I think if the number is anything like 500k (NBA two way or NIL) there is no difference anyway. Meaning he would wanna be a pro at that level of money
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He’s going to get a variety of feedback. Some teams might say go back to UVa and work in x,y, and z. Others might give him a 2nd round grade or mention the 2-way. I don’t think any nba evaluator will tell him to transfer. A lot of moving parts, depends on how he does and workouts and what teams he trusts and listens to more.
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Is there any way he’d get 500k for staying at UVA? did Clark make even close to that? I don’t see that. Pack’s 800k for 2 years was a big deal at the time and Miami has that big high profile NIL booster who says he’s paid out about 10 mil total for all UM athletics. Maybe Reece is offered half a mil somewhere else. Maybe he even gets it from us.
Whatever the case, I hope he makes the best decision for him and his future and I’ll support him whatever he decides.
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500k
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No chance 500k
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The only question is does staying another year have potential to get him into the first round because the present value of even a small increase in first round chance is huge
First rounders are allowed more room for error, get bigger first contracts, etc
So even if the salary difference was 1mil vs 500k have to also look at the other benefits
E.g., if you asked Kyle guy if one more year in college would have been worth a 15% increase in first round probability I would guess he would say yes
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Exactly this. If your first job is 500 or 1mm the only real difference is the security and added benefits
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And the second, third, fourth, fifth raises are much bigger when you by start by making 1-2million instead of 500k
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Ha. Yes 10-20% is different on bigger numbers
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N/A
Nailed it right there.
And I think the answer to that question can only be answered by Reece and the scouts once he works out in person. If he can show enough to eek into a first round prospect it makes sense. But that’s a big mountain to climb to go from off the board to first round.
But it’s a lot easier to chase that dream and work the Gleague when you’re JA or Ty and have that first round contract and paycheck to fall back on. vs always being last one in first one out as a 2nd round guy hanging on for a Gleague invite.
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This is the correct decision framework, but will he use it?
I don’t think Kyle could have improved his stock after the championship.
I do think Reece could potentially improve his stock by a lot and would be unlikely to lower his stock by returning, barring injury.
I also think he could get paid at another school and have the same chance of improving his stock, and that is the scenario I fear the most.
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Agreed, Kyle reminds me of Matt Leinhart at USC when he came back after winning the Heisman and the national championship. He got skewered by scouts and press who nitpicked his game to death and it hurt his stock. There’s something to be said about having some showmanship and getting out on a high note. Kyle was at a peak with his Final Four run and FF MVP. What’s Reece’s peak? A run in a Las Vegas tournament that no one knows the name of? A couple nice dunks? He has space to grow and improve. Kyle did not.
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I’d be certainly be ok with Reece returning.
I’d be ok with Reece being a 1st round pick.
I’d be ok with Reece being 2nd round and going G league.
Wouldn’t love it but I’d even be ok with Reece going undrafted but getting paid to play in Europe.
The thing that would make me sick is he pulls out of the draft but transfers.
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This isn’t how players look at it. Guaranteed contract. That’s what matters. Top 40 or so
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Yep, if he has a team promising him the top 40, he’s gone.
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The only way Kyle was going to improve his position was to grow taller. Dude could shoot lights out, but his size and athleticism is what it is.
To me, in my opinion, what I think (please take note this is my personal view only) is that Reece is not an NBA player. I am not an NBA fan at all so I don’t profess to be an expert on NBA talent, but from the little I watch, I fail to see the need for a 6’3" guy who plays solid defense. Reece is a great athlete, but the dudes up there are straight up freak of nature athletic.
But I do think there are areas he could improve on that could make him more attractive to the NBA. A year truly with the keys could help. He could pull a JA and spend a summer w/ Altizer and really improve his outside shot. He could improve his mid range shooting. He could improve his handle. The risk/reward on returning seems decent to me if I were in his shoes.
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NIL was 2 years too late or Kyle would have gotten paid as a returning Senior coming off of a national championship/F4 MOP.
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There is one big difference though. 500k at UVA is a lot more money than 500k in the pros.
AT UVA he would still have all expenses paid.
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500k once is less than 2-3 times. Like 3 is more than 2 when shooting jumpers
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