Last Week 5-2
Overall : 44-36-2
Last week I got back into my winning ways and thank the football Gods for that. I got houses to build and bags to drop can’t afford going on a two-week skid and ruining what’s been a lucrative season. We are heading down the home stretch of the season. With the exception of a few one-offs, we are locked into conference schedules and rivalries. This means the lines are getting tight.
Texas State +6. vs. Troy
Last time I was all in on a Troy game I got burnt. So, call this an attempt at retribution. Texas State is on the verge of bowl eligibility, and they feature a potent offense that’s dropping 38.3 ppg. They are going to test a very stout Troy defense all day. I’m very tempted to jump on the money line here, but I honestly don’t know enough about Texas State to go all in, but I do think they will be the toughest test Troy has seen in a month and will keep this game tight.
Texas State +6.5
Colorado vs. UCLA Over 61.5
It’s been a while since I’ve talked about Colorado but they are back involved in a Dragon Pick. I still don’t think this is a good team or a good culture. But I do think they have a skilled offense that typically gets points on the board. More importantly their defense is flat out terrible. Enter Chip Kelly and the Bruins. I think they are going to have to do a bunch of the lifting to reach the over, but UCLA is up for the challenge and the Buffs do just enough to hold up their end of the deal.
Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss Over 63
This pick is purely based on Lane Kiffin and his ego. Throughout the season, the Rebels have shown if given the chance they will run up the score. Currently averaging 40 points per game. I believe they have no problem doing their part to reach this big over.
Oregon vs. Utah +6.5 Under 47.5
Utah has been an interesting case this season. They’ve used three quarterbacks and at one point had a safety playing running back and still managed to pick up the win. Coach Wittingham has done a phenomenal job keeping the Utes rolling through an injury plagued season. Historically Utah has given Oregon fits including knocking them off twice last year. I think Oregon is the better team this year, but history tells me this one is going to be a struggle. Looking at the trends the line opened at 49 and I’ve seen it as low as 47. The smart money is hammering this one down and I think 47.5 is still a safe spot to get in.
Oregon State -3 vs. Arizona
This one is my head scratcher of the week. Oregon State is ranked 11th in the nation. They are one of 10 teams with multiple wins against ranked opponents. They have a strong defense a reliable offense that is anchored in a stout rushing attack. This is a complete team. Saturday night they are going on the road to Arizona and sure strange things happen down there at night but come on. I know the Wildcats offense seems to be clicking after dropping over 40 points in both last two games including drubbing Washington State last week. But I think the Beavers ability to run the ball will control the clock and limit possessions for Arizona.
Oregon State -3
Virginia +18.5 vs. Miami Over 47.5
The Hoos are the hottest team in the nation right now, you can’t tell me otherwise. Saturday they are attempting to make history becoming the first team to win consecutive road games as a double-digit dog. Miami has lost three of its last five games as a double-digit favorite. Vegas this it’s a possibility. I said it in last week’s game thread, and I’ll continue it here. What the Hoos did last week, more importantly what they showed on the field and their response to Coach Elliott was inspiring to me. There remains plenty of holes that need to be plugged all over this team, but they are scrappy and they have not given up once on the season. In Miami you have a Canes team that was ready to assume their spot at the top of college football after drubbing Texas A&M a month ago and that has come crashing down after back to back losses to GT and UNC. This is a program struggling to find an identity and confidence while, I think the Hoos know who they are and will remain true to it.
Hoos +18.5 Over 47.5