I need to go back over my bracket again. Must beat GT for sure. I think 2 of the other 5 will likely have us in without too much to sweat, although the caveat is always who those two are and how the rest of the bubble plays out. We also cant afford too many more double digit losses. For instance if WF comes in and beats us by 20+ that changes things.
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I think coaches either are ignorant of the margin of victory element of this or just dont care and prefer to be gentlemanly. But beating teams by 10 vs 20 is absolutely a huge deal in this era. I get getting some time for those that dont play much, but that IMO should be the last minute or two.
I have no way to prove this but if we would have lost by say 2/3 points last night instead of 11, I bet our NET is a few spots better.
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Bart’s tool has us 7th out if we beat GT and lose the rest. If we beat GT and any other team (besides Duke) we’re in the first 4. If we beat GT and Duke, 10 seed. If we win only the games we’re currently favored (Wake, @BC and GT), 11 seed.
Very firmly on the bubble this year.
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If Pitt wins the rest of its games except for @Wake and @Clemson, they’re firmly on the bubble and could give the ACC 6 teams assuming Wake makes it too.
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Eamonn today…
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More diagnosis than prescription, I’d say. Which is fine, he’s not our coach! Links to the ShotQuality standings, which are interesting:
https://shotquality.com/team-standings
However, it is also kinda confusing, as I’m not sure if the standings are ranking purely on shot quality or if they are incorporating other stuff as well. Because Houston has a super low “rim and 3s” rate (a little lower than ours actually), and their adjusted offensive shot quality is rated at #5. I don’t see how that can be true unless the standings are really just adjusted efficiency ratings that incorporate the full four factors (shooting, rebounding, turnovers, free throws).
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Looks like an average of offensive and defensive shot quality (a little counterintuitive)
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Our guys just can’t get open to shoot more 3s.
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But even if you sort by just the “offensive shot quality” column, Houston is top 5. They take the 7th-most mid-range 2s in D1. Does not compute.
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Yeah I mean I agree in general but his diagnosis would benefit from a deeper qualitative look at what we’ve tried and our personnel.
iMac doesn’t have as much of a capability to shoot right off screens - at least not as this stage - as Harris or Guy for example. He’s getting there but not quite there.
Also, we’ve been pulling our hair out when Groves and iMac don’t let it fly from 3. The set designs are there - we’ve been trying them with some good success.
Finally, we’ve been playing like top 50 offense recently. Not insane but not the convenient 107th that Eamonn references. The number is a bit misleading based on what the current team is.
Anyway, I generally agree but I think the ceiling on what we can do is limited because of 1) who our 3 point shooters are, 2) we’ve already tinkered and the trend is already in the right direction, Pitt notwithstanding.
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Good question. I’d guess they incorporate ORs. Do they somehow incorporate how “open” a shot is? Would seem difficult but 
…
Yeah, I think they incorporate all the four factors somehow. Because the offensive SQ standings are very close to Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency standings. If it were just rating shot quality, it would probably track closer to the effective FG% standings.
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They have a bit of a marketing problem. If they’re too close to normal efficiency ratings / 4 factors stuff, what’s the point? But if they’re too far away, and look wacky, then you’re in “LOL, you crazy!” territory.
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Thats because other guys guard them and dont want them to shoot more threes
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I thought shot quality incorporated the player shooting, right? Like an iMac 3 > Minor 3
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Trying to decide which ACC tourney games to purchase and when. Want to put it to the group …
For the best chance of catching Virginia’s first game, would you buy:
- tix to the 2 and 3 seed quarterfinal games
- tix to the 1 and 4 seed quarterfinal games
- tix the Wednesday slate (5, 6, 7, 8 seeds)
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voters
And when would you buy:
- buy now
- wait until after our game Saturday
- wait until after our game Monday
- doesn’t matter. nothing matters.
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voters
Given it’s looking like UVA and Wake are probably competing for the 3 and 4 seeds*, waiting till after Saturday’s game could be pretty informative in answering survey question #1.
*but anything can happen and nothing matters
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