🏀 UVa Men’s Basketball - February 2024

But even if you sort by just the “offensive shot quality” column, Houston is top 5. They take the 7th-most mid-range 2s in D1. Does not compute.

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Yeah I mean I agree in general but his diagnosis would benefit from a deeper qualitative look at what we’ve tried and our personnel.

iMac doesn’t have as much of a capability to shoot right off screens - at least not as this stage - as Harris or Guy for example. He’s getting there but not quite there.

Also, we’ve been pulling our hair out when Groves and iMac don’t let it fly from 3. The set designs are there - we’ve been trying them with some good success.

Finally, we’ve been playing like top 50 offense recently. Not insane but not the convenient 107th that Eamonn references. The number is a bit misleading based on what the current team is.

Anyway, I generally agree but I think the ceiling on what we can do is limited because of 1) who our 3 point shooters are, 2) we’ve already tinkered and the trend is already in the right direction, Pitt notwithstanding.

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Good question. I’d guess they incorporate ORs. Do they somehow incorporate how “open” a shot is? Would seem difficult but :man_shrugging:…

Yeah, I think they incorporate all the four factors somehow. Because the offensive SQ standings are very close to Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency standings. If it were just rating shot quality, it would probably track closer to the effective FG% standings.

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They have a bit of a marketing problem. If they’re too close to normal efficiency ratings / 4 factors stuff, what’s the point? But if they’re too far away, and look wacky, then you’re in “LOL, you crazy!” territory.

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Thats because other guys guard them and dont want them to shoot more threes

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I thought shot quality incorporated the player shooting, right? Like an iMac 3 > Minor 3

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Yes. And a bunch of other stuff too:

https://shotquality.com/stats-explained

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Trying to decide which ACC tourney games to purchase and when. Want to put it to the group …

For the best chance of catching Virginia’s first game, would you buy:

  • tix to the 2 and 3 seed quarterfinal games
  • tix to the 1 and 4 seed quarterfinal games
  • tix the Wednesday slate (5, 6, 7, 8 seeds)
0 voters

And when would you buy:

  • buy now
  • wait until after our game Saturday
  • wait until after our game Monday
  • doesn’t matter. nothing matters.
0 voters

Given it’s looking like UVA and Wake are probably competing for the 3 and 4 seeds*, waiting till after Saturday’s game could be pretty informative in answering survey question #1.

*but anything can happen and nothing matters

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One thing I’d like to see more of is Reece shooting more opportunistic 3s. I think he’s a better shooter than the %s Indicate and he will be able to get more clean looks than iMac or Groves. Still think those two should let it fly whenever they’re open but I don’t necessarily think they should be shooting more if they’re covered like a blanket. If Reece can hit 2-3 from deep per game, I think we become an entirely different team to defend.

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I’m a huge Eamonn fan, especially if he’s writing about Virginia, but this particular article felt kind of thin on actual content (it doesn’t go much deeper than the headline). Ah well. It did give us this line:

(Also, Taine Murray could play a bit more? There’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.)

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Wait til after the Ga Tech game
On the 9th

IME, QF tickets are cheap at the stadium/on stubhub right before the game. Pretty easy to move into the best sections too. So I’d wait until day of. But at least wait until after WF game. A win makes 2/3 seed look way more than 50/50 IMO.

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If we’re playing Wednesday, I don’t think we’re making the tournament.

I’m not trying to make money for the conference, but there are packages on sale for the entire tournament on sale.

https://am.ticketmaster.com/monumental/ACCTournament

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Ferber on the Cavs Corner podcast used the FR words: front runners

52:15

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And IMac and Groves might be closer to the ceiling for 3P volume than people might appreciate. Among high majors, the top 10 players in 3PA volume are shooting like 14-15 threes per 100 possessions (and one outlier guy who is shooting 18). IMac is at 11, Jake is at 10. So yes they should be closer to that top end, but that by itself is not going to turn into a big difference in team 3P rate. Our percentage is high as a team because our good shooters take a huge share of our threes, but the rate is low for the same reason. The high volume 3P teams have like 6 to 8 guys shooting more than 7 threes per 100, but we have 3. So we would need the volume to increase from the other guys too, and that only looks profitable right now for one guy (Taine).

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Right, that was kind of my problem with the Brennan piece yesterday. After IMac and Jake, the only other way to increase the number of three-point attempts is to ask Reece and Rohde to take more shots. And each time either of them shoot a three, it’s an adventure. He did briefly mention the possibility of more Taine Time, which could be interesting…

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We obviously need to win today and that is most important, but we need to pull for MIami too. Their NET is 73 this morning and the play at BC today. If they fall out of the top 75 our home win over them turns to quad 3 and we lose a Q2 win. Currently we have 2 Q1 and 4 Q2s we dont need to lose any and need to keep adding.

Also Cuse at GT today represent two Quad 3 wins for us. Cuse has a NET of 87 and GT a NET of 142. If say Cuse annihilates GT today their NET could climb up close to 75 and if GT annihilates Cuse their NET could climb back close to 135.

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