That’s kinda my point. To win a NC, you need at least one really dominant player: lottery pick equivalent. Think Hunter, Brogdan (certainly should have been picked in the lottery) plus a couple other fringe pros. So if you know you need that, and as you say, anyone outside the top 25 (OADs) is a total crapshoot, that’s why getting the Keels of the worlds is so important. Certainly Tony’s dogged pursuit of him for 3 years seems to suggest as much. Missing on top targets is never good.
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I think to everyone else’s point, we’ve been able to find that dominant play-maker outside of the top 25 pretty consistently. I don’t think Tony has ever landed a recruit with a consensus top 25 ranking.
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Agree with everything you said. But nah Tony Bennett doesn’t recruit anyone for 3 years. We’re at 11 months and in a normal year 10 has proved to be the limit. Recruiting starts in Sept each year. There’s no effort by UVA used on anyone prior to that.
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National Class rankings via 24/7 ( ACC finishes, NCAA tournament seeds)
2016
7 (t5 1 t1 t2, 5 1 1 6-7ish)
2017
98 (1 t1 t2, 1 1 6-7ish)
2018
65 (t1 t2, 1 6-7ish)
2019
23 (t2, 6-7ish)
2020
18 (projected 1 yes?, Projected 1 seed)
What is my point? Recruiting success shouldn’t be determined on a year by year basis. Our 2017 recruiting class consisted of 2 players who made little to no contributions on the court and have left the program, yet in the 3 years since that class, UVA has finished no worse than 2nd in the ACC, and no worse than a 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. They actually have a chance to surpass the results of our heralded 2016 group! Why? Because the classes around them filled gaps. Transfers filled gaps. Previous classes got older and more experienced. To be frustrated we don’t have a commitment from a top 100 player yet is understandable. To use previous classes to say Trust in Tony isn’t justified yet seems silly to me. The previous classes are exactly why we should Trust in Tony.
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Yea,these last 6 months have felt like 5 years
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I’d like to here about his play this year.I also think he is gonna be a stud so I’m starving for info about him
I think that their 19 class might’ve been more influenced by the 16 championship than the 18 one. These guys started to get seriously recruited during the summer of 17.
Also, note that their 2 five stars didn’t commit until September and October.
Plus their 19 class is our 20 class on that timeline so their empty 20 class could be our empty 21 class.
Man y’all had me all excited that there was some recruiting news and instead I read twenty different comments on whether or not recruiting rankings matter
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Actually, it can be argued that the 2018 recruiting class was pretty solid, too. This is especially true if you consider that Braxton Key committed that year. Clark has played way above his ranking. While neither Stattmann nor Caffaro has made a major impact yet, they have each shown potential. Stattmann averaged better than 20 mpg as a member of a back court that won 11 of its final 12 games, including an eight game winning streak to end the year. Essentially, it was his first year as a contributor, and he did have mono and a concussion at mid year. All and all, not a bad showing, IMO. It’s unknown if he will continue to develop in his third year, but there aren’t any reasons to suppose he won’t. Caffaro’s numbers, in his first year of competition, are on a par with both Salt’s and Huff’s. While he doesn’t possess Huff’s ball skills, he is considerably more physical, and he has displayed a better touch around the basket than Salt. All four players entered in the summer of 2018. Two have been major contributors, and the other two have shown the potential to be more than practice players. Hopefully, a lot more. I think all that is indicative of a solid class.
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What if CTB trolls us by not offering anybody all summer and then pulling a Keels/Kaufman class like a natty-winning G.
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Had to create an account (long-time Sabre poster) because of just how ridiculous the idea that Tony Bennett hasn’t earned our trust is. One of the more preposterous things I’ve ever read on a UVa forum, so thank you WFS for calling that spade a spade.
Anyway, happy to join the community. HGN - I’ve always appreciated what you do.
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Welcome to LRA @Jerome who I assume is not THAT Jerome. haha
And happy sign up anniversary to my friend Chuck @Hoosthechamp
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I’m not talking about:
- CTB’s quality as a coach
- CTB’s quality as a person
- Our success in the CTB era
- Successes with transfers
I’m talking about CTB’s recruiting record (of high school kids, not transfers), and anyone who says it’s beyond reproach is denying reality. We’ve had multiple weak classes in very recent memory. Can anyone dispute that? Yes, the picture improves markedly when you include transfers, but that’s a different point. My only point was that simply saying “trust CTB” when someone expresses angst about the current state of the 2021 recruiting is ignoring both past history and current events if insisting that a good class will fall out of the sky. It the point instead is that things will work out eventually regardless of recruiting success, that’s a better argument, because coaching skill, program, system, and transfer history matter. But what we’re talking about on this thread is 2021 recruiting. And so far 2021 has been… vexing, as folks who know much more than me (HGN) have alluded to. And the waiting around for supposed near locks while other guys are passed over is reminiscent of past years and at least subject to debate. We have a lousy history with top-30 guys, even if we have a long and seemingly good relationship. That always could change, but it seems unlikely. A kid planning on a short college stay has no incentive to come to UVa (which I regard as a good thing), because they’re not guaranteed immediate time, told defense is a non-negotiable, and have to hang academically. It seems like we should focus on the kids that aren’t going to wait for the Duke or Kentucky offer, and are being realistic about needing and/or wanting to spend multiple years in a program, and needing to develop.
Finally, it’s not the end of the world if 2021 is a zero (my preference over just filling ‘ships to fill them). But it would make 2022 a can’t miss.
Finally, it still seems like there’s hope for 2021, despite the window closing somewhat. Need some good news to cheer up this board.
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Eric probably should have phrased it better originally but nothing wrong with being critical of the coaches. I love the way Bennett recruits in the macro sense. He’s a gambler and totally believes in himself, ie his evaluations. Those gambling ways, being resistant to settling until he absolutely has to, is why we’ve often out-punched our weight in recruiting. It creates highs and lows.
This is just a brutal year for doing things his way, in a process sense. First they took away most of last July, which he uses to evaluate and find those players which he gambles on. Then the dead period wiped out this summer, which essentially is his plan B. We have almost no history of success getting players in the time between because it’s not really part of his strategy. He depends on finding the summer risers when the early guys fall through. Read over his interview with Jeff White. The frustration in not being able to get out there and do his thing is evident.
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I can appreciate some of your points, but your description of the type of player we should go after matches Keels. He was the #35 recruit when we offered in Feb 2019 and only went into the Top 20 after offered by Duke much later. I assume you don’t mean we should categorically dump a recruit in whom much time was invested simply because he jumped into the Top 20 or was offered by Duke. If we was just waiting only for that Duke offer, why would he still be uncommitted 8-9 months later?
By his own comments, he also more closely matches your criteria of a player who is looking for multiple years to develop.
Kaufman is even more typical of a CTB recruit, in terms of ranking, personal goals, and personality.
It seems that the staff is committed to riding this out and seems not to be fretting over path not taken. And I disagree that transfers aren’t closely tied to recruiting - the likely reward to investment ratio may well cause them to wait for those options rather than pursue what they see in the current ‘21 talent pool.
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The moment Keels had that huge game against Sierra Canyon I knew he’d take a big jump in the rankings and it would be very hard for us. It’s just how it is.
Kennedy Chandler committed to the Vols today. I suspect his decision may drive Dukes latest push for Keels
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That likely is where Evans in drawing his conclusion about Dook being the lead for Keels. It’s been pretty easy to see for a while that Chandler was on his way to Tennessee.
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Cake for @Stylesmajor. Some heavy hitters signed up on this date a year ago.
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