Figured I’d start a new thread on something that’s bubbling up in other threads. Here are some good resources:
This has all the same info that the committee looks at:
Virginia’s “Teamcast” from Torvik:
Torvik’s handy Teamsheet ranks:
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Thanks for posting. UVA has played a lot better it’s last three games (per Torvik and eyeball), so I’m cautiously characterizing it as an upward trend in performance. I’m gonna wait to see how they do in the next two games against the Techs and maybe the @ Miami game too, however, before I allow my emotions to go all in on the UVA bubble watch. Still remember the disappointment when UVA tanked after the 2013 Duke victory at JPJ. Similar to the 2012/2013 team, the 2021/2022 team has such a small margin for success that small changes in performance or luck can result in a string of bad losses just as easily as a string of good wins.
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I basically feel like we have to go 5-1 over the remaining 6 to feel decent about getting in, which is a very tall task. Would be awesome if we can pull it off, but it’s asking a lot given the schedule. 4-2 could work, but feels like we’d need to win at least two games in the ACC tourney in that instance.
The other thing to keep in mind is that even if things go haywire over the last 6, this team has fight. It’s not impossible to imagine they could win the ACC tourney. I mean, it’s not likely, but neither was winning in Cameron on Monday.
In terms of the bubble, the following bubble and bubble-adjacent non-ACC teams are playing tonight (so we’re rooting against all of them):
Florida
Loyola-Chicago
Seton Hall
SMU
Memphis
Mississippi St
San Diego St
Davidson
Rutgers
Kansas St
Dayton
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
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Yeah, here are my rough thoughts:
- lose at home to Ga Tech and I’ll have to rename the thread.
- Beat GT and lose @VPI? Fairly close to status quo, but puts more pressure to beat Duke again.
- Win both? I think we are squarely on the bubble, can lose to Duke at JPJ and still sneak in under several scenarios.
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Maybe 5-1 with a loss to Duke or 4-2 with only road losses. And making at least the ACCT semis.
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Here are our remaining games.
GT - #152. Q3 now but Q4 is #161 or worse
At VT - #42. Definite Q1
At Miami - #71. Q1 now but cutoff is #75
Duke - #12. Definite Q1
FSU - #85. Q3 now, would be Q2 if top 75
At Louisville - #122. Q2 but cutoff is #135
I tend to think Q1 wins outweigh Q3 losses with the committee so Duke and at VT are the biggest games for us. Going 4-2 with wins over Duke and VT probably gives us a much better chance than 4-2 with losses to those two.
I’ve joked about this before but a 1 point win at Miami is probably better for us than a 20 point win. They are very close to dropping to Q2, and another Q1 win would look really good on our resume.
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Efficiency metrics though obviously weigh heavily in the net calculation. I’d rather beat Miami by 50. We would get a huge bump in net and the efficiency metrics the committee supposedly uses. See tech beating pitt by 27 at home.
I think they value quad records more than efficiency rankings. I’m not sure if it’ll make a difference if we’re #70 or #55, but having another Q1 win would help us in my opinion.
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I just can’t believe we’d be left out with a 14-6 ACC record with the wins that we would have in a 5-1 finish scenario. I understand the ACC is way down but I think we’re a lock in that situation regardless of what our NET/Kenpom ranking is
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- lose at home to Ga Tech and I’ll have to rename the thread.
LOL, maybe just add a “?” at the end of it now!
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I actually don’t think it’s very complicated. UVA needs to go +2 the rest of the way. VT, Miami, and Duke are the +1 opportunities, whereas the other three games are all downside, -1 for losses. Barring going undefeated, best case scenario is they’re still on the bubble going into the ACCT.
They have two things working against them that are unlikely to change much, both that impact perception. The NET rankings, and ACC standings. They would need some real help to climb higher than 5th.
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We could just transition it to generic bubble watch (and nobody will post or care).
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Looking at the movement in NET rankings from yesterday. Seems to be teams bunched together around UVA. Furman moved up 3 spots from 81 to 78 yesterday without playing, and with only one team on their schedule playing. So it won’t take much to move up a bit.
But there’s resistance in the high 60s. Santa Clara only moved up two spots from 69 to 67 after knocking off #22 St. Mary’s. There’s a gap around there.
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See the bubble is such a large thing I can’t argue with this but Duke is in it’s own category in the ACC this year. Beating them is more like a +2. The math with another win over Duke is very different than without it.
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Well, first night of bubble watch results were uh… well they weren’t great. A bunch of bubble teams not only won, but picked up big wins. We just have to keep winning ourselves! (which we obviously needed to anyway)
Florida (won)
Rutgers (big win over Ohio St)
SMU (big win over Houston)
Dayton (won)
Seton Hall (big win over Xavier)
Memphis (won)
Davidson (won)
Oklahoma (big win over Texas Tech)
Cincinnati (won)
San Diego St (winning)
Kansas St (lost)
Loyola-Chicago (potentially bad loss to Bradley)
Mississippi St (lost)
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Yeah, I was checking that out as well. Like every top 25 team but 2 that played tonight lost to a bubble team. Unfortunate.
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1st rule of Bubble watch … never ever post who to root against - it kills our chances.
Never!
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Does that mean when the tournament starts we’ll find out Joe Lunardi\Bart Torvik\Ken Pomeroy are a ghosts and not real? 
We moved above VT finally let’s goooo
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Looking at that the most obvious thing to root for is San Francisco and BYU to keep dropping games to non-Gonzaga and St. Mary’s WCC teams. They’ll fall from in to entirely off the bubble quickly in that league
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