdue for wins. I’m not impressed by this club and will continue to fade them until proven right.
UCLA vs. Oregon Under 70
Both teams average 41 ppg, common sense tells you this should be an easy over. But I don’t buy that. Both teams are coming off a bye week and the defenses should be healthy and well prepared. With a total that high and two good teams both offenses have to be almost flawless, and I just think someone will blink and let me sweat it out to get the under.
Purdue +2.5 vs. Wisconsin
The Boilermakers have a chance to drive 100 miles down 65 and play in Indy for the B1G championship this year… that’s something rarely said this late into the season. Before they book their rooms in Indy Purdue has to go to Madison to take on a slowly waking Badgers team. Three weeks ago I was happy to leave Wisconsin for dead, but they have shown some life since firing their HC. History shows Wisconsin winning 15 in a row against Purdue. Which means the time is right to break the streak.
Tulane -7 vs. Memphis:
Who’s ready for some Group of 5 action? Tulane is so under the radar this year it’s funny. 6-1 and if the expanded playoff started today the Big Green Wave would be in baby!! These two match up well on the field and I’m tempted to take the over as well here, but I’ll shy away. Tulane is 6-1 ATS this season, the second best cover percentage in FBS. They are 4-1 ATS as a favorite.
Houston -3 vs. Navy
Houston is a strange group this season, I feel like none of their games go to plan. Everyone knows Navy’s gameplan triple option control the ball choke the clock. The problem is their defense is bad, especially against the pass giving up 274 ypg. When a team only needs a minute to score ball control goes out the window especially if you can’t score and keep up.
Oklahoma State +6 vs. Texas
Oklahoma State has been a surprise for me this season, I lost track of them in the Big 12 shuffle during the pre-season and who knows the Big 12 may be them and Texas Tech by next year this time. The Cowboys are coming off a crushing OT loss to TCU last week and need to refocus quickly to keep up with a Longhorns group that found their groove after blowing out Oklahoma. The line flung wildly it opened with OSU a 2.5 favorite and at one point they were a 6.5 dog. I think being at home the Cowboys are closer to that 2.5 fav than the 6.5 dog.
Oklahoma State +6.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Under 65
Add LSU to the list of teams that have screwed me this season. I don’t want to buy in on them. This line started at 68 and is coming down quickly, I wouldn’t touch it if the line drops even a half point from here, but I’m confident in where it’s at currently. LSU has gone under the total in four of their last five games. Also how often do you get to watch a game and Lane Kifin is the most likeable coach on the field?