Maybe someone left the parking brake on. #cartalk
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Top 3 non conference games this year might be tougher than last yearās
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When is the natty window?
- This season
- Next season
- Beyond next season
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Kinda torn on this. Before Ft Myers, I thought maybe this season?** Now Iām more like probably not? But next season we will be breaking in a new PG and will probably lose a probable/potential first rounder. And Iām not sure I see our next transcendent talent (Dre, Malc, sorta Joe - maybe not even Ty?) on our roster or signed recruits yet.
** we are probably talking like it woulda been like really unlikely but who knows - 2 first round talents. Senior PG. who knows? But now, Iām obv closer to ānahā
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Cavs corner guys talked about it on their podcast last week. Rohde looks gassed by the first TV timeout. Big adjustment to playing D at the level Tony requires. Like you said he might not get there cardio wise until next year
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Just depends how good Bliss is right away. If heās freshman LP level and everyone other than Dunn (and the seniors, obviously) comes back we could compete next year. Otherwise 25/26 is the reasonable bet
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It is a real thing when things speed up etc. adjusting your own game to the pace, speed, and physicality plus length
Rohde getting outsized minutes so far so has a chance to figure it out quicker
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Itās hard to really say anything definitive without seeing what a teamās draw is in the tourney given how much that can dictate postseason success, but I agree that even assuming we havenāt gotten close to hitting our ceiling yet this doesnāt really feel like a F4 caliber team. I would say weāre a first weekend tourney team with a S16 ceiling based off of where I think we end up by March and what Iāve seen from teams considered to be āeliteā this year, but again that doesnāt really mean too much. I wouldnāt have considered San Diego State or FAU as being F4 contenders last year, or UCLA in 2021.
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2025-2027 is our window. Need a wave of seasoned players in our system.
2025/2026 rotation: IMac (4th year), Eli (RS 2nd year), Bond (RS 3rd year), Bliss (RS 2nd year), Blake (3rd year), Robinson (RS 2nd year), Rohde (4th year), Cofie (2nd year), Dante (4th year)
How that group performs, and whether we lose any of them early will be the defining element of the 2nd half of TBās UVA legacy.
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Weāll need a ābig threeā to emerge from that group. Itās possible.
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This is exactly what I was going to say. This year and next will be fun imo and wouldnāt rule out a run if we get hot at the right time but 2025-26 is the year thatās lining up to be special. Then again weāve said that about this year and had unexpected attrition. I think we should (hopefullyā¦maybeā¦please god) be able to keep everyone around and that would mean a really special roster with 2nd year Bliss (3rd year in the system) running the show. Weād be experienced and talented at every position.
Next year could be special if Dunn comes back but thatās probably a 30% chance if that.
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2025-2026 would have Bliss in his 3rd year, McKneely in his 4th year, Rohde in his 4th year, Bond in his 4th year; and Gertrude in his 3rd year. Thatās just our guard rotation.
Buchanan is on a very good trajectory so by year 3 he could be a monster. Cofie is an unknown but has the pedigree and that would be his 2nd year. Robinson has all the tools and would be in his 3rd year. Need another big thought.
Point is thatās a lot of talent to work with and would have the requisite experience if everyone sticks around. The right formula for a very good TB team
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What gives me some hope for next year is that if Dunn does go pro and becomes a first rounder, we should in theory have a chance to land a really high level transfer wing to come in and replace him. The sales pitch is right there, come in for one season and be the next JA/Dre/Murphy/Dunn for us. We can make you a lottery pick if all goes well.
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Or at least a big 2. 13/14 only had Joe and Malcolm at that high high level but guys 3-7 were very good players. Could see something like that again. The other 4 contending level teams weāve had all had a legit big 3:
14/15: Malcolm, Justin, AG
15/16: Malcolm, AG, London
17/18: Kyle, Ty, Dev
18/19: Kyle, Ty, Dre
One thing for certain is we need a 2/3 to emerge as a 1st team All ACC type of reliable scorer. At least one of the Isaac, Rohde, Gertrude group has to become a Joe, Malcolm, or Kyle type of first option
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I certainly agree that the best bet is sometime beyond the next 2 years, because this year we are likely a top 4 seed at best and next year I think we will have a lower top gear than this year. The argument for this year, however, has some merit. We have 1 of (if not the) best point guard in the country, best wing defender in the country, and a talented young team that should improve a lot over the next few months. We also have some big warts, but they could get heavily addressed by March. Simply put, I think this is our highest upside team since 19. So why not this year? Iām going long on 23-24.
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With a bought-in, not-in-CTBās-doghouse version of Shedrick, the window would be right now. And if the young guys gel and things click, its still possible itāll be this year (among other things, Rohdeās rebounding is astonishingly poor so thereās room for a LOT of improvement). Given the likely departures of Beekman and Dunn, Iād be extremely surprised if the team is particularly good next year.
But after that, wow, there is a TON of young talent on the team and committed. If they can keep most of it together and have them gel, the team could be really special. But looking that far out is really no better than reading tea leaves so Iām kinda just humoring myself.
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Yep, totally agree. And as he gets more comfortable, assertiveness on offense will come.
This is on point. Itās good to play great defense but we must have a few players that are going to emerge offensively. Kyle, Ty and Dre are players that came into our system offensively skilled but were still able to get better year to year.
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I have a hard time deciding whether he looks like that because he is tired or because heās a pasty white guy with early signs of alex caruso hair.
Would love for that to be the case, but weāre just so thin inside. Unless Minor comes out of nowhere to be a MAJOR contributor, weāre left with maturing a couple freshman bigs. Our frontcourt/backcourt maturity should line up by 2025/2026 if we can keep everyone.
Dunn somehow coming back next year and a transfer big could be something, but I like the odds of 25/26 a bit better
That hasnāt really mattered for us outside of 2019 (in a good way) and maybe 14 and 15 (in a bad way).
How about we get in - and then to the 2nd round before worrying about the bracket. We havenāt beaten a better seed than us this century I think.
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