NC State game thread (Tues 9pm)

Men's Basketball
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NC State at Virginia, 9:00 PM on ACC Network. It’ll be a Top 25 matchup. The Wolfpack entered the rankings this week at #22, while the Hoos dropped to 8th.

Virginia at 9-3 is tied for 2nd place in the conference, a half game behind first place Clemson. NC State is nipping on their heels at 9-4, tied for 4th place.

About NC State

Head Coach Kevin Keatts has the Wolfpack in great shape to make their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since his first season there in 2018. He’s turned things around in a hurry with help from the transfer portal. Four of his starters transferred in, three of them newcomers this year.

State enters with a 19-5 overall record, 9-4 in ACC play. Winners of eight of the last nine, they’re playing as well as anyone in the league right now. The NCAA’s NET formula doesn’t love them as much as the media though. They’re ranked 42nd, making this a Quad-2 game for the Hoos at home.

NC State Personnel

Terquavion Smith 6’4 So G (18.5 PPG). He’s the ACC’s leading scorer. Can be streaky but he’s extremely confident. Takes by far the most 3-pointers in the league, hitting 35% on over eight attempts per game.

Jarkel Joiner 6’1 Sr G (16.2 PPG). 6th-year senior transfer from Ole Miss is having his best college season. He’s aggressive off the bounce, draws a lot of fouls. 35% from 3.

Casey Morsell 6’3 Sr SG (12.6 PPG). Former UVA guard has become one of the top 3-point shooters in the league, hitting 44%.

Greg Gantt 6’8 Jr PF (2.1 PPG). Transfer from Providence is an athletic versatile defender at the 4-spot.

DJ Burns 6’9 Sr C (12.1 PPG). Skilled wide body big man transferred from Winthrop with a prior stop at Tennessee. They’re running a lot of offense through him lately. He’s had 20+ field goal attempts in two of their last three games.

Sophomore forward Ernest Ross (4.1 PPG) has emerged as a scoring threat off the bench. He had 16 points in Saturday’s win over Georgia Tech. Freshman guard LJ Thomas (3.1 PPG) is shooting 47% from three in limited usage. And junior big man Ebenezer Dowuona (1.8 PPG) backs up Burns.

Other Notes

-KenPom has NC State 39th in offensive efficiency, 63rd on defense. Playing at the 60th fastest tempo.

-Neither of these teams commit many turnovers. Virginia has the 9th lowest rate in the country, NC State has the 3rd.

-NC State forward Jack Clark (9.1 PPG), a LaSalle transfer, has been out since late December. He’s reportedly close to returning, so we could see him on Tuesday.

-The early betting line has the Hoos as a 7.5 point favorite.

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7.5 point favorite?!! That can’t be right

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Joiner can be a problem

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It’s what KenPom has it at. 4.5 on neutral floor based on analytics and 3 for home court. Now, would any sane Hoos fan bet laying -7.5? Hells no

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Business travel this week… won’t be able to watch… hope we can rebound from Saturday!

Oh… also still have 4-tickets available… last 4 I have for the whole season.

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NC State’s defense is propped up by some cold opponent shooting from 3. They also historically try to limit attempts from 3 under Keatts and have done so this season, but they aren’t always successful in limiting three point accuracy (since thats more in the offense’s control). It’s going to be important to get Burns defending out into space and to find ways to punish their use of drop coverage when they try to keep him close to the basket, as I think the threes will come from getting them into rotation to cover Burns’s slowness.

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Sent you a pm about tickets!

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Big time game for ACC conference standings. Need this one.

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Checked Stubhub and tickets are going for cheap. I’m depressed about how non-scary of an atmosphere JPJ is to play in.

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Just waiting for @DavetheWave’s breakdown. He has an uncanny ability to make me scared of every opponent we play lol

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Living in Raleigh, I need this one tomorrow boys. As a general rule, Pack fans are insufferable. It would somewhat help wipe away the thing Saturday that shall not be mentioned

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The ones who scare me are those who say Player X on the other team is a crappy player. And then Sean Pedulla torches us for 22 points.

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I also have 4 upper level tickets for tomorrow night. Willing to get rid of them very reasonably. Too late for my young kiddos unfortunately.

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NC State has 4 all conference level players and a great bench … does that help?? :joy: :rofl:

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And they are an older experienced team with one former Hoo!

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Do we see a lot of papi vs burns?

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Armaan vs Casey in the battle of present vs past. Gimme some Spider-Man memes.

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I’m really surprised that NCSt has the 3rd lowest rate of turnovers in the country. They seem to play a bit loose to me. But credit to them for playing so fast and still taking care of the ball. Another experienced team.

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Lol I’m plenty scared of NC State already but I think it was your Wake preview that had me thinking they might be the best team in the country haha

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Here ya go:
NC State has won 8 of their last 9 and 11 of the last 13 since they solidified their current rotation. Only losses during that stretch are at UNC and at Clemson… after their Euro transfer got hurt.
They are #1 in the nation in turnover % per game even at a fast pace. (20th percentile in pace).
They are top 4 in the ACC in offensive rebounds and steals in ACC play.
They have 3 dudes who get their own shot and create for others - 2 guards and Burns.
Last year State was 11-21 and beat a 21-14 UVA team by 14.
In my opinion the right defensive play is to put Clark on Morsell as he usually isn’t flying around off ball … that we have more size and length with Reece, Isaac and Armaan on Joiner and Smith.
Joiner and Smith have yet to meet a shot they did not like … but they also average 8 assists between them… and of course they are more athletic at just about every position …
Gantt is their Isaiah Wilkins clone.
Burns is a bread truck with skills… gotta make him play defense over and over and try to tire him out on that end to limit his legs on offense.
Casey is their most efficient player and is 3rd in the ACC in true shooting %.

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