I watched 18 minutes of Furman games–the first seven of conference semi, last minute of regulation, overtime, and first five of final. Here’s my scouting report:
We are the better team and will probably win easily, though of course, that’s why they play the games.
What Furman does well on offense, #33 nationally and #51 in offensive tempo on kenpom:
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They start five guys who all shoot 30-60% of their FGA from 3. They all hit 33-39%. This is our biggest challenge.
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They push the pace on defensive rebounds and on opponents’ made baskets. This will NOT be a problem for us. Did UNC’s secondary break under Roy Williams ever hurt us?
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Their offense is 5-out, cutting, screening, dribble hand offs, and pick-and-pop or roll. Picks at the top usually come from Slawson, their 6’7" “point forward” who starts at the 4 and plays a lot at the 5 too. All of our bigs, but especially Papi and Shedrick may struggle to guard the pick and pop.
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They hit 59% of their 2s, #1 in the country! Part of it is shot selection (no long 2s! ) and part is playing bad defenses. We give up 46.5% on 2s.I predict they end the game below 50% from 2.
What they do badly on offense:
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Their motion is not as continuous as our blocker/mover. If they don’t get something quickly, they tend to reset to pick-and-roll.
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They are definitely in love with early 3s including low percentage 3s that are deep or contested or off of one or two dribbles instead of open catch-and-shoot 3s. Their team 3P% is only 34.4%, #159 nationally.
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They don’t offensive rebound much, #150 nationally in OR%.
What Furman does well on defense, which is # 183 nationally, but slows the opposing offense down literally, D Tempo #323:
- Nothing. Literally nothing. OK maybe one thing. They ran a token 1-2-2 press in the SF up 9-2 early. It wasn’t even trapping, just seemed to just want to slow down the opponent. They did the same some in OT. I agree with Bilas that you might as well do that to us to slow us down getting into our sets. Especially since we don’t punish presses by looking to break them to score.
What they do badly on defense:
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There is no ball pressure.
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There is no effort to fight around screens. I saw some truly bizarre defense against ball screens. Once Furman defended a ball screen at the top of the key by both players sagging(?). The ball handler had no resistance until help got to him 6 feet from the rim. It was so awful I couldn’t imagine that was their strategy, must have just been awful execution.
Another time with 1:43 left in OT in the SF: game tied, a simple ball screen at top of key, the defender just tried to run into chest of screener and through him, the screener’s defender stayed with the screener (?) allowing the ball handler a straight line to the rim where help was late, which allowed an easy dump off for a dunk because there was no one to help the helper.
First basket allowed in the final was an uncontested dunk by the center after setting a flare screen that Furman completely struggled to defend, including the screened player just running into the center’s chest. Then a few people jumping out at the guy who came off the flare screen leaving an easy angle for him to pass to the center running straight to the rim. I don’t know if we run that exact action, but we run a lot of flare screens, and we have two of the best passers in the country.
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No active help defense.
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No imperative to get back quickly and set up. They got burned by the same secondary breaks that they burned their opponents with.
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No urgency to contest most jumpers closely.
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Not good rebounding (#115 DR%). I saw a 3 where no one boxed out the shooter and he just cruised in for his own rebound, truly silly stuff.
You might be wondering how they won their tournament? They faced #230, 234, and 185 nationally. The defenses they faced were terrible. I saw several successful straight line drives from their guys that I expect Kihei, Reece, and Armaan to shut down.
Who I expect to have big games
Armaan: Furman doesn’t seem to cover cutters well. He is a master at finding a layup or two against decent defenses that way. He’ll get more on Thursday.
Reece and Kihei: Furman doesn’t seem to cover screens of any kind well. They will get easy drives and they will have open teammates to pad their assist numbers.
Our four bigs: There are definite opportunities to roll for dunks for Dunn and Shedrick and get offensive rebounds and put backs for all four.
Furman Starters
#1 JP Pegues, 6’1”, PG, 81% of minutes, 2 years at Furman, first with starter minutes, 110 ORtg, 21% possessions, 52% 2s, 24% 3s, 69% FT, 27% FTR, decent assist and TO numbers though nothing special
- Took 3 after ball screen when big sagged and hit
- Took 3 after being matched up with a big on a switch
- Looks to push tempo off of rebounds and hit spot up shooters in transition
#3 Bothwell 6’3”, SG, 80% of minutes, 5 years at Furman, last 4 with starter minutes, 124 ORtg, 24% possessions, 61% 2s, 33% 3s, 83% FT, 48% FTR
- He’s not exactly Terquavion Smith, but there aren’t many 3s he doesn’t like.
- Also likes to drive and does a good job of scoring or fouling in the SoCon but I just didn’t see enough quickness or shiftiness to give Beeks trouble. He isn’t Appleby from Wake by any means.
- Down 2 with 30s to go in the conference SF, he drove and got fouled. I do think if it’s close late, he will drive and most likely take the shot.
#5 Foster 6’4”, wing (3 by default), 3 years at Furman, last 2 with starter minutes,
- He can drive against SoCon defenders, but I wasn’t impressed at all. Armaan will shut him down.
#20 Slawson 6’7”, stretch 4/5 also described as a point forward, 5 years at Furman, the last 4 with starter minutes, 117 ORtg, 25% usage, 61% 2s, 39% 3s, 77% FT, 51% FTR
- 20.0 assist rate, second on team to PG Pegues’ 21.8
- Comfortable dribbling down court after his own rebound
- Sets pretty much all the ball screens, and mainly pops to the 3 point line.
#13 Hien 6’9”, stretch 5, 3 years at Furman, all 3 in the rotation, 117 ORtg, 18% usage, 65% 2s, 34% 3, 49% FT
- makes 65% of his 2s but stays at the 3 point line in the 5-out offense. Honestly don’t have a good feel for his game. He has lower minutes and usage than the big three of Slawson, Bothwell, and Pegues.
Could we lose? Of course. They can get hot on contested 3s, we can choke, etc. But our defense should shut down their offense, and their porous defense, which allowed well over a point per possession in both games I watched will allow us to get whatever shots we want with minimal resistance.
I am glad I watched a bit of their games because I now have much more confidence that we will be playing on Saturday.
PS- Massive shoutout to Furman for having five starters who have multiples years in the program and none are transfers. That’s cool that they’ve had a lot of success doing things the old school way.