Last Week 7-5
62-46-2 Overall
It’s Conference Championship week! Time to get excited. Some years this is my favorite week of the season with the potential intrigue and the stakes, and then there’s years like this one and it’s a formality. Thankfully we have gambling that can make anything more interesting.
LSU vs. UGA -17.5 Over 52
This one is a bit touchy but I can’t stay away from it. It looks like LSU QB Jayden Daniel will play, but he’s not 100% with a sore ankle. Any QB not 100% would be a concern facing UGA’s defense, but one that also relies on his legs to make him the threat he is is extremely concerning. There’s a chance Daniels can gut it out, and to be honest the turnaround this LSU team has pulled off since early Oct is amazing. It’s also enough to let me take the Over 52. I expect the Dogs to roll and Stetson Bennet to look for a legacy defining moment in his back yard, but if it is a close game I don’t think it will be a slug fest.
UGA -17.5 Over 52
USC vs. Utah Over 67
I kind of love how the PAC 12 moved their championship game to Friday night and give themselves a chance to stand apart. It also is fun because generally this game provides the most drama from the P5 championships. The Utes handed USC their only loss of the season earlier this year. Caleb Williams for the Trojans seems to be on a mission to continue Lincoln Riley’s trend of developing Heisman winning QBs and I’m leery to bet against the red hot QB. The line is very narrow at 2.5 and I’m staying away from it. But the last time these two teams got together it was a shootout and I expect lots of points to be scored again.
Over 67
Kansas State +1.5 vs. TCU
Finally some drama on championship Saturday. TCU has no room for error if they want to make the CFP. All that stands between them and the promised land is a rematch with the KSU team that was up 28-0 at the half the first time they met before the Horned Frogs roared back. That was just one of the miracle finishes TCU pulled off this season. For this one, I just think the luck runs out for TCU who has played in so many tight games and at some point they have to feel the pressure of the CFP looming.
Kansas State +1.5
Tulane -3.5 vs. UCF
A conference championship game in New Orleans and it involves Tulane? We live in strange times. Tulane vanquished the boogey man last week by knocking off Cincinnati and they are honesty one of the hottest teams in the country. UCF handed the Green Wave a loss last time they made the trip to Nola earlier this season and will be confident they can do it again. I think this is a tough match up and it will be close in the fourth. 3.5 is about the limit of how big a spread I’d take here.
Tulane -3.5
Michigan -16.5 vs. Purdue
The B1G West replaced the ACC Coastal for a season and Purdue somehow bubbled to the top and won the division. I doubt many had that on their bingo card back in September. The Boilermakers are going to be overmatched all over the field on Saturday. In theory they should have some homefield advantage since the game will be played about 100 miles south of their campus, but we all know Big Blue nation is going to show up and show out and will make Indy their home for the weekend. The Wolverines have come alive on offense and riding all the momentum from their show out performance in the Shoe last week.
Michigan -16.5
