Thatās the million dollar question. For me the goal for the program should be a consistent 8 win team. Thatās high but honestly is not unreasonable if the right pieces are put in place. The facilities help a ton and if we believe what early recruiting returns are telling us it is helping. Scheduling will be important. Building a schedule that bakes in a couple wins a year will go a long way to that. Finally having a staff and program that puts a smart effective product on the field. The ACC is not a world beater conference most of the teams live in that 7-9 win window and cannibalize each other. You can concede the top of the conference to the Clemsonās and FSUās and still have enough meat on the bone to eat.
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Late into this discussion but Iām with Dragonā¦ pop tarts bowl should be the fair reasonable goal every year. 7-8 wins should be achievable on atleast a semi consistent basis.
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Iāve kinda always felt that Broncoās success here was mainly because of Perkins.
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I see this quote all the time in defense of Tony & against Bronco, and I really donāt understand the logic. Armstrong was arguably (and certainly statistically) a better quarterback than Perkins under Bronco. Broncoās early defenses before he handed over the reigns to Howell were great. And then the Perkinās years won a Coastal and got to an Orange Bowl. Iād say that Broncoās successes were at least moderately diversified.
What about Tony? Iād argue that any rationalization of his success to date is more dependent on 1 player (Washington) than any survey of Broncoās tenure. More or less everything outside of Washington, the program has been a disaster since Tony took over. Defense was average in year 1 then horrible in year 2. Special teams are consistently a dumpster fire. The offense was historically bad in Tonyās first year (following Broncoās record offensive year) then buoyed by Washington last year. Recruiting has been at the bottom of the ACC, and frankly, similar to Broncoās classes - perhaps without the promise of 4 or 5 star LDS talent.
Bronco won more. And he showed signs of successful coaching in more ways than whatever success you want to attribute to Tony.
Now Tony still has time (well maybe 12 months) to show signs that he can start to approach Broncoās level of successā¦but we are a worse program since the coaching change.
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But why? All three QBs Broncoās teams rolled out put up better performances than anyone weād had in years (Benkert, Perkins, pre-coaching change Armstrong). Maybe he was good at IDāing and deploying QB talent. It wasnāt a one-off.
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Iām even later to the discussion but bring back the ghost of George Welsh - 7 wins and a bowl bid pretty much every year. Iām happy.
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Something is coming.
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Iām glad to give Bronco credit for 2018 and 2019. Sure, he had Perkins, but he got the most out of him, which many coaches wouldnāt have. Those were good years and Bronco did a good job.
But ā¦
Those were his only winning seasons. He was 8-17 before that, and 11-11 afterward, and under .500 for his Virginia career. Taken as a whole, itās a very unexceptional record. Iām with Dragon: This programās goal should be eight wins a season and a bowl that people have heard of.
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Why should this program be eight wins and a bowl? This is the part that always confuses me. What program is eight wins and a bowl every year? Are we genuinely comparable in any way?
NC State last 10 years
| Wins | Losses |
|---|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 |
Wake Forest
| Wins | Losses |
|---|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 |
Pitt Football
| Wins | Losses |
|---|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 |
Georgia Tech
| Wins | Lossses |
|---|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 |
| 3 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 |
Picked a random sample of ACC teams and their records over the last 10 years. I donāt think itās outlandish to think Virginia should expect and have a standard to out perform the pace that Georgia Tech has been on, or essentially match the pace of a Pitt or an NC State. A team that can target 7-8 wins a year gives you a fanbase that think they have a fighting chance in most most every game. Thatās not too much to ask/expect
Iām not trying to to convince you to change your mind @norfolk_hoo just laying out some food for thought.
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We were consistently getting eight wins and a bowl in the 90ās and early to mid 2000ās. I know the landscape of college football has changed drastically but itās not like the ACC as it currently stands is a gauntlet, that yearly goal in theory should be obtainable more often than not.
Unfortunately so much apathy has set in around the program that weāve gaslit ourselves into believing any less than that is still acceptable.
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Most, if not all, college football success is derived from above average to exceptional QB play.
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I said that eight wins and a not-obscure bowl should be our goal. I didnāt say we were going to hit it every year. Any team that hits its goal every year is setting its goal too low. But we should reach it more often than not.
Iām also fine with setting the goal at 7 wins, if we think 8 is too ambitious. But a winning season every year should be the bare minimum, and I donāt think thatās really asking a lot.
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True, howeverā¦
Welshās best years were with Shawn Moore, but we won plenty outside of that time too though. He won with Majik. And Secules. And Blundin. And Groh.
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Best way to have a sustained, successful program in college football is to have a stout front 7 and a strong running attack. Stop the run on defense and run the ball down the opposing defenseās throat. Our teams under Welsh consistently did both of those things, great LBās every year and at least one standout RB behind a quality OL.
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Youāre right on track. Over the last 10 years Hoos have averaged 5.1 wins a season. 7 wins should not feel like an impossible mountain to climb especially in the ACC where the entire conference hovers around that 7 win mark and do not have realistic ambitions of making the CFB.
I agree with the premise but I do think relying on a stout running game in college football in 2024 is like relying on CTBās offense. It can work, but it aint the best option. Even at this point Wisconsin has opened up their playbook.
I do think you are spot on with the front 7 on defense. A front 4 who can get a pass rush and linebackers that can cover space is essential. Especially when itās near impossible to lockdown an entire receiving group for a game.
On offense you need to become a lineman factory. The Hoos best years coincided with a steady string of solid to amazing Oline. If you lock that up, it doesnāt matter if you throw it 20 times or run it 20 times youāre going to find production.
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All of whom played in the NFL. You donāt make an NFL roster ā even as a seldom-used backup QB ā if youāre not pretty good.
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More saying that it establishes the floor of your program. You canāt win a national title or even a conference title just doing those two things, but you can consistently win a minimum of 6-7 games by winning in the trenches even if your skill position players are average at best.
Itās where a program like us should be putting our main emphasis on, get as much playable depth along the OL and DL as you possibly can and then build outward.
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