How would you evaluate what is skill vs. luck? How many mid-major coaches have a multi-cycle track record of evaluating so-called diamonds in the rough and generating sustained success based on a combination of their evaluation skill and their in-game coaching skill? If their track record is so long and distinguished (man, Top Gun was a good flick), why are they still coaching a mid-major?
On the other hand, how do you know whether a guy whose most recent 3-4 year track record is truly indicative of any skill whatsoever? How do you know he didnât simply catch lightning in a bottle by accidentally âidentifyingâ a 1 star who turned out to be a 4-5 star? A 3-4 year track record can look like a meaningful trend but really just be 1 player that takes an average mid-major team to the best team in their league. Every coin-flipping contest has a winner.
Especially if youâre the absolute dawg in Table 1 of this paper who got 60% of his 2800 coin flips to land on the same side in a coin flipping study:
Oh but on the points you make, I broadly agree. Outside of âsuccessful power conference coach taking a power conference jobâ I think this is more a dart throwing exercise than our confident takes on who will or wonât do well would imply. Like if we put together some blind resumes of guys who took power conference jobs, I bet we could find some pairs who had very diverging outcomes that we would not be able to separate based on their resume pre-hire.
Very much so. A lot of folks are never going to be comfortable with that prospect, which is why you get such a mix of strong opinions on either sticking with the warm comfortable blankie no matter how tattered and inappropriately sized it is or chasing after the new hotness AI-powered blankie from the commercials on the CW.
Face it folks, weâre fucked. Eat Arbyâs and stop caring.
Itâs the best possible thing one can do to facilitate acceptance of oneâs inconsequential place in the universe in the context of space and time.
You can either assume youâre entitled to an elite basketball program, because youâre such a precious little snowflake who deserves only the best, or you can eat Arbyâs. Those are the options.
Tianqi nearly clearing the next highest personâs 95% confidence interval is some Usain Bolt-level performance though. He got that dawg in him, but for being good at flipping coins.
Porter, while some people say that imitation is the best form of flattery, replicating Virginia by being down 46-24 to Florida at the half is not what anyone means by that phrase.
Yeah heâs going to get paid $20 million is what was said on the discord (in total from salary heâs gotten to buyout) so it was a worthwhile move financially.
Their projected short list has no overlap with the candidates we have in mind here. Ross Hodge and that Arkansas St coach with the all white wardrobe that Syracuse fans also want are the mid Major risers and then the will wade etc. etc.
Sweet Jesus. We need a welfare check on BDragon. I feel like he is on some weird Ayahuasca retreat with Aaron Rodgers and is being held captive by the bear he wrestled.
Letâs just go beat Carolina. Fuck Carolina. We shouldnât be in awe of them like we were with Duke. We were cautious last night and I hate that. So letâs beat Carolina.
And then beat everyone else that we play after that.