A lot of the highest teams on that list are bad in kenpom compared to their seeding. We’re at 34, right below Rutgers, who missed the tourney, that’s pretty bad! I think we should all be worried about this. If the team from that bad stretch in February shows up, we can easily lose.
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Taine will definitely get some run in this game.
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It’s also amazing how quickly all these talking heads become experts on these mid majors. Everyone knows everything about Furman and how dangerous they are lol. In the midst of talking about how terrible we are one dropped an interesting stat, Furman has played 2 teams in the top 100, 2, both L’s. State and PSU
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If our team from that stretch you’re referencing shows up, we will lose by 10+.
If we score reasonably well in the first half, we win easily by double digits. Just hope we’re assertive on offense from the jump and not in “feel it out” mode with 6 points in the first 10 minutes
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Furman’s metrics look good because they’ve played a lot of bad teams. Our metrics look bad because we had a four-game stretch where we were awful. We haven’t been a team like, say, NC State that’s been regularly up and down. We’ve been mostly good to very good, with two brief slumps. I think it’s more likely that we continue our good play from the ACC Tournament (and the couple of games before that) than that we revert to those awful slumps.
The matchup does worry me a bit: A team that spreads us out and shoots threes has spelled disaster in the past. Missing BVP will hurt, butI think we can go small with Dunn and be fine. We just need to keep up the defensive intensity, and not let Furman get comfortable.
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We’re above — better than — Rutgers, which is 35th.
I take KenPom with a grain of salt this year.
Playing well enough to win but not by “enough” against FSU, ND, and Louisville meant you got dinged this year, and we had five of those games.
There’s never been a year like that in the ACC that anything less than a blowout vs. half the teams in your conference resulted in a fall, no matter that the opposing coach is a Hamilton or Brey.
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In that case, the “media” would be dumb NOT to pick us to be upset.
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You could just be like Seth Davis and pick the 12, 13 and 14 in nearly every region in order to be right about an upset.
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Sorry to hear about this. My deepest condolences for you.
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With BVP out, we are now focused on one type of offense. We will not be switching back and forth depending on whether BVP is in/on or out. Some benefit to that.
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Kid at that age, gotta do what you gotta do…
Anyway, we need to come out in attack mode, not settle for freakin jumpshots. KC and Beeks need to get downhill, Gardner and yes Armaan need to get in paint. No fadeaways, no 17 footers. Their guards are 6’1, 6’3 and 6’4. Not really the length that causes our guards problems
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Furman has also won 14 out of 15 but been playing like the 70th best team during that stretch. Not the most impressive. The best team they beat was #107 in efficiency.
Yes, if we play like we were playing with injured BVP getting lots of minutes and our triangle offense sputtering, we will lose.
But if we play like we have since then, then we should win.
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Haha! Mine are 5 & 7. They haven’t asked yet and we haven’t offered. Good on you though.
Excited about the match up. I don’t think we could have asked for much more from the committee.
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There is nothing particularly impressive about Furman tbh. Very run of the mill 13 seed. These media members are so excited to pick UVA and SDSU to lose they are going to try to transform Furnan into a giant killer
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Athletic’s 10 most likely upsets:
Top 10 most likely first-round upsets
- No. 4 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 13 Furman Paladins - Man, all the data hates the Cavaliers. Their style of play doesn’t help them, either.
Upset chance: 39.3%
- No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs
If Mississippi State beats Pittsburgh in the First Four
Upset Chance: 37.8%
- No. 5 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs
Upset Chance: 31.4%
- No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 13 Kent State Golden Flashes
Upset Chance: 30.9%
- No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 College of Charleston Cougars
Upset Chance: 28.6%
- No. 6 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack
Upset Chance: 27.8%
- No. 5 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 VCU Rams
Upset Chance: 25.4%
- No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona St. Sun Devils
Upset Chance: 23.6%
- No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers
If Pittsburgh beats Mississippi State in the First Four
Upset Chance: 22.1%
- No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 11 Providence Friars
Upset Chance: 21.3%
Good breakdown from a Furman alum who is also UVA fan, via Twitter. Summarizing here:
I do. Alum. Veteran team. Very well-coached. Prolific and effective 3-point shooting. Not as good defensively as they have been in the past but use some pack line. Can put points up in a hurry but give them up too. Deep. Athletic. Small. If UVA can’t score very tough matchup.
On paper, they should [have a nice matchup]. But more often than not in the tournament it hasn’t played out that way, usually because of the same exhausting thing: UVA can’t score. If UVA doesn’t take control and it’s close late, I like Furman.
It’s a dream matchup for Gardner: Undersized mid-major with nobody who can guard him. It’s a bad matchup for Furman, with somebody like Beekman lining up opposite Mike Bothwell, their best player.
Pegues, Furman’s PG, is an extremely effective penetrator, very strong, and can finish. After the success teams have had bullying Clark lately, this could be a problem for UVA.
Ryan Dunn was built to guard Jalen Slawson, the SoCon Player of the Year, and he’d better be able to because UVA has nobody else who matches up with Slawson at all. You can get in Slawson’s head. He’s emotional, but he’s also extremely versatile and talented offensively.
Furman is well-coached, hard-nosed, and talented offensively. Still, I don’t think they can grind it out with UVA unless UVA just goes out there sleepwalking, which, unfortunately, has happened all too often. UVA better score and take control early. Otherwise, trouble.
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I love this match-up for us. I really do.
The only thing that gives me nerves is our guys getting in their own heads. Can easily happen, we’ve seen it before. Otherwise, this should be ours for the taking. (I never feel this confident).
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I agree, I wasn’t that clear. I guess I mean the tone, in which the media talks about us in the tournament, is dumb. I’ve already heard several talk about us and Furman like it’s a sneaky upset pick lol what’s sneaky about it? People would be wise to call their shot against us as we’ve been known to take a first round exit to a low seed.
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