Yep. With the exception of one guy off the bench, seems like they all can drive and they all can shoot. But not great size. I could see us playing four guards and Dunn or Gardner at the 5. Or three guards with both Dunn and Gardner.
Kinda sounds like Wake except with a higher usage player in the Andrew Carr role? And no Hildreth equivalent in terms of a dangerous secondary ball handler.
Does Tony ever do the fire breathing pre-game speech? Or does he do the firm Xs and Os thing? I suspect the latter which may not match the moment against an underdog who got the fiery oration?
Maybe more like Notre Dame, except Notre Dame occasionally will try to post up someone.
Edited to add: Of course, Iâm providing this scouting report based on condensed videos from two games. So itâs pretty superficial.
âGiant killerâ Furman has won four of its last 30 games vs. P6 teams (since 2010).
Three of those teams were under 0.500 (South Carolina in 2011 and 2023, 25-37, and Louisville in 2022, 13-19), and the other was the defending champ Villanova in the 2019 season, when they started rough and ended up 10 games over 0.500 in the Big East (24-10 overall).
Not that this means anything for Thursday, Iâm just wondering why Seth Davis chose that moniker for a team that hasnât danced in more than 40 years.
Whyâs he smiling? he lost his last game and now heâs losing his entire roster to the transfer portal. Iâd be pretty depressed about that. In fact I am.
Heâs thinking about how sweet that buyout is gonna be.
Heâs been play the long game this hold time.
By the way, since people were kicking Jay Bilas the other day: His in-depth look at every NCAA matchup on ESPN+ predicted Virginia to the Sweet Sixteen, and said some very nice things about the team. Basically, he said he loved watching us, but didnât think we had the firepower to match up with the elite teams in the tournament. (Spoiler alert: He does not consider Furman to be elite.)
I watched 18 minutes of Furman gamesâthe first seven of conference semi, last minute of regulation, overtime, and first five of final. Hereâs my scouting report:
We are the better team and will probably win easily, though of course, thatâs why they play the games.
What Furman does well on offense, #33 nationally and #51 in offensive tempo on kenpom:
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They start five guys who all shoot 30-60% of their FGA from 3. They all hit 33-39%. This is our biggest challenge.
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They push the pace on defensive rebounds and on opponentsâ made baskets. This will NOT be a problem for us. Did UNCâs secondary break under Roy Williams ever hurt us?
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Their offense is 5-out, cutting, screening, dribble hand offs, and pick-and-pop or roll. Picks at the top usually come from Slawson, their 6â7" âpoint forwardâ who starts at the 4 and plays a lot at the 5 too. All of our bigs, but especially Papi and Shedrick may struggle to guard the pick and pop.
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They hit 59% of their 2s, #1 in the country! Part of it is shot selection (no long 2s! ) and part is playing bad defenses. We give up 46.5% on 2s.I predict they end the game below 50% from 2.
What they do badly on offense:
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Their motion is not as continuous as our blocker/mover. If they donât get something quickly, they tend to reset to pick-and-roll.
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They are definitely in love with early 3s including low percentage 3s that are deep or contested or off of one or two dribbles instead of open catch-and-shoot 3s. Their team 3P% is only 34.4%, #159 nationally.
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They donât offensive rebound much, #150 nationally in OR%.
What Furman does well on defense, which is # 183 nationally, but slows the opposing offense down literally, D Tempo #323:
- Nothing. Literally nothing. OK maybe one thing. They ran a token 1-2-2 press in the SF up 9-2 early. It wasnât even trapping, just seemed to just want to slow down the opponent. They did the same some in OT. I agree with Bilas that you might as well do that to us to slow us down getting into our sets. Especially since we donât punish presses by looking to break them to score.
What they do badly on defense:
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There is no ball pressure.
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There is no effort to fight around screens. I saw some truly bizarre defense against ball screens. Once Furman defended a ball screen at the top of the key by both players sagging(?). The ball handler had no resistance until help got to him 6 feet from the rim. It was so awful I couldnât imagine that was their strategy, must have just been awful execution.
Another time with 1:43 left in OT in the SF: game tied, a simple ball screen at top of key, the defender just tried to run into chest of screener and through him, the screenerâs defender stayed with the screener (?) allowing the ball handler a straight line to the rim where help was late, which allowed an easy dump off for a dunk because there was no one to help the helper.
First basket allowed in the final was an uncontested dunk by the center after setting a flare screen that Furman completely struggled to defend, including the screened player just running into the centerâs chest. Then a few people jumping out at the guy who came off the flare screen leaving an easy angle for him to pass to the center running straight to the rim. I donât know if we run that exact action, but we run a lot of flare screens, and we have two of the best passers in the country.
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No active help defense.
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No imperative to get back quickly and set up. They got burned by the same secondary breaks that they burned their opponents with.
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No urgency to contest most jumpers closely.
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Not good rebounding (#115 DR%). I saw a 3 where no one boxed out the shooter and he just cruised in for his own rebound, truly silly stuff.
You might be wondering how they won their tournament? They faced #230, 234, and 185 nationally. The defenses they faced were terrible. I saw several successful straight line drives from their guys that I expect Kihei, Reece, and Armaan to shut down.
Who I expect to have big games
Armaan: Furman doesnât seem to cover cutters well. He is a master at finding a layup or two against decent defenses that way. Heâll get more on Thursday.
Reece and Kihei: Furman doesnât seem to cover screens of any kind well. They will get easy drives and they will have open teammates to pad their assist numbers.
Our four bigs: There are definite opportunities to roll for dunks for Dunn and Shedrick and get offensive rebounds and put backs for all four.
Furman Starters
#1 JP Pegues, 6â1â, PG, 81% of minutes, 2 years at Furman, first with starter minutes, 110 ORtg, 21% possessions, 52% 2s, 24% 3s, 69% FT, 27% FTR, decent assist and TO numbers though nothing special
- Took 3 after ball screen when big sagged and hit
- Took 3 after being matched up with a big on a switch
- Looks to push tempo off of rebounds and hit spot up shooters in transition
#3 Bothwell 6â3â, SG, 80% of minutes, 5 years at Furman, last 4 with starter minutes, 124 ORtg, 24% possessions, 61% 2s, 33% 3s, 83% FT, 48% FTR
- Heâs not exactly Terquavion Smith, but there arenât many 3s he doesnât like.
- Also likes to drive and does a good job of scoring or fouling in the SoCon but I just didnât see enough quickness or shiftiness to give Beeks trouble. He isnât Appleby from Wake by any means.
- Down 2 with 30s to go in the conference SF, he drove and got fouled. I do think if itâs close late, he will drive and most likely take the shot.
#5 Foster 6â4â, wing (3 by default), 3 years at Furman, last 2 with starter minutes,
- He can drive against SoCon defenders, but I wasnât impressed at all. Armaan will shut him down.
#20 Slawson 6â7â, stretch 4/5 also described as a point forward, 5 years at Furman, the last 4 with starter minutes, 117 ORtg, 25% usage, 61% 2s, 39% 3s, 77% FT, 51% FTR
- 20.0 assist rate, second on team to PG Peguesâ 21.8
- Comfortable dribbling down court after his own rebound
- Sets pretty much all the ball screens, and mainly pops to the 3 point line.
#13 Hien 6â9â, stretch 5, 3 years at Furman, all 3 in the rotation, 117 ORtg, 18% usage, 65% 2s, 34% 3, 49% FT
- makes 65% of his 2s but stays at the 3 point line in the 5-out offense. Honestly donât have a good feel for his game. He has lower minutes and usage than the big three of Slawson, Bothwell, and Pegues.
Could we lose? Of course. They can get hot on contested 3s, we can choke, etc. But our defense should shut down their offense, and their porous defense, which allowed well over a point per possession in both games I watched will allow us to get whatever shots we want with minimal resistance.
I am glad I watched a bit of their games because I now have much more confidence that we will be playing on Saturday.
PS- Massive shoutout to Furman for having five starters who have multiples years in the program and none are transfers. Thatâs cool that theyâve had a lot of success doing things the old school way.
And that is why he is called the âheadâ coach!
Alright, you all have been great! Iâm outta here, good night.
The enduring legacy of that Syracuse collapse
This year it seemed weâll try to score when breaking the press, but (1) we have a higher bar for what opportunities are worth attacking, and (2) we wonât do it when holding a lead late
A little but we used to ATTACK the press. We were one of the best programs in the country at punishing teams that pressed us. Part of the reason TB owned Pitino. Also what made that collapse so damn shocking.
Since that Cuse gameâŚnot so much
It takes a certain amount of athleticism and dynamic burst to create and finish strong on a break. We have generally not had that trait since Hunter left.
Thatâs true but we didnât really attack it often with that group either. Maybe it was a Brogdon-AG thing and we havenât had someone to fill those roles since? Or it was a McKay thing and we just kept his sets for one year after he left?
Idk the actual reason but there was a change in our strategy against the press between 15/16 and 16/17. We havenât gone back to the 15/16 and earlier aggressive approach much the last two generations of players.
This doesnât fit my anti-Bilas narrative and therefore I will choose to ignore it.