Two (maybe controversial) comments:
1.) 1st year Mckneely is better than 1st year Guy.
2.) Our bigs struggle offensively under J-Willy and TB coaching/system. They just don’t seem to develop adequately or quickly.
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Counter point, We’ve only recruited project bigs out of HS. Gill and Mike Scott were solid. Kadin was a known project. Huff was a known project. Mamadi was like only 4 years into playing basketball ever when he committed. We don’t need true bigs when we are running smoothly. Tony has always been a guard dependent coach on the offensive end. And traditional bigs dont fit mover blocker nor 5 out offense.
Bigs at UVA just need to set screens, hit open 3s and attack the rim on drives tenaciously whether it be from the 3pt line or a move in the post from face up position.
We just need to get back to getting athletic 6-7 to 6-9 front court players and more consistent guard play. We can do this new offense while also get back to being a packline school and we dont need top 50 kids to do it.
No more slow front court players. 2-3 playmaking guards on the court at all times. Get some of these wings that end up at top tier mid majors and develop them.
Basically what im saying is offer Ty Davis and Damarien Yates. And maybe Shaedon Simpson. And get Freitag to commit… that’s all Im saying
Notice how I didnt counter point your first point @Wahoo-Architect … McKneely good
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I don’t think your first point is that controversial at all but he’s obviously got a long way to go to reach Guy’s career production. I expect him to be completely unleashed next year. Really wish he had taken more shots against Tech
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Guy had a higher offensive efficiency, higher possession volume and higher shot volume.
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I honestly think that’s the most logical explanation I’ve heard. Said it before and I hold to it. CTBs plan for small ball was what we saw at the end of the Pitt game with Shed on the floor. The UNC game just game at the worst possible time along with the fluke of Bacot getting hurt and Sheds playing his worst game of the year.
Next thing you know team is rolling Shed feels left out and things escalate or trickle down depending on how you look at it.
Placing blame is near impossible if this is what happened. Staff is wrong for poor communication and management. Shed is wrong for poor reaction and not controling his emotions effort etc.
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I think at the same time McKneely, while nowhere near perfect, has a higher defensive ceiling. I dont think they are comparable players.
While McKneely’s offensive contribution right now is running off screens like Guy I think McKneely ends up developing into a Brogdon type guard. Big guard and secondary ball handler on the floor.
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My Guy / McKneely as frosh take: Guy was a better shooter and at more volume. iMac has more potential in other facets, and seems a little bigger/stronger than Kyle.
@Hooandtrue that would be awesome
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Yes, I remember Kadin was the punching bag on here during and after multiple games because people didn’t like how he was playing.
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I think you guys forget how good Guy was as a first year. Here are the per 100 possession and Advanced stats and there is clear daylight.
Guy
McKneely
McKneely is great and is going to be special but Guy was pretty special as a 1st year.
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Yeah, fair. I can’t get the KenPom splits to copy/paste well, but iMac has some nice conference only and better comp splits, but as I said, Kyle is just at a different level as a shooter. I thought Kyle had a chance to break Tony’s records when he was a frosh
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Thanks for the poll. Interesting results.
My take: Kadin didn’t take some massive leap this year, but he had definitely improved relative to last year, and he was no doubt a key piece of this team who we were going to lean on heavily. No idea what’s going on now but I guess at this point I can’t feel confident that we’ll get back to where we were.
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I was screaming last year that we needed to get a 5 out of the portal. When it didn’t happen, I was hoping to end up looking like a reactive idiot as Sheds soared. Well. Regardless, I thought Sheds would be at least be giving us something every night - however modest. If Sheds is going to give us zero the rest of the way we’re in a very tough spot.
I agree with 2). We just don’t do a good job with Bigs. Definitely more miss than hit with our players making offensive leaps. And now it is potentially re-inforcing itself … talented Bigs with upside may be less interested in what we offer than you would otherwise expect.
So it looks like the better comparison is frosh Isaac to Soph Guy … McKneely is better now than Guy was his 2nd year?
No, check out the difference in usage numbers. Also, from an eye test perspective, Isaac’s attempts are mostly spot up catch and shoot while Kyle took a lot of shots on the move with a higher degree of difficulty. My not so great memory also tells me we rarely got to see Kyle simply spot up and shoot. I’m sure someone can give me a comparison, but the way Kyle was able to shoot on the move is difficult to match. Sophomore Kyle also attempted more 2’s than 3’s, which surprised the heck out of me and I would say was a little more advanced that Isaac at this stage at creating his own shot.
All that said, I think Isaac has been a fricking stud the last month and a halfish and I’m super excited about his future.
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Oddly enough, I’d say Guy’s junior year. It was the only season Guy rebounded as well as iMac or had iMac’s huge 2FGA vs 3FGA split. On the other hand, it was also Guy’s best year by far for 2FG% whereas his first year 2FG% was at least in iMac’s ballpark. Also, Guy never attempted as few shots as iMac this year, nor drew fouls as infrequently, turned the ball over as much, or had as few assists (all per possession).
All that having been said, Guy’s first-year ACC-only numbers and iMac’s ACC-only numbers are surprisingly similar so far.
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This would suggest that Guy is a much better defensive player (which at times the eye test supports - though I would never have thought of Kyle as a great defensive player)
I hadn’t meant to cut and paste Kyle’s 2nd year (but it was just easier to do so), interesting that his raw efficiency numbers look worse, though I would assume his overall numbers looked better (as he played more).
First year Guy outshot iMac moderately from both 2 and 3, but they were both vastly better from 3 than 2. Guy attempted 1/2 of his shots from 2 while iMac attempts about 1/4 of his shots from 2. Ends up being enough to advantage iMac.
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No Kadin lol. To be fair his abensce means less clips of him in big moments but if they went back to the JMU game for Dunn’s dunk they could have included Kadin blocks. Did see Papi and Taine though
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So, I did the math. Per possession this year’s UVA squad has allowed 0.964 points and held opponents under 1.0 12 times in 21 games (57% of the time).
Last year’s squad at this point had allowed an average of 0.996 points per possession and only held opponents under 1.0 10 times in 21 games. Last year’s squad then stumbled down the stretch defensively, only holding 2 of its last 8 regular season opponents under 1.0. But in the ACC and NIT tournaments they clamped down, holding 5 of 6 opponents under 1.0 and ending the season with a final average of 0.998.
Looking just at ACC games, the two teams aren’t even in the same ballpark. Through 12 ACC games this season, the team has averaged allowing 0.99 points/possession and held 7 of 12 opponents under 1.0. Last season through the first 12 ACC games the team had allowed 1.073 points per possession and held only 3 of 12 opponents under 1.0. The team improved defensively over the last 8 games, but even over that stretch they allowed 1.026 points per possession and held only 2 of 8 teams under 1.0.
Anyway, point is I suspect your numbers might not be pace adjusted.
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