Serious question: How can anyone proclaim with any confidence how any team will perform in the tournament until they see the brackets? So much of success or failure is determined by matchups – as well as sheer luck, as Hoos9412 pointed out earlier.
Maybe it’s true that Virginia would have trouble against a team with a dominant big man. But maybe it will turn out we don’t have to face one. There aren’t many out there.
I see only a half-dozen teams out there that I think we’d struggle to beat, and another half-dozen that we could beat but they’d have a slight edge. To me, how far we advance in the tournament depends on when and if we face them.
I was opining on probabilities, not ceiling, and it was based on where the team is right now, not where the team might be by tourney time. In other words, based on the current metrics and what I’ve seen recently from the team, I think the S16 chances are approaching 50% (i.e., win 2 games with the second game likely against a top 25 team). But odds of reaching an Elite Eight (i.e., win 3 games, with the second game likely against a top 25 team and third game against a top 10) probably falling to 20% or less.
Yup, 21 points. They won 106-63. And we haven’t been to Maui since… (after we beat Oklahoma and lost to Wichita St)
They count as having a dominant big, but probably don’t count as tournament team. Though they’d probably be on with a healthy Jaelin Llewellyn all year…
Statistically so far this is Virginia’s third worst defensive team under Tony Bennett behind only his first two seasons. UVA currently giving up 60.8 points per game after today’s loss to Virginia Tech.
Worst in ppg allowed or is that scaled for pace? This has to be one of the faster playing UVA teams in recent years. I’d be surprised if this team is worse defensively per possession than last years team, but it’s possible.
Not to beat a dead horse but this is where you’d love to see what Traudt could do. Even if he is no better at defensive instincts than BVP, he is obviously taller and has more natural physical gifts. I am not advocating for blowing the redshirt now but it’s why you may not have wanted to shirt him at all
Yeah it’s too late now but if we are losing Kadin/he is deemed unplayable by staff then we need another front court piece. Traudt has size but he’s also probably our team’s 3rd best 3pt shooter behind McKneely and Armaan (when he’s hot). Watching the scrimmage man he’s easily going to be one of the typical UVA 40%+ 3pt shooters that are commonly found on our best teams over the years.
“This team has one problem and one problem only, and that’s Kadin regressing and Papi never developing so that we have no good options at the 5. The small ball lineup is a band aid, a change of pace, and it’s good at times to have it but you can’t only run that, especially if your small ball bigs like BVP and Jayden aren’t athletic and versatile the way Akil, Atkins, Zay, or Braxton were.”
We have no plan B. And our plan A has mixed results vs meh competition. With the redshirts and Kadin Papi and Taine deemed not unplayable, we are not as deep as we thought beginning of the season and our starting 5 has severe defensive limitations and non-consistent offensive shooting outside like Kihei Reece and McKneely.
I just feel like it was foreseeable that Caffaro is bad and that Kadin could of course be injured. Which is why it was weird to ever shirt Traudt in the first place
I really thought Papi would have developed into a nice frontcourt piece for us. Figured he’d be Salt with a better post game, but it’s just never fully clicked for him.
It was Traudt’s decision. Tony even told him he would earn minutes as the season went on a la Dunn (I think more). But at the time, not in hindsight, he was 5th in the front court in terms of veteran experience (even though he was like our 2nd best big both in Italy and in the Scrimmage)
Papi has also had numerous injuries over the year that derailed his progress. Of course that doesn’t mean he would be Hakeem if no injuries but I think that hindered his development into a Salt-like impact.
To be fair we’ve never had this under Tony lol. Maybe Mike Tobey in stretches. Im okay with this not being a part of our offense. Not as much a need. Prefer skilled wings and forwards who can face up and offensive systems that create a lot of drives and cuts (like Villanova, Alabama, and heck what we are doing now. Scored 68 points yesterday with no one shooting well).
I’m good with having one 5 on the roster who you can rely on to get a quick bucket on a post up if you’re going through a scoring slump. The only problem is that finding a big who can do that consistently while also not being a liability defensively is really hard.