DRAPM likes him but DBPR (Miyaās metric) doesnāt as much. Hereās an AI breakdown of the two metrics, both of which are good by themselves.
DRAPM (Defensive Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus)
What it is: A pure āon-courtā metric that analyzes how the teamās defensive rating changes when a player is on the floor versus off the floor, adjusted for the quality of teammates and opponents.
Strengths: It is considered a āpureā impact stat because it does not rely on box score stats (like steals or blocks), only on point differentials, making it good at capturing off-ball defensive impact.
Weaknesses: It is extremely noisy and requires massive sample sizes (often multiple seasons) to be accurate.
Usage: Used to measure a playerās overall ability to prevent the opposing team from scoring per 100 possessions.
DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating)
What it is: A metric developed by Evan Miya that combines on-off data (similar to RAPM) with box score statistics (like defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks) using Bayesian techniques.
Strengths: It is less noisy than pure DRAPM because it incorporates box score stats, allowing it to be more stable over smaller sample sizes (e.g., a single season or partial season).
Weaknesses: Because it blends in box score data, it might overrate players who chase steals or blocks but are not disciplined team defenders.
Usage: Frequently used in college basketball analysis to measure defensive impact when on-off data alone is too volatile.
Hereās some AI ideas about why there might be a discrepancy ā¦
The āInvisibleā Defender: This player is likely elite at defensive rotation, positioning, communicating, or denying passes, rather than just blocking shots.
System Dependence: The player might be a perfect cog in a specific team defense (e.g., a good perimeter communicator in a switching defense) rather than a versatile defender who can guard anyone.
Role Limitation: The player might be tasked with guarding the opponentās best player but not necessarily creating āstocksā (steals + blocks).
His on/off numbers are very good, which suggests the his strong DRAPM is telling the right story.
Thanks for sharing this. I wonder if our more open system will allow him to finish better? Of course, with that comes he is playing against a much higher level of competition.
I think interpreting his DRAPM is somewhat straightforward: Heās on a good defensive team, the team is better on defense with him on the court vs off, canāt necessarily explain it by crediting the teammates he played with.
Whereas on EvanMiyaās metrics he gets dragged down by a pretty low defensive box score BPR (-0.40).
Which is the right story is kinda in the eye of the beholder.
Hate this narrative. There are only 30 games a season, all contested among extremely competitive people who have strong incentives to win. To the extent anyone is trying even harder in the tourney, we were too.
I stand by my āwe had bad luckā in the tourney explanation. Most people will never buy it because they need to point to something. Humans love stories. But read Fooled by Randomness or play poker for a living, and you can see how long and how bad luck can get. Maybe Iām wrong about why we underperformed in the tourney, but I am 100% sure the explanation above is wronger.
Plenty of other teams have had injuries and still advanced - look no farther than Auburn and Texas Tech in 2019 ā¦ just excuses in Hooville for bad losses and early losses.
And yes that was Auburns best player - got hurt against North Carolina and they won. Then they beat Kentucky - then they could have beaten us if Pearl wasnāt stupid fouling Jerome 45 feet from the basket with a second left.
Shoot even Gonzaga was respectable with a win and a 6 point loss this year without their best player.
P.s. As a Celtics fan - they are being exposed right now for having less talent in the playoffs than the Sixers when everyone plays as hard as the Cs did during the season.ā Same as Hoos 2012-2024 ā¦Just canāt have dudes 5-9 in your rotation be Vooch, Garza, Hauser, Scheierman, Walsh, Queta ā¦ soooo unathletic
Virginia under Coach Bennett wasnāt Auburn, Texas Tech, or Gonzaga. I think a case can be made that those things he nutured in the team which led to success also made the team susceptible to injury. As I said, the team ran like a well tuned engine, but when it was out-of-tune, the team struggled. All the evidence of his tenure supports that. Perhaps, he could have done things differently which might have mitigated the effects of those injuries, but those changes might not have allowed the success Virginia enjoyed during that time. Itās worth noting that neither Auburn, Texas Tech, nor Gonzaga enjoyed the same sort of successful seasons which Virginia had, and none of them won a national title. Go āHoos!!!
St Hunter got yanked by Tony at the end of the Purdue game. He was inserted back into the game in OT and took over but I never saw him that frustrated as he was trying to guard Carsen Edwards at any other point in his time at UVA.
In what technically counts as UVA transfer news, my older daughter was just accepted as a transfer to UVA (and is figuring out how to accept the offer as we speak). Probably no impact on any UVAās sports teams (she was all central VA in tennis in HS, but is pretty far from being able to contribute to the womenās tennis team), but weāre thrilled for her and Iām personally delighted to finally be the parent of a Hoo.
