Last week 4-5
Overall 68-54-2
Much like and because of the Hoos, I ended the 2023 regular season with a whimper. 4-5 last week was not what I expected but alas we move on. Now we enter the college football post season and from an entertainment standpoint many of these games don’t need any extra juice, and from a gamblers perspective there are plenty of extra wrinkles at stake. Interestingly enough while the playoff does not expand to 12 teams until next season, we are getting a mini-expansion with two quarterfinals at stake.
Oregon vs. Washington Over 65.5
The final Pac 12 Championship game serves as a play in for the CFP when Oregon and Washington match up in a rematch of their thrilling game from earlier this season. The Huskies emerged from that thriller victorious back in October, but since then the two teams have gone in slightly different directions. Since the loss the Ducks have outscored their opponents 252-96, meanwhile Washington has won their last eight games by 10 points or less. Watching the Huskies for the last month it feels like every week they are one play away from disaster. There are rumors that Michael Penix Jr. is injured and giving him the eye test I think he may be banged up. On the field the Oregon offense and Box Nix get all the hype but the Ducks defense has been great this season giving up just under 16 points a game. The line for this one is interesting, it opened at Oregon -7.5 and has grown to -10. My instincts tell me the Oregon love has reached a tipping point and given Washington’s habit of playing in thrillers I could see them backdooring. I’m choosing to stay away from it and settling on the total.
Over 65.5
Texas -14.5 vs. Oklahoma St. Over 55
The Longhorns have an outside opportunity to make the College Football Playoff but they need to win and they need style points. Enter a Oklahoma State team that is all over the map, and carrying all of the Big 12’s pride on their backs. Given the task at hand for the Longhorns I think they can speed up a Cowboys team that has a shaky secondary. Oklahoma State has a solid rushing attack but it could be considered hit or miss with a rushing success rate that ranks 73d. That’s going to be tough against a Texas rush defense that can control the line of scrimmage. I like the over as a way to cover yourself. The feels like a throwback to the BCS days with style points being the core objective. The line has grown -10 when it opened and currently floating between 14-15, as the money comes in to support Texas but I still like it at this point.
Texas -14.5 Over 55
Alabama +5.5 Georgia Under 54.5
Two old friends meet once again with the SEC Championship on the line. UGA may be on the quietest 20+ game win streak / 2 time national champion I’ve ever seen. In recent memory of college football dynasties I think USC in the aughts, Bama in the late aughts/teens and Clemson. All three of those programs dominated headlines and media coverage during their reign. Yet, most would struggle to name UGA’s starting QB or any combination of 3 players. It’s pretty wild in today’s world to have a team as dominant as they are fly under the radar. The knock on the Dawgs has been their defense is not what it was, but they are giving up 15 ppg. that’s pretty good. The offense is considered labored but they are averaging 37ppg. So where’s the love? Saturday the Crimson Tide come to Atlanta and here’s a stat for you, Saban is 10-1 in SEC Championship games he’s also riding a 16 game wining streak in Atlanta. These two historically play tight games and Saturday will no be no different. Both teams look to run the ball first and they will control the clock. UGa hasn’t played a defense quite like Bama’s and the same can be said for Bama.
Bama +5.5 Under 54.5
Florida St -1.5 vs. Louisville
The question for this game is can the 'Noles win and do it in a fashion that impresses the committee enough to remain in the CFP? I won’t claim to know the answer to the second question, but for the first questions yes, I think FSU wins this game. Despite being favored Florida State feels like an underdog coming into this game. Once Jordan Travis went down the entire sporting world wrote them off. However, I see an FSU team with NFL level talent littered in their receiving core. A solid offensive line and a front 7 on defense loaded with pro-level talent.
Florida St. -1.5
Michigan vs. Iowa Under 34.5
Keep the streak alive, the drive for 6 consecutive unders in Iowa bets is on! In many ways this game feels like a coronation ceremony for the Wolverines. The B1G championship was won last week in the Big House when Michigan survived Ohio State. The last time Iowa faced a team close to Michigan’s caliber the were blown out 31-0 by Penn State. We all know the Hawkeyes woes on offense, 128th in points per drive. The Michigan defense is suffocating and has stifled high powered opponents, the consistent pressure will overwhelm the Iowa offense. As I said last week, Michigan has the offense that Iowa dreams about. The Wolverines will run the ball 60 times on Saturday and absolutely choke the life out of the clock and the game.
Under 34.5
SMU +3.5 vs. Tulane Over 47
I’m jumping back in with the Mustangs here. The SMU offense is something to behold they score at will and average 41 ppg. The Tulane Green Wave put together a great season playing consistent football. Their only loss was early in the year to OIe Miss. This one feels like a shoot out in the making but in the end, I don’t think the Green Wave can keep up.
SMU 3.5 Over 47
